Odds bet
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My question is, are you not risking funds when you place an odds bet with the pass or don't pass bet? If there is a risk, how do you lose the odds bet? If you lose the pass/don't pass bet, do you also lose the odds bet?
are you saying you are a craps virgin?Quote: blriegerI'm new to the game, and I'm a little confused on the odds bet.
so cool!
oh ohQuote: blriegerI've read everywhere how it's the safest bet to make.
what you mean by "the safest"?
you mean risk of losing the odds betQuote: blriegerMy question is, are you not risking funds when you place an odds bet with the pass or don't pass bet?
yes
if something else
tell me in different words
i think you know the answer to thisQuote: blriegerIf there is a risk, how do you lose the odds bet? If you lose the pass/don't pass bet, do you also lose the odds bet?
clue: when the best lost
so i agree with you
Sally
Quote: blriegerMy question was, if you lose the odds bet when you lose the pass /don't pass line bet, then why is it called free money and hyped as the best bet you can make?
Because the odds you get when you win match the probability of winning.
For example, if the point is 4 or 10, and you bet $10 Odds, the chance of you winning is 1/3, and you get 2-1 odds, so 1/3 of the time, you gain $20, and 2/3 of the time, you lose $10. Every 3 times the point is 4 or 10, you "are expected to" win $20 once, and lose $10 twice, so overall you break even.
Similarly, if the point is 5 or 9, the chance of you winning is 2/5, but it pays 3-2; 2/5 of the time, you gain $15, and 3/5 of the time, you lose $10. Every 5 times the point is 5 or 9, you "are expected to" win $15 twice, and lose $10 three times, so overall you break even.
Finally, if the point is 6 or 8, the chance of you winning is 5/11, but it pays 6-5; 5/11 of the time, you gain $12, and 6/11 of the time, you lose $10. Every 11 times the point is 6 or 8, you "are expected to" win $12 five times, and lose $10 six times, so overall you break even.
"What's in it for the casino?" Well, in order to be able to make an odds bet, you need to make a Pass or Come (or Don't Pass or Don't Come, but the odds work backwards) bet, and those have an advantage for the casino.
Quote: blriegerThanks for breaking that down. I appreciate it. Now it makes sense.
For an even plainer version of an answer... Odds bets carry no house edge. You could lose a few odds bets, or win a few, but in the long run they should even out. Every other bet on the table has a house edge, except your odds bets because they are paid in correct proportion to your chance of winning. Remember, odds are "even" house edge bets on both the Pass/Come and the Don't Pass/Don't Come.
Quote: blriegerI'm new to the game, and I'm a little confused on the odds bet. I've read everywhere how it's the safest bet to make.
I doubt you read that they are the "safest" bets. You probably read that they have the lowest house edge (none). They increase the difference between winning and losing, risking more to (potentially) win more. So, I would not use the word "safe" to describe them.
Quote: blriegerwhy is it called free money and hyped as the best bet you can make?
It's not called "free money." It's called a "free bet." That means it's not burdened with any kind of fee, to make the bet, nor upon winning the bet. The Free Odds bet suffers no commission, and suffers no unfair payoff upon win. It's an Even-Steven wager.
Quote: indignant99It's not called "free money." It's called a "free bet."............ That means it's not burdened with any kind of fee, to make the bet,........ nor upon winning the bet. The Free Odds bet suffers no commission, and suffers no unfair payoff upon win. It's an Even-Steven wager.
The fee you pay to make the 'free odds bet' is the money you put on the Pass/Come/Don't Pass/Don't Come line.
So... does that mean that the phrase "free bet" is dead wrong?
Quote: FatGeezusQuote: indignant99It's not called "free money." It's called a "free bet."............ That means it's not burdened with any kind of fee, to make the bet,........ nor upon winning the bet. The Free Odds bet suffers no commission, and suffers no unfair payoff upon win. It's an Even-Steven wager.
The fee you pay to make the 'free odds bet' is the money you put on the Pass/Come/Don't Pass/Don't Come line.
Yeah, but you've already paid that fee; there's no additional "fee" for making the odds bet, just more variance and risk/reward.
Quote: goatcabinQuote: FatGeezusQuote: indignant99It's not called "free money." It's called a "free bet."............ That means it's not burdened with any kind of fee, to make the bet,........ nor upon winning the bet. The Free Odds bet suffers no commission, and suffers no unfair payoff upon win. It's an Even-Steven wager.
The fee you pay to make the 'free odds bet' is the money you put on the Pass/Come/Don't Pass/Don't Come line.
