Easier to reach win goal with Pass than Dont Pass? WHY?
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win goal = ~$2000 (approx. double your $)
Strategy:
- Single Pass or Don't Pass bet with max odds, risking ~$100 total each time. (so you have a 20x bankroll.)
Pass: Flat = $20, odds = $80 ($100 total)
Don't pass: Flat = $15, odds = $90 ($105 total)
- Use 40% of winnings to press after each win
- Go back to risking ~$100 total if you lose.
For simplicity sake, the avg point is a 5/9.
with a 40% press, you need to win 5 Passlines in a row to win $1900.
You need to win 9 Don't Passes in a row to win $2200.
From this thread (https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/math/21313-probability-of-winning-5-passline-bets-or-9-dont-pass-bets/), probability of that happening is:
5 Passlines in a row: 2.81531E-10
9 Don't Passes in a row: 2.53832E-16
But both Pass and Don't Pass have a ~1.4% House Edge.
it's harder to hit the Passline but you're compensated by being paid more.
it's easier to win Don't Pass but you get paid less.
So why isnt the probability of doubling up the same?
Quote: 100xOdds
But both Pass and Don't Pass have a ~1.4% House Edge.
it's harder to hit the Passline but you're compensated by being paid more.
it's easier to win Don't Pass but you get paid less.
So why isnt the probability of doubling up the same?
Why should it be? The more bets you need to win, the less likely you are to achieve it.
Suppose there was a bet that paid even money if the next roll was an odd number (which has probability 1/2 of occurring).
The house edge is zero.
You start with $100 and have a win goal of $100.
If you bet the whole $100, the probability of reaching the win goal is 1/2.
If you bet $50 and then another $50 if you win, it is 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/4.
If you bet $10 at a time, it is (1/2)10 = 1/1024.
The probabilities of eventually doubling up before blowing the bankroll are going to be close (I think the pass bets are going to be more likely, as you are going to end up needing fewer bets one way or the other, and the more bets you make, the more the house edge chips away at your bankroll).
Making a win goal is both easier and harder playing with the shooter than against him.
It is much easier if you have a fairly decent roll because with place bets or a come
bet you can get paid often and repeat. I always start with a 1 unit 4 & 10 and the add
$1 or $2 on the first hit to make it $15 or $30, Another hit and you have made a good
deal of money as compared to your bet size.
With the dont's it is always a grind. You play the don't pass you are fighting the 11 and 7 and have to
wait to a decision. ON the don't come it is the same, and with a limited bank roll you cant
have very many bets working or one 7 will cut deep. I never play don't come with odds, no
way I am playing where I can lose more than I can win...
With the donts, no one can have a really long bad roll to make you money, but someone can have a
long good roll.I have had bad nights were a don't player makes money off me 4-5 rolls in a row....but
I have had rolls where don't guys got stubborn and lost thousands.
dicesetter
okQuote: 100xOdds3/4/5x odds, $2000 bankroll
win goal = ~$2000 (approx. double your $)
no noQuote: 100xOddsStrategy:
- Single Pass or Don't Pass bet with max odds, risking ~$100 total each time. (so you have a 20x bankroll.)
Pass: Flat = $20, odds = $80 ($100 total)<SNIP>
you assume too much
1st the pass line, a 1 unit bet with 345X odds has an average bet of 3 7/9 units
so with flat bet $25 = avg bet of $94 4/9
2nd
the dpass average bet with 345x odds = 5 units
so right here a $25 flat bet = $125 avg bet
different from the pass with $94 4/9 avg bet
the rest of your maths gave me a headache
please start over for each statement you made
as in me opinion you estimate everything
1+1=2 is not an estimation for the sake of estimating
they basically areQuote: 100xOddsSo why isnt the probability of doubling up the same?
and very close using the same unit bankroll
start with same bets
$2000 stake
$25 bets and always 345x odds (no increase after a win or a loss)
this will set a benchmark
sim data shows to double an 80 unit stake
for pass line
Win goal was met . . . = 46.918% of the time ( 469182)
for dpass
Win goal was met . . . = 47.106% of the time ( 471058)
for $100 pass with no odds = 36.2230940% at 389.68963 avg bets
for $100 dpass = 36.3298587%
for $125 dpass = 38.9631702%
=================================
now you want to increase SOMETING (but what exactly so my grandma understands, hehe)
after a win by 40%
oh, my head still hurts
Mully
50%Quote: ThatDonGuySuppose there was a bet that paid even money if the next roll was an odd number (which has probability 1/2 of occurring).
The house edge is zero.
You start with $100 and have a win goal of $100.
If you bet the whole $100, the probability of reaching the win goal is 1/2.
huh? now you are trying to double a 2 unit bankrollQuote: ThatDonGuyIf you bet $50 and then another $50 if you win, it is 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/4.
you only showed one path to success
why?
because 100x odds thinks the only way to double a bankroll is to win X times in a row?
his posts are even more difficult to understand after reading them than mine, in me opinion
??Quote: ThatDonGuyIf you bet $10 at a time, it is (1/2)10 = 1/1024.
for your 0% bet that prob as you know will always be 50% success and 50% ruinQuote: ThatDonGuyThe probabilities of eventually doubling up before blowing the bankroll <snip>
only the average number of trials changes
bank units * win units
(L*W)
1*1
2*2
10*10
yous understanding 100x odds parameters for his betting system?
what think ye of "Use 40% of winnings to press after each win"?
press the line bet?
