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goatcabin
goatcabin
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March 9th, 2015 at 11:12:01 AM permalink
Quote: FatGeezus

Quote: indignant99

It's not called "free money." It's called a "free bet."............ That means it's not burdened with any kind of fee, to make the bet,........ nor upon winning the bet. The Free Odds bet suffers no commission, and suffers no unfair payoff upon win. It's an Even-Steven wager.



The fee you pay to make the 'free odds bet' is the money you put on the Pass/Come/Don't Pass/Don't Come line.



Yeah, but you've already paid that fee; there's no additional "fee" for making the odds bet, just more variance and risk/reward.
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
FatGeezus
FatGeezus
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March 10th, 2015 at 9:16:23 AM permalink
Quote: goatcabin

Quote: FatGeezus

Quote: indignant99

It's not called "free money." It's called a "free bet."............ That means it's not burdened with any kind of fee, to make the bet,........ nor upon winning the bet. The Free Odds bet suffers no commission, and suffers no unfair payoff upon win. It's an Even-Steven wager.



The fee you pay to make the 'free odds bet' is the money you put on the Pass/Come/Don't Pass/Don't Come line.



Yeah, but you've already paid that fee; there's no additional "fee" for making the odds bet, just more variance and risk/reward.



That's what I said. You paid the fee with a line bet.

You said "you've already paid that fee"

Indignant99 said "it's not burdened with any kind of fee" He didn't say "it's not burdened with any additional fee."

You can't make an odds bet without paying the fee!
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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March 10th, 2015 at 9:32:29 AM permalink
Quote: indignant99

Indeed. A man after my own heart. A hair-splitter.
So... does that mean that the phrase "free bet" is dead wrong?



I don't think it is wrong. There is a price in the form of a HE on any PL/DP bet. That price is a constant; if you're going to play the game at all, you're almost always going to place one or the other. Odds behind the line are optional, and available to the limit of either your bankroll or the table odds. But you don't HAVE to bet even 1x odds, though it's the best bet on the table now that you've paid the entry fee, as it pays true odds on your bet, or "free odds" without any additional vig. The bets are almost unrelated, except that the amount of your PL/DP bet determines the max amount you can place in free odds.

How many people can walk into a Horseshoe and play max (100x) odds for more than a couple hands? Not many that I know of.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
mustangsally
mustangsally
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March 10th, 2015 at 9:35:11 AM permalink
while you guys argue who's johnson is really bigger...
Quote: FatGeezus

You can't make an odds bet without paying the fee!

sure one can
i do that all the time
when out playing craps with friends

most me friends only bet $5 pass line and always take $10 odds even on a 345x table
(yes I agree, fools they are!)

I tell them they are trying to jinx the table by not taking max odds
i especially like adding to their bet (odds only)
(this happens at other casino games too)
when point = 4 or 10

bet $5 and they return to me $15 on a win

I tell them to thank me
because i caused the point to be won
by maxing out the odds

I am so lucky
sweet!
Sally
(Mully)
I Heart Vi Hart
mustangsally
mustangsally
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March 10th, 2015 at 9:46:38 AM permalink
Quote: goatcabin

Yeah, but you've already paid that fee; there's no additional "fee" for making the odds bet, just more variance and risk/reward.

risk/reward
i see you placed that at the end of the sentence
any reason why?

is it less important being there

kind of like
Alan, I love you
or
I love you, Alan

or just more risk
more reward

how about this example...
thoughts...

