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mainframe
mainframe
Joined: Feb 19, 2015
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May 26th, 2015 at 7:14:19 AM permalink
Hi all. I have never posted before on the forum but I do understand basic craps payouts, true odds, etc.
I was at Tropicana A/C this weekend play a $10 min, $2000 max craps table. A high roller walked up to the table with a girlfriend by his side.
He made the following combination bet repeatedly:

$500 place bet on the five (payout 7:5)
$100 hard six (payout 9:1)
$100 hard eight (payout 9:1)
$200 any seven (payout 4:1)
$1000 field bet (payout 1:1 on 3,4,9,10,11; payout 2:1 on 2 or 12)

With that combo bet, at least one bet pays on any roll except when an "easy" six or eight is rolled. I watched him roll three times and hit the field all three times, but after that I walked away. I joked to him "I can't play on this table, its too scary". He replied "My heart is pounding a mile a minute" as he walked off.

Seems like a foolhardy betting strategy, but is it?

I was wondering if someone can help me calculate the combined house edge and expected value for that combination of bets. If there is an easy pre-built spreadsheet program or formula to compute the above, please let me know.

Thanks all for your time.

Sincerely,
Mainframe
Canyonero
Canyonero
Joined: Nov 19, 2012
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May 26th, 2015 at 12:39:44 PM permalink
Can't help you with the calcualtions, sorry. I can tell you, however, that this strategy is slightly superior to this one:

Each time the dice have been rolled, flush $100 down the toilet.
MidwestAP
MidwestAP
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May 26th, 2015 at 1:11:39 PM permalink
Well you have a combination of bets that may take more than one roll to resolve, and bets that are one roll bets. So let's calculate it as a per roll house edge:

Place the 5 is a 4.00% HE, with a 1.11% edge per roll --> $500 x 0.0111 = $5.55
Hard Six and Hard Eight are 9.09% HE, with a 2.78% edge per roll --> $200 x 0.0278 = $5.56
Any Seven is a one roll bet with a 16.67% HE --> $200 x 0.1667 = $33.34
Field Bet is a one roll bet with a 5.56% HE --> $1,000 x .0556 = $55.60

So, yes, Canyonero is correct, each roll is costing him $100 (give or take a few pennies).
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
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May 26th, 2015 at 1:19:27 PM permalink
Quote: mainframe

Hi all. I have never posted before on the forum but I do understand basic craps payouts, true odds, etc.
I was at Tropicana A/C this weekend play a $10 min, $2000 max craps table. A high roller walked up to the table with a girlfriend by his side.
He made the following combination bet repeatedly:

$500 place bet on the five (payout 7:5)
$100 hard six (payout 9:1)
$100 hard eight (payout 9:1)
$200 any seven (payout 4:1)
$1000 field bet (payout 1:1 on 3,4,9,10,11; payout 2:1 on 2 or 12)

With that combo bet, at least one bet pays on any roll except when an "easy" six or eight is rolled. I watched him roll three times and hit the field all three times, but after that I walked away. I joked to him "I can't play on this table, its too scary". He replied "My heart is pounding a mile a minute" as he walked off.

Seems like a foolhardy betting strategy, but is it?

I was wondering if someone can help me calculate the combined house edge and expected value for that combination of bets. If there is an easy pre-built spreadsheet program or formula to compute the above, please let me know.

Thanks all for your time.

Sincerely,
Mainframe


The overall EV is the summation of the EV's of all of the bets... so it's a lot of bets, but simple math.

EV = EV(5 place) + EV(hard six) + EV(hard eight) + EV(any seven) + EV(field bet)

(These can all be found on the Wizards craps appendix: http://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/1/ )

EV = 500*(-.04) + 100*(-.0909) + 100*(-.0909) + 200*(-.1667) + 1000*(-.0556)

Thus, EV = (-20) + (-9.09) + (-9.09) + (-33.34) + (-55.6)

EV = -$127.12

Thus, apparently it IS a better strategy to just flush $100 down the toilet each time lol.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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May 26th, 2015 at 1:40:39 PM permalink
Quote: mainframe

Hi all.