Yeah, but you've already paid that fee; there's no additional "fee" for making the odds bet, just more variance and risk/reward.
That's what I said. You paid the fee with a line bet.
You said "you've already paid that fee"
Indignant99 said "it's not burdened with any kind of fee" He didn't say "it's not burdened with any additional fee."
You can't make an odds bet without paying the fee!
Quote: indignant99Indeed. A man after my own heart. A hair-splitter.
So... does that mean that the phrase "free bet" is dead wrong?
I don't think it is wrong. There is a price in the form of a HE on any PL/DP bet. That price is a constant; if you're going to play the game at all, you're almost always going to place one or the other. Odds behind the line are optional, and available to the limit of either your bankroll or the table odds. But you don't HAVE to bet even 1x odds, though it's the best bet on the table now that you've paid the entry fee, as it pays true odds on your bet, or "free odds" without any additional vig. The bets are almost unrelated, except that the amount of your PL/DP bet determines the max amount you can place in free odds.
How many people can walk into a Horseshoe and play max (100x) odds for more than a couple hands? Not many that I know of.
sure one canQuote: FatGeezusYou can't make an odds bet without paying the fee!
i do that all the time
when out playing craps with friends
most me friends only bet $5 pass line and always take $10 odds even on a 345x table
(yes I agree, fools they are!)
I tell them they are trying to jinx the table by not taking max odds
i especially like adding to their bet (odds only)
(this happens at other casino games too)
when point = 4 or 10
bet $5 and they return to me $15 on a win
I tell them to thank me
because i caused the point to be won
by maxing out the odds
I am so lucky
sweet!
Sally
(Mully)
risk/rewardQuote: goatcabinYeah, but you've already paid that fee; there's no additional "fee" for making the odds bet, just more variance and risk/reward.
i see you placed that at the end of the sentence
any reason why?
is it less important being there
kind of like
Alan, I love you
or
I love you, Alan
or just more risk
more reward
how about this example...
thoughts...
Sally buys in for $20 (yep)
Sally wants to make max 20 bets and stop playing
should Sally take any odds, say $5 pass line with $10 odds
is Sally's risk of ruin
way higher or lower
than just making 20 flat bets of $5 on the pass line?
my husband gets mad at me when I lose all my starting bankroll
but i still love him
now,
one can sim this
i calculated it and also used (as a check)
the SHORT TERM RISK OF RUIN FORMULA (From D. Schlesinger's BLACKJACK ATTACK, p 162)
that gets real close too
Sally
me tooQuote: beachbumbabsI don't think <snip>
i agree odds bet are optionalQuote: beachbumbabs<snip>Odds behind the line are optional, and available to the limit of either your bankroll or the table odds. But you don't HAVE to bet even 1x odds,
<snip>
though it's the best bet on the table <snip>
you said But one time
but is not the best bet on the table
(you left out why in your opinion that is)
but that IS your opinion
we must be consistent
Sally
Quote: mustangsallyme too
i agree odds bet are optional
you said But one time
but is not the best bet on the table
(you left out why in your opinion that is)
but that IS your opinion
we must be consistent
Sally
You have the +EV method you hint at, Sally, but I don't know/understand what it is, so for me, odds bets are the best at the table.
okQuote: beachbumbabs<snip> so for me, odds bets are the best at the table.
i think you explained it, maybe
ev? (expected value) of 0 is the best for you?
what about buying a don't bet a player does not want on a 6 or 8 dcome?
is that also in the best column?
this may not be your cup of tea i do (due) understand
just trying to get a feel on how others think and feel about playing casino games
for me it is a higher winning probability (session that is)
yes, my many +EV craps plays have exactly that
Sally
Quote: mustangsallyok
i think you explained it, maybe
ev? (expected value) of 0 is the best for you?
what about buying a don't bet a player does not want on a 6 or 8 dcome?
is that also in the best column?
this may not be your cup of tea i do (due) understand
just trying to get a feel on how others think and feel about playing casino games
for me it is a higher winning probability (session that is)
yes, my many +EV craps plays have exactly that
Sally
I don't have the experience or ovaries to ask someone else to let me pick up their odds bet. Yet, anyway. I'm implying that they're being stupid in not playing their own options.
Quote: mustangsallyrisk/reward
i see you placed that at the end of the sentence
any reason why?
Because the issue being discussed was the fee, so it goes first.
Quote: mustangsallyrisk/rewardhow about this example...
thoughts...
