Switching from the dark side to the good side.

Does anybody ever do this. I got massacred last night for my first $500 buy in on the donts. Every shooter was making 2 points and going out but they were rolling a ton of numbers. In fact I counted out of 8 times that 4 and 10 was the point, I was on the donts and only won 1 bet out of 8! Hardware were also hitting like crazy, I don't play the hardways but I'm just giving you an example of how hot the tables were.

Anyways since the table was "hot" and I got crushed on the donts I was tempted to buy in for another $500 and play numbers. I bet $81 or $78 across and had a $15 pass line bet with either 1x or 2x odds. The result? I got crushed again! The table all of the sudden went south. The guy who looked like a young Tom Cruise that previously had an excellent roll, hit one number and then went out. The guy next to him that looked just like David Letterman that had shot 3 points and tons of numbers last roll, rolled about two numbers and then went out. The next 4 or 5 shooters didn't do much better and I lost my next $500 faster than my first.

Am I the only guy that switches if he's getting crushed on the dont's? Maybe I'm better off just betting the donts regardless of whether the table is "hot" or "cold".

Also there's a former dealer that got fired from the casino I go to but he now plays all the time. He told me once something interesting "I don't care which side the dice are on, I just want it to stay consistent"

Quote: guitarmandp

Am I the only guy that switches if he's getting crushed on the dont's? Maybe I'm better off just betting the donts regardless of whether the table is "hot" or "cold".

After switching sides a couple of times and having similar experiences, I would suggest trying the the defensive strategy of losing a set number of times (in a row or in a small series or for a certain player) and stepping back or away from the table. Go for a cup of, a bite or even an ice-cream concoction. Then, if you're determined, saunter back and check out the table. Some of them can actually stay really warm for a longish time, although the pass bettors here will no doubt question that.

Quote: SanchoPanza

Some of them can actually stay really warm for a longish time, although the pass bettors here will no doubt question that.

I think this perception problem has to do with how either side bets. Let's look at a hand that may not be very long but hits two points.

A don't bettor probably has a DP bet along with odds and TYPICALLY a DP line bettor puts up more odds than the pass line bettor (just what I notice). So losing two points on a $10 table costs a DP bettor $80 (I'm using $30 odds for the sake of argument) before he finally wins a bet on that shooter and he's still down $50 on that hand.

Looking at a pass line bettor for the same scenario, he probably has the same $10 line bet and $10 odds along with $34 inside (assuming the point is an inside number) and presses his first two place bet hits. He collects his two pass line wins for plus $44 and picks up one win on his inside action after presses for another $21 plus the change left from his presses but loses the third pass line and odds for -$20 and of course let's his inside action of $34 die out there for losses of $54. The pass line bettor might have only made $15 on what was actually a good hand (made two points and three box numbers).

In the eyes of the Don't player the table is pretty warm/hot and in the eyes of the Pass line player it's nothing to brag about. Perception, is reality.

What I've learned over the years is that no matter if you are a do or don't player, you must not be afraid to jump on a streak. You won't make money with flat bets do/don't. Odds come into play as well, start with single odds, then go upwards if you are streaking. The biggest (in my experience) mistake is not taking advantage of a streak, hot or cold.

If you want to make money at craps, learn how to slide the dice.

I don't switch on and off in the same session. When you're cooked, you're cooked. Switching causes you to be burnt to a crisp. Same thing has happened to me enough times that I will be consistent in my approach.

Quote: Asswhoopermcdaddy

I don't switch on and off in the same session. When you're cooked, you're cooked. Switching causes you to be burnt to a crisp. Same thing has happened to me enough times that I will be consistent in my approach.

Good! More evidence too!

Quote: odiousgambit

spare yourself if you hate superstition

Although I admit it is pure superstition to hold such a belief, I do not deviate from it: I just figure the dice hate side-switchers with a passion. The evidence is all of these stories like this, plus my own experience. Sure, the evidence can be explained away. But where are the stories that show it works? [don't throw them at me now LOL] I am sticking to my vow not to switch sides during a session; as far as I'm concerned, it has served me well.

haha. Read my report on my NCL cruise last March. I had had a great roll earlier in the day on that table, and, IIRC, had created $376 in tips for the crew. Back that night with the same crew, and I could do nothing right. Table was cold cold cold. Finally I was the only one left, shooting from the Don't, and started making money. The crew was rooting for me to get back to even, and when I got there, they 'strongly' suggested it was time for me to leave. ;-) So that is one time switching worked, and it was posted before tonight. lol

I have also had a couple of sessions, primarily at Hollywood in PA saved when I would LAY a 4 or 10, and parlay the winnings a few times to get back to even, and then walk. I don't really consider that to be switching sides though. That is more about making one bet where I am just rooting for a 7 all the time. Not quite the same as Don't play.