Sally
yes, i agreeQuote: dicesitterYou play the don't pass you are fighting the 11 and 7 and have to wait to a decision.
and i add
it is so much more fun to Lay against the established point
after
asking the shooter if
HE is going to 7out real fast before hitting HIS point
the Lay always wins on any 7
sometimes I Lay every number on the come out roll
after watching the shooter method of settin the dice to roll a 7 and
if his shoe colors match, I add in a 3 way 7
that way, on a 7 winner I win 7 bets and lose only 2 for a nice win I take to the bank
but i win way more money Laying the point
a lifetime winner to be exact
i am lucky
Sally
I am not going to comment on your lifetime win thing, but I would much rather lay the
point than play the don't pass. But I would also rather make a larger don't COME bet
without odds than lay the point. I understand I am fighting the 11 & 7, but when I win I get
paid back all I have placed at risk.
In addition, most rolls last longer than 2 rolls, so I have a reasonable chance of getting
that bet up on the second roll.
But then again I admit I have very limited experience on don't betting. I go to the table
and bet on myself, and I look for opportunities to bet on others.
dicesetter
a lot
but i willQuote: dicesitterMUSTANGSALLY
I am not going to comment on your lifetime win thing,
just my Lay 4 and Lay 10 bets
winning at 75.5% rate
not 66.7%
i feel it is because i know when the shooter is
not going to hit that point number
better than the average guy...
i think i have a talent there
me too (2)Quote: dicesitterbut I would much rather lay the point than play the don't pass.
so you want to only win at a 49.3% rate instead of my 75.5% rate?Quote: dicesitterBut I would also rather make a larger don't pass bet
without odds than lay the point. I understand I am fighting the 11 & 7,
but when I win I get
paid back all I have placed at risk.
well, if that makes you happy!
thank you for sharing
Sally
Quote: mustangsally
huh? now you are trying to double a 2 unit bankroll
you only showed one path to success
why?
Because I read the original post as asking why the probability of reaching the goal by getting 5 passes in a row was not the same as reaching the goal by getting 9 don't passes in a row, and then demonstrating why those particular numbers would be different.
sorry I guess I was not to clear there ( old age)
I would rather place a larger don't come bet on the second roll, not don't pass.
First if you win I am happy... anyone that beats a casino deserves to beat it. But
if I am going to lay the 4 & 10 I am laying twice what I am winning, so I have to win
2 times to every loss.. That does not make any sense to me.
Ok I just played 6 hands, now out front I have to admit two items, first the sets I use
are designed for outside numbers, and in this exercise I changed sets on the 4th hand
because the first set was not working
here are the rolls
12, 10,4,7
9,7
10,7
5/10/4/8/5/7/
5/11/10/4/9/11/9/7
8/5/4/6/3/5/4/4/3/6/10/4/9/7
Now I had 12 4 & 10 outs of 36 rolls.
How can you make money on this and also, do you replace a lay on the 4 or 10 if it is hit during the
roll.
Again I am not being critical, if there is a way to make money different than what I do I am all ears...
dicesetter
Quote: 100xOdds3/4/5x odds, $2000 bankroll
win goal = ~$2000 (approx. double your $)
Strategy:
- Single Pass or Don't Pass bet with max odds, risking ~$100 total each time. (so you have a 20x bankroll.)
Pass: Flat = $20, odds = $80 ($100 total)
Don't pass: Flat = $15, odds = $90 ($105 total)
- Use 40% of winnings to press after each win
- Go back to risking ~$100 total if you lose.
For simplicity sake, the avg point is a 5/9.
For $20 pass, 3, 4, 5x, average bet is $75.56, ev per bet -$.2828.
For $15 DP, 3, 4, 5x, average bet is $76.71, ev per bet -$.2104.
So, you are starting out with a disadvantage on the pass, because you are subjecting 33% more to the HA.
wellQuote: goatcabinFor $20 pass, 3, 4, 5x, average bet is $75.56, ev per bet -$.2828.
20 * 1/3
80 * 1/6
100 * 2/9
120 * 5/18
add up = 75 5/9
ev = -7/495 * 20 = -140/495
checks out
what is this about again?
oh, yes
estimates to double a bankroll
by pressing something 40% after a winnnnnnnnnnnn
huh?Quote: goatcabinFor $15 DP, 3, 4, 5x, average bet is $76.71, <snip>
how you get $76.71?
15 * 1/3 = 15/3 = 5
105 * 2/3 = 210/3 = 70
5 + 70 = 75
Hmmm, did not get it that way
15 dpass with 4x odds = 75 avg bet
not that way either
ev = -3/220 * 15 = -45/220
okok
Sally
Quote: mustangsallywell
by pressing something 40% after a winnnnnnnnnnnn
huh?
how you get $76.71?