Sally buys in for $20 (yep)
Sally wants to make max 20 bets and stop playing
should Sally take any odds, say $5 pass line with $10 odds
is Sally's risk of ruin
way higher or lower
than just making 20 flat bets of $5 on the pass line?
I ran 100,000 sessions with $20 bankroll, 20-bet limit, no win goal.
For $5 pass:
bust rate: 40.7%
20-bet rate: 59.3%, average outcome +11.70, SD $16.60
overall net -$1.19, SD $20.15
38,376 winning sessions
9240 breakeven sessions
52,384 losing sessions
For $5 pass, double odds:
bust rate: 75.9%
20-bet rate: 24.1%, avg. outcome +$58.53, SD $46.25
overall net -$0.61, SD $40.39
22,012 winning sessions
92 breakeven sessions
77,896 losing sessions
The average bet when taking double odds is $11.67, so $20 bankroll makes Sally very vulnerable.
In the old rec.gambling.craps days, Mason used to use the term "commensurate risk", and compared different schemes using commensurate risk.
These options do not have commensurate risk. You can't really take odds and still have an average bet of $5, so instead I adjusted the bankroll.
If we divide $11.67 by $5, we get 2.334, so I tried the double-odds with a bankroll of $45 instead.
bust rate: 48.9%
20-bet rate: 51.1%, avg. outcome +$39.49, SD $48.65
overall net: -$1.33, SD $54.32
39,295 winning sessions
213 breakeven sessions
60,492 losing sessions
This addresses the "risk" part of risk/reward, but not the "reward" part, which is the other aspect of the variance odds bets provide.
For a 20-bet session, is there some amount of winnings that would satisfy you?
Quote: mustangsallywhile you guys argue who's johnson is really bigger...
sure one can
i do that all the time
when out playing craps with friends
most me friends only bet $5 pass line and always take $10 odds even on a 345x table
(yes I agree, fools they are!)
I tell them they are trying to jinx the table by not taking max odds
i especially like adding to their bet (odds only)
(this happens at other casino games too)
when point = 4 or 10
bet $5 and they return to me $15 on a win
I tell them to thank me
because i caused the point to be won
by maxing out the odds
I am so lucky
sweet!
Sally
(Mully)
And if you friend didn't make the Pass line bet (the fee) could you have added your free bet?
Of course not.
He paid the fee for both of you.
Quote: FatGeezusAnd if you friend didn't make the Pass line bet (the fee) could you have added your free bet?
Of course not.
He paid the fee for both of you.
What point are you trying to make here? All the bets at the crap table (except the odds bets) carry a "fee", a built-in house advantage. The line bets have the lowest fee, except a buy bet under certain conditions.
If you make a line bet, you've paid the fee. The fee is the same whether you take/lay odds or not. Since the odds bets are paid "correctly", they have no associated fee. Many people say that taking odds reduces the house advantage, i.e. reduces the fee. I think this is misleading, because the expected loss does not change at all. The choice between taking/laying odds or not should not have anything to do with the fee, because it's there either way. Odds add variance without any additional expected loss, which is why they're referred to as "free odds"; I would call them "free variance", since the additional variance costs no extra.
Quote: FatGeezusAnd if you friend didn't make the Pass line bet (the fee) could you have added your free bet?
Of course not.
He paid the fee for both of you.
Setting aside the "fee" issue for a moment, let's discuss the effect(s) of odds bets.
The advantage of odds bets is that you get additional variance without additional expected loss.
Betting $5 on the pass line has very low variance, good for surviving at the table on a limited bankroll, but bad for your chances of winning, say, half your bankroll.
You can get more variance by betting $15 instead of $5, but you increase your expected loss and risk of ruin.
You can get more variance without additional expected loss by taking odds on your $5 bet.
If you bet $15, your expected loss is $.2121, or $12.72 for 60 bets, a couple of hours' play, standard deviation $116.18.
If you bet $5 and take double odds, your expected loss for the 60 bets is $4.24, SD $110.67.
So, you cut your "fee" by 67% and get almost as much variance. You actually are reducing the house's expected take, by betting less on the flat and more on the odds.
Each player has to decide whether he/she wants more variance, of course. It cuts both ways, but variance is what gives us a chance to win. In most cases, the casino charges a lot for high variance, for example the prop bets.
Quote: goatcabinQuote: FatGeezusAnd if you friend didn't make the Pass line bet (the fee) could you have added your free bet?
Of course not.
He paid the fee for both of you.