But I agree. Most of the time I get killed when I waffle back and forth

The last time I played, I was getting crushed on the don'ts. I switched, made a good chunk of change.
The next time I play, it probably won't work that way.
It is what it is.

Don't, I said! LOL

I was playing craps at Belterra in Vevay, Indiana. I started playing the dark side and lost 3 in a row before making a don't. The next guy rolling was an older gentleman next to me who looked very happy and healthy. I said to him "what the heck I'm rolling with you. Started playing pass/odds/come/odds. He, I and the two guys after me went on a tremendous heater. It's easy to love craps when the off and on train gets going on the come bets 8o)

Quote: NokTang

What I've learned over the years is that no matter if you are a do or don't player, you must not be afraid to jump on a streak. You won't make money with flat bets do/don't. Odds come into play as well, start with single odds, then go upwards if you are streaking. The biggest (in my experience) mistake is not taking advantage of a streak, hot or cold.

Bumping this thread. I got crushed on the don'ts last night. I was tempted multiple times to switch. To me a streak is one side winning 6 times in a row. The way the table worked was 2 or 3 consecutive shooters would make a point, and then the next shooter would go out, followed by 2 or 3 conseuctive shooters making a point, followed by the next shooter going out. There was no streak IMO, just there were more shooters making their point than not making their point. It should be noted that I'm only paying attention to the first point as I wait for a new shooter if the current shooter makes a point. For me to switch I would have probably used the same strategy of betting on a shooter and then if/when he makes his point you wait for the next shooter.

Quote: guitarmandp

Bumping this thread. I got crushed on the don'ts last night. I was tempted multiple times to switch. To me a streak is one side winning 6 times in a row. The way the table worked was 2 or 3 consecutive shooters would make a point, and then the next shooter would go out, followed by 2 or 3 conseuctive shooters making a point, followed by the next shooter going out. There was no streak IMO, just there were more shooters making their point than not making their point. It should be noted that I'm only paying attention to the first point as I wait for a new shooter if the current shooter makes a point. For me to switch I would have probably used the same strategy of betting on a shooter and then if/when he makes his point you wait for the next shooter.

guitarmandp,

I always play the don'ts and refuse to switch whether its hot or not. If it's too hot, I'll step away from the table or just watch for a while and drop a lay bet here and there. I've been on a table before where I was doing well and the right bettors were taking a basting and some of them would switch up and bet the darkside. Suddenly it warmed up and they were still losing. My opinion, it's just better to hold fast and stick to one side.

Today I won $400. Not a big win by any stretch but a win. I bought in for $1,500 and I was doing awesome at the beginning and then suddenly I couldnt win a bet on the donts and I was down $900 until I switched uo my strategy, what I did was I bet the passline with 15x odds on the people that had been shooting well and I bet the donts on the guys who were shooting terrible and it got me back to the point where I won. There was this one guy that was shooting from the donts and killed me when I bet the donts with him. I bet against him on the passline and I won all 6 times he shot. There was this one old guy that would 7 out immediately every time he shot so I continued to bet against him. Bottom line is that thus strategy worked for today.

Earlier this week I had two sessions where I got destroyed on the donts and it just stayed bad for the donts all night and never got better. So I'm starting to bet the pass more if I'm getting destroyed on the donts.

Cool deal, always good to hear someone come out positive. I would have just stepped away from the table if my bankroll was being ground down while "wrong" betting. It takes a lot of patience to hang in there and grind it out on the don'ts. (Sometimes some liquid courage as well) I'm glad it worked out for you switching sides.

Every so often, the dice will chop so badly that BOTH sides take a beating. No joke! The "right" players don't repeat often enough to realize a profit, but often enough that the Don't bettors get picked off as well...you wouldn't think such a thing would be mathematically possible, but I see it occur every so often...