Hi from 1

I will try too
Quote: mainframe

I was wondering if someone can help me calculate the combined house edge and expected value for that combination of bets.

my opinion from Excel
is
ev = -$100
avg bet = 1400
so
he = -7.14%


even a fast simulation shows this too


some will make a case that the actual house edge per the $1900 at risk each roll = -100/1900 abouts 5.26%
but that is a different type of house edge not of normal house edge calculations

but some live and die by it
member Ahigh comes to mind, i do not know why
he is a good camper, in my opinion of course
Quote: mainframe

If there is an easy pre-built spreadsheet program or formula to compute the above, please let me know.

pre-built
sounds funny

it is easy to work it out with basic math

a few have
and not all agree that the ev = -$100

try out your solution and let us all know what you got
no one will hit you
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
DeMango
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
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May 26th, 2015 at 2:40:32 PM permalink
I cringe thinking of the inferior payouts on these bets. Hop the sevens. Buy the 5 (vig on win). Get a table where 12 pays 3X.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
mainframe
mainframe
Joined: Feb 19, 2015
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May 26th, 2015 at 2:40:44 PM permalink
Thank you everyone for replying so quickly with such well thought out mathematics.
I am not sure why some people calculate the EV for the above mentioned betting strategy as $-100 and others calculated it $-127.
I guess because it is a combination of one-roll prop bets and multi-roll bets like place 5 and hardway 6,8?

In any case, everyone seems to agree that EV for this combination of bets is not very good?

Assuming Sally's "combined" HE calculation of 7.14%, this betting strategy is slightly worse than an outside bet on an american double-zero roulette wheel?
What's the best case win per roll with the amounts bet? It seems to me if a field number is rolled, the guy makes either $1000 or $2000, but loses his any seven prop bet of $200, so his winnings are either $800 or $1800.

His best-case winnings are inferior to a straight up field bet of $1,000 and the combined HE is worse than the standard HE of 5.56 on an ordinary field bet?

So why did my afformentioned high roller do what he did at all? Does the casino rate his play at a higher number for doing that combination of bets? I guess if the combined HE is better, his "rating" would be better?
ECoaster
ECoaster
Joined: Apr 21, 2014
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May 26th, 2015 at 4:24:47 PM permalink
Quote: mainframe

So why did my afformentioned high roller do what he did at all?



Perhaps it's the same reason why I constantly see people (for example) sitting at a carnival game like 3CP playing blind and betting every single hand? They often have no idea that it makes any difference.
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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May 26th, 2015 at 6:33:52 PM permalink
Quote: mainframe

I am not sure why some people calculate the EV for the above mentioned betting strategy as $-100
and others calculated it $-127.

well, we better find out why 2 values have been shown
MAYbe they are both right

this is very important and goes along with the concept of adding apples and oranges together
when we should be adding apples to apples
and you get the rest

Quote: mainframe

I guess because it is a combination of one-roll prop bets and multi-roll bets

you are a fast learner
A

http://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/2/
does not warn one using the data there against mixing
an acid with a base

i suggest, please,
you try using the per roll values for the bets made and see what you come up with

I be going to dinner and dancing so you have lots of time to finish
Quote: mainframe

like place 5 and hardway 6,8?

oh oh
they both are not resolved on one roll, they could be but not 100% of the time like the
7
or
Field bet

Quote: mainframe

In any case, everyone seems to agree that EV for this combination of bets is not very good?

i do not come to that conclusiuon

Quote: mainframe

So why did my afformentioned high roller do what he did at all?

could be he was (is) a shill
just a guess on me part
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
richbailey86
richbailey86
Joined: May 8, 2014
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May 27th, 2015 at 3:50:24 PM permalink
theres a guy at my local casino

see him sometimes

bets a place bet on the 5 as well and bets almost everything else

i didnt want to snoop too hard but he increased his balance from 200 to 500

looked like he does it often

this was the night i hit a 12 on the field with a $100 bet that paid triple
An idea whose time has come cannot be stopped by any army or any government. Ron Paul

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