What point are you trying to make here? All the bets at the crap table (except the odds bets) carry a "fee", a built-in house advantage. The line bets have the lowest fee, except a buy bet under certain conditions.
If you make a line bet, you've paid the fee. The fee is the same whether you take/lay odds or not.
Since the odds bets are paid "correctly", they have no associated fee.
Many people say that taking odds reduces the house advantage, i.e. reduces the fee. I think this is misleading, because the expected loss does not change at all. The choice between taking/laying odds or not should not have anything to do with the fee, because it's there either way. Odds add variance without any additional expected loss, which is why they're referred to as "free odds"; I would call them "free variance", since the additional variance costs no extra.
The point that I am trying to make here is that the odds bet is not free. You do have to pay a fee to make the odds bet. It's called the line bet.
You even stated that once you make a line bet you have paid the fee. You now have the option to make an odds bet. I agree that you don't have to make a additional fee to make an odds bet.
IMO to say that the odds bet is free is wrong. You have to pay the fee (line bet) in order to make an odds bet.
I never said that you have to pay an additional fee to make an odds bet.
you must enjoy running simulationsQuote: goatcabin<snip> <snip>
For a 20-bet session, is there some amount of winnings that would satisfy you?
sometimes i do too
oh yes, with a $20 buy-in my win goal would be $300+ (it is ok to go past one time and I consider ruin with less than $5 in the rail {4,3,2,1,0}, but the 20 bet session max is set in stone, for now)
then i stop for dinner
you finish your data, and have fun with it, and i will show my calculated data from Excel
we can compare
remember i did ask a question
Sally
Quote: mustangsallyyou must enjoy running simulations
sometimes i do too
oh yes, with a $20 buy-in my win goal would be $300+ (it is ok to go past one time and I consider ruin with less than $5 in the rail {4,3,2,1,0}, but the 20 bet session max is set in stone, for now)
then i stop for dinner
Of course, with a flat $5 bet you'd have to win every bet to win $100, so the $300 win goal has no effect on that sim. I tried it with double odds, and TWICE in 100,000 sessions the bettor won $318. If you try more odds, you can't even make one bet with full odds on $20.
In order to win $300 in 20 bets from $20, you could just bet the whole $20 on the passline and parlay, having about a 6% chance of winning the first four and walking away with $320.
Quote: mustangsallyremember i did ask a question
Sally
Oh, yes. Well according to my sim, Sally's risk of ruin is way higher doing $5 + 10 than flat $5.
and that was with a bankroll of $20Quote: goatcabinOh, yes. Well according to my sim, Sally's risk of ruin is way higher doing $5 + 10 than flat $5.
so the odds bet made ruin more probable with my small $20 buy-in and $5 pass line bets
ruin
($20 bankroll, $5 pass line bets, 20 max bets, dinner after)
no odds: 0.405200406 <<< nice
2x odds: 0.759706261 <<< i willing to bet $5 that all thought this would be 99% or higher!
2x odds $45 bankroll: 0.487104965 <<< higher bankroll lower complete ruin
==============================
now, say I have $1000 bankroll, and I do too
risk of ruin for both betting systems = 0
if we change the $5 flat to $10 flat for 20 bets
ruin = 0
now
risk/reward
this could be done without a sim using ev and sd too
my data photos coming after my head feels better
Sally
pass 0 odds 20 bets max
bank = units ($20 bank $5 bets = 4 units)
dpass 0 odds 20 bets max
bank = units ($20 bank $5 bets = 4 units)
pass 2x odds 20 bets
bank = $ (20 = $20)
higher bankrolls
was this with your program or use wincraps?Quote: goatcabinI ran 100,000 sessions with $20 bankroll, 20-bet limit, no win goal.
For $5 pass:
bust rate: 40.7%
20-bet rate: 59.3%, average outcome +11.70, SD $16.60
overall net -$1.19, SD $20.15
38,376 winning sessions
9240 breakeven sessions
52,384 losing sessions
looks to me
like your session results are way off for some reason unknown at this time
I calculated
this in Excel and another program (because it is easy for me)
and i get these values (that are real close to my sim data too)
all calculated vales
For $5 pass:
bust prob: 0.405200406
20-bet prob: 0.594799594, average outcome 11.71332803, SD 15.8213885
overall net -1.136925377, SD 19.78088367
avg # of bets = 16.0793732
0.367297717 prob winning session
0.138954449 prob break-even session
0.506252166 prob even or winning
0.493747834 prob losing session
the other results will follow later
are you a California boy?
Sally