15 * 1/3 = 15/3 = 5
105 * 2/3 = 210/3 = 70
5 + 70 = 75
Hmmm, did not get it that way
15 dpass with 4x odds = 75 avg bet
not that way either
Since I don't count the push in the bet handle, the weighted average is pushed toward the $35 amount.
Try:
( (605 X 15) + (1320 * 105) ) / 1320 = 76.71
That damn push is always confusing things, ain't it?
okQuote: goatcabinSince I don't count the push in the bet handle, the weighted average is pushed toward the $35 amount.
Try:
( (605 X 15) + (1320 * 105) ) / 1320 = 76.71
That damn push is always confusing things, ain't it?
/ 1925 gets there
not counting a push as an event that happened
could be easier for some or more difficult for others
I do
count them as an event
as 100 pass line decisions produces how many don't pass decisions? (2 players at same table, one on pass the other on dpass)
and the expected loss for each would B...
Mully
Quote: mustangsallyok
/ 1925 gets there
Oops! OF course.
Quote: mustangsallynot counting a push as an event that happened
could be easier for some or more difficult for others
I do
count them as an event
as 100 pass line decisions produces how many don't pass decisions? (2 players at same table, one on pass the other on dpass)
and the expected loss for each would B...
Mully
For 1980 decisions, ev's are -27 units DP, -28 units pass. Divide by 1980, you get 1.36%, divide by 1925 1.40%. Who cares? ev's are important.
i think some will careQuote: goatcabinFor 1980 decisions, ev's are -27 units DP, -28 units pass.
Divide by 1980, you get 1.36%, divide by 1925 1.40%. Who cares? ev's are important.
Alan Mendelson (he is on TV and has a nice speaking voice)
Frank Scoblete
Paul Rodgers
just to name a few off the top of me head
now
here in question form for you
#1) 100 pass line decisions produces how many don't pass decisions?
(2 players at same table, one on pass the other on dpass)
#2) the expected loss for each would B...? (same $15 flat bets)
thanks
for some reason I spell two as too
i know
Mully
Quote: mustangsallyi think some will care
Alan Mendelson (he is on TV and has a nice speaking voice)
Alan is an idiot.
Quote: mustangsally
now
here in question form for you
#1) 100 pass line decisions produces how many don't pass decisions?
Depends on how many 12s, since I don't consider the push a decision.
Quote: mustangsally
#2) the expected loss for each would B...? (same $15 flat bets)
$21.04 for DP, $21.21 for pass.
Quote: mustangsallyfor some reason I spell two as too
You have company, but most of the others do not know the difference between "two", "too" and "to".
Quote: goatcabinAlan is an idiot.
Personal insult; 3 days.
okay, the parameters for my questions were 2 players (Sally and Adam)Quote: goatcabinDepends on how many 12s, since I don't consider the push a decision.
$21.04 for DP,
$21.21 for pass.
standing and playing at the same craps table
we know the pass line player (call her Sally) sees 100 win/lose decisions in 100 pass line decisions
so we both agree on the ev being a loss of
(7/495)*15*100 = 21.21
here is how i do the dpass because he (I call him Adam) played at the same table wit Sally
and saw the same 100 pass decisions
but still only bet the dpass
then they both cashed out and went to dinner, i was told, after the pass line 100th decision
(3/220)*15*100 = 20.45
i count the pushes
you did this
(27/1925)*15*100 = 21.039
but Adam did not see 100 win/lose dpass decisions
how many did he see?
well, there must be an average to work with
that is what i be after
is it
100 * (35/36) = 97 2/9
Mully
the truth will be shown, by those in power of course
i do not care one way or the other what is 18 or not
but that
should make for great entertainment worth the price of admission, i say
i have lots of skittles and tea saved up
Alan may not like Alan
maybe they dated the same girl at one time
i doubt they played or will ever play at the same craps table
but stranger things have happened
Mully
Quote: mustangsally
Alan may not like Alan
maybe they dated the same girl at one time
i doubt they played or will ever play at the same craps table
It goes way back to heated discussions they had on a now defunct craps board.
Quote: MrVIt goes way back to heated discussions they had on a now defunct craps board.
Ahigh got rid of his craps website?
you mean 1 AlanQuote: wilbsmittWow, forgot all about rec.gambling.craps. That was quite a place with a lot of memorable characters: Some I see on this site. The 2 Alans,
the other is just Alan
what is in a name?
i bet they both would have selected a different first name given the chance
and they are both over 60
the new 80
Sally
I saw 14 passes last week but that's the exception. If I am at a table for hours I might see one or two shooters make 3 points but 5 points is rare. Often when I see 5 points it's one of those short rolls where they make the points really quick and unless you had decent odds, it wasn't a great roll.
Furthermore it seems like 80% of the time the table doesn't lean in one direction, it just goes back and forth, and neither side is really winning.
