guitarmandp
guitarmandp
Joined: Mar 17, 2014
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April 11th, 2015 at 6:31:44 AM permalink
Was on a 4 point fire with the 5th point marked. I had $5 on the fire which pays $1,250 if it hits the 5th point. I get $125 if it doesn't hit.

What would you lay if any thing? The point was 8. I laid it for $300 and they 7'd out so I got paid $250 + my $5 fire paid $125.

I should have bet both the dont and the passline at the same time, as my casino has 100x odds, so I wouldn't have had to pay the vig.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
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April 11th, 2015 at 8:42:10 AM permalink
I probably would have went for the "max bailout", which is a lay of 600 (plus 30 commission).

If the point is made, you get 1250 - 630 = 620.

If it is missed, you get 125 + 500 = 625.

Then again, I wouldn't have made the fire bet in the first place - I'm a "pass and odds" player.
Doc
Doc 
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April 11th, 2015 at 9:38:28 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

If it is missed, you get 125 + 500 = 625.


Should this be adjusted by -30, since you had to pay the vig up front in order to win the 500?
guitarmandp
guitarmandp
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April 11th, 2015 at 9:49:10 AM permalink
I'm wishing I did that! Even though the fire is the worst bet, I was on a 6 pointer recently and got paid $5,000 (minus taxes) and what got me in the habit of betting it is that two days in a row I was on tables where there was a 6 point fire!
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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April 11th, 2015 at 10:16:47 AM permalink
Quote: Doc

Should this be adjusted by -30, since you had to pay the vig up front in order to win the 500?


You do pay the 5% up front - that's why you lose 630 (600 plus 5%) if the point was made. Isn't that the way it works?
What do you mean, "No, it isn't, as the commission would be a push if you won - the casino pockets the 30, then the bet is treated normally, so it's (600 + 30) to win (500 - 30)?"

In that case, if you lay 600, you get 1250 - 630 = 620 if you make the point, and 125 + 470 = 595 if you miss.
guitarmandp
guitarmandp
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April 11th, 2015 at 11:22:55 AM permalink
Since we have 100x odds I should have bet both the pass and the don't to save me from having to pay the vig
waltomeal
waltomeal
Joined: May 26, 2010
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April 11th, 2015 at 11:56:54 AM permalink
I would go with $0.
Old enough to repaint. Young enough to sell.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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April 11th, 2015 at 1:56:29 PM permalink
Quote: guitarmandp

Since we have 100x odds I should have bet both the pass and the don't to save me from having to pay the vig


Maybe, but you don't know what the point is (then again, what numbers were left in the Fire Bet?), and you run that 1/36 chance of a 12 costing you whatever it is that you bet on Pass but not getting anything on DP.
guitarmandp
guitarmandp
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April 11th, 2015 at 2:05:01 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Maybe, but you don't know what the point is (then again, what numbers were left in the Fire Bet?), and you run that 1/36 chance of a 12 costing you whatever it is that you bet on Pass but not getting anything on DP.



That don't guy, if I ever get in that situation again, what would you lay on the 5th point if it were 5 and 9 or 4 and 10?
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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April 11th, 2015 at 2:32:47 PM permalink
Quote: guitarmandp

That don't guy, if I ever get in that situation again, what would you lay on the 5th point if it were 5 and 9 or 4 and 10?


"That Don't Guy?" I'm a pass & odds man, not a darksider.

Anyway, assuming lay odds are 2-3 for the 5 and 1-2 for the 4 (after 5% commission):

5/9 (bet 63 (60+3) to get 37 (40-3))
Win: 1250 - 63N
Lose: 125 + 37N
1125 = 100N -> N = 11.25 -> bet 708.75 to win 416.25
Bet 693 (660 + 33) to win 407 (440 - 33)
Point Hit: 1250 - 693 = 557
Seven Out: 125 + 407 = 532

4/10 (bet 21 (20+1) to win 9 (10-1))
Win: 1250 - 21N
Lose: 125 + 9N
1125 = 30N -> N = 37.5 -> bet 787.5 to win 337.5
Bet 777 (740 + 37) to win 333 (370 - 37)
Point Hit: 1250 - 777 = 473
Seven Out: 125 + 333 = 458

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