Sally buys in for $20 (yep)

Sally wants to make max 20 bets and stop playing
should Sally take any odds, say $5 pass line with $10 odds

is Sally's risk of ruin
way higher or lower
than just making 20 flat bets of $5 on the pass line?


my husband gets mad at me when I lose all my starting bankroll
but i still love him

now,
one can sim this

i calculated it and also used (as a check)
the SHORT TERM RISK OF RUIN FORMULA (From D. Schlesinger's BLACKJACK ATTACK, p 162)
that gets real close too

Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
mustangsally
mustangsally
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March 10th, 2015 at 9:52:01 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

I don't think <snip>

me too
Quote: beachbumbabs

<snip>Odds behind the line are optional, and available to the limit of either your bankroll or the table odds. But you don't HAVE to bet even 1x odds,
<snip>
though it's the best bet on the table <snip>

i agree odds bet are optional

you said But one time

but is not the best bet on the table
(you left out why in your opinion that is)
but that IS your opinion

we must be consistent
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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March 10th, 2015 at 9:54:53 AM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

me too
i agree odds bet are optional

you said But one time

but is not the best bet on the table
(you left out why in your opinion that is)
but that IS your opinion

we must be consistent
Sally



You have the +EV method you hint at, Sally, but I don't know/understand what it is, so for me, odds bets are the best at the table.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
mustangsally
mustangsally
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March 10th, 2015 at 10:20:12 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

<snip> so for me, odds bets are the best at the table.

ok
i think you explained it, maybe

ev? (expected value) of 0 is the best for you?

what about buying a don't bet a player does not want on a 6 or 8 dcome?
is that also in the best column?
this may not be your cup of tea i do (due) understand

just trying to get a feel on how others think and feel about playing casino games

for me it is a higher winning probability (session that is)
yes, my many +EV craps plays have exactly that
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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March 10th, 2015 at 10:26:34 AM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

ok
i think you explained it, maybe

ev? (expected value) of 0 is the best for you?

what about buying a don't bet a player does not want on a 6 or 8 dcome?
is that also in the best column?
this may not be your cup of tea i do (due) understand

just trying to get a feel on how others think and feel about playing casino games

for me it is a higher winning probability (session that is)
yes, my many +EV craps plays have exactly that
Sally



I don't have the experience or ovaries to ask someone else to let me pick up their odds bet. Yet, anyway. I'm implying that they're being stupid in not playing their own options.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
goatcabin
goatcabin
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March 10th, 2015 at 11:40:47 AM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

risk/reward
i see you placed that at the end of the sentence
any reason why?


Because the issue being discussed was the fee, so it goes first.


Quote: mustangsally

risk/rewardhow about this example...
thoughts...

Sally buys in for $20 (yep)

Sally wants to make max 20 bets and stop playing
should Sally take any odds, say $5 pass line with $10 odds

is Sally's risk of ruin
way higher or lower
than just making 20 flat bets of $5 on the pass line?



I ran 100,000 sessions with $20 bankroll, 20-bet limit, no win goal.
For $5 pass:
bust rate: 40.7%
20-bet rate: 59.3%, average outcome +11.70, SD $16.60
overall net -$1.19, SD $20.15
38,376 winning sessions
9240 breakeven sessions
52,384 losing sessions

For $5 pass, double odds:
bust rate: 75.9%
20-bet rate: 24.1%, avg. outcome +$58.53, SD $46.25
overall net -$0.61, SD $40.39
22,012 winning sessions
92 breakeven sessions
77,896 losing sessions

The average bet when taking double odds is $11.67, so $20 bankroll makes Sally very vulnerable.
In the old rec.gambling.craps days, Mason used to use the term "commensurate risk", and compared different schemes using commensurate risk.
These options do not have commensurate risk. You can't really take odds and still have an average bet of $5, so instead I adjusted the bankroll.
If we divide $11.67 by $5, we get 2.334, so I tried the double-odds with a bankroll of $45 instead.

bust rate: 48.9%
20-bet rate: 51.1%, avg. outcome +$39.49, SD $48.65
overall net: -$1.33, SD $54.32
39,295 winning sessions
213 breakeven sessions
60,492 losing sessions

This addresses the "risk" part of risk/reward, but not the "reward" part, which is the other aspect of the variance odds bets provide.

For a 20-bet session, is there some amount of winnings that would satisfy you?
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"

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