Online Craps - Obviously stay away from all!
Quote: dcdaddyI have played in some sites (play money only) and probabilities associated with the rolls are waayy out on the outlier edge of that bell curve....but over and over again. Irrespective of the side of the game selected to play (right/wrong), the algorithm simply adjusts. I've tested over and over and always the same outcome...a consistently adjusting algorithm.
What is your evidence, other than adjectives?
Quote: dcdaddy... why on earth would anyone put any real money into an online version of the game?
For that matter, why would anyone put money into a craps simulator slot machine?
I'm not talking about the six/eight person 'bubble' craps systems, but actual video slot machines that simulate craps. Not too many casinos have them, but they're out there, and they do get played...
More importantly though, I used inductive reasoning, which I based on my own experience as well as the information gleaned from many of the posts in this forum. More specifically, it has been stated repeatedly in this forum that, given the way the game of craps has been constructed, there really is no way to get past the house edge. The Pass and Don't Pass bets, with odds, get one close...but at no point give the player any sort of advantage, especially in the long run. Given this frequently-stated narrative, my question is simply this - why would one take these already unfavorable odds (however slight, i.e. 1.4% house edge) and subject themselves to an online version of the game, which, as mentioned, gives a programmer the ability to create an algorithm that can easily read a player's betting strategy and adjust to it to ensure the "house", or in this case the "site", remains profitable under all circumstances? If my logic is flawed or my argument is without merit absent the "evidence", by all means let me know. My background is in the markets so my experience is that, if someone else has better information, they will typically utilize it to their advantage or benefit. Maybe the online gambling community is more benevolent. I guess I just have my doubts.
I got a letter in the Mail years that I still had $80 in my netteller account and netteller was going to mail me a check in 6 months. I never saw a dime of that money.
Quote: DJTeddyBearFor that matter, why would anyone put money into a craps simulator slot machine?
Free drinks, low minimums. Just like the goofy little Roulette machine at Four Queens.
Quote: Mission146Free drinks, low minimums. Just like the goofy little Roulette machine at Four Queens.
Or they enjoy the game and it's the only one in town, like in NY at Yonkers. http://www.yonkersraceway.com/craps/
Quote: Mission146Free drinks, low minimums. Just like the goofy little Roulette machine at Four Queens.
Yup. I enjoy vbj even though its even money on blackjacks because it gives me something to do when I'm at the bar instead of VP which has higher variance.
You didn't follow up properly. I had many thousands tied up in Neteller (as did many in the 100s of thousands) Everybody I know got paid. Neteller is still around but it's no servicing the USA for gambling . If you didn't receive your money, you can present your evidence, probably not worth $80.Quote: guitarmandpI used to play online craps back When gambling was legal In the US. Anyways I had a $6 6 and a $6 8. They roll an 8 and instead of paying me $7 it takes away my $6 bet and gives it to the house. I sent an email and they "reversed" it by refunding my $6 but they wouldn't pay me the $7 I should have won. I never played online craps again.
I got a letter in the Mail years that I still had $80 in my netteller account and netteller was going to mail me a check in 6 months. I never saw a dime of that money.
Gaffed or not, craps is -EV so why would you want to play it anyways?Quote: dcdaddyI am assuming all craps-playing members of the this forum stay away from online craps altogether...irrespective of the site right? I mean, given the multiple threads I have read discussing the massive difficulties inherent in finding any strategies that provide the player a way to put a dent in the house edge, why on earth would anyone put any real money into an online version of the game? In addition to the house-favored probabilities inherent in a live game, you are simply handing your money over to a programmer (or programmers) whose job is to ensure the site is profitable by way of writing and subsequently adjusting a simple algorithm. What a gig!! And pleeeeaaase do not tell me about "bad" sites vs. "good" sites. I have played in some sites (play money only) and probabilities associated with the rolls are waayy out on the outlier edge of that bell curve....but over and over again. Irrespective of the side of the game selected to play (right/wrong), the algorithm simply adjusts. I've tested over and over and always the same outcome...a consistently adjusting algorithm. Stick with the live games ladies and gents. At least you stand a chance!
Right. i will never again send a dime to an online site. My biggest gripe on the one site i did make the mistake of sending money to (2cent, 4cent hold 'em) had a cash out policy that was outright thievery: $100 minimum, which wasn't so bad, but they had a cash out "fee" of $100...i suppose for some whales --they did have a $100-$200 game-- this was easily inundated, but for the penny player it is totally untenable...Furthermore go to ANY online site and try to find their cash out policy and you cannot find it without great effort...indeed you might have to email them to even get a link to the cash out page...Quote: dcdaddyI am assuming all craps-playing members of the this forum stay away from online craps altogether...irrespective of the site right? I mean, given the multiple threads I have read discussing the massive difficulties inherent in finding any strategies that provide the player a way to put a dent in the house edge, why on earth would anyone put any real money into an online version of the game? In addition to the house-favored probabilities inherent in a live game, you are simply handing your money over to a programmer (or programmers) whose job is to ensure the site is profitable by way of writing and subsequently adjusting a simple algorithm. What a gig!! And pleeeeaaase do not tell me about "bad" sites vs. "good" sites. I have played in some sites (play money only) and probabilities associated with the rolls are waayy out on the outlier edge of that bell curve....but over and over again. Irrespective of the side of the game selected to play (right/wrong), the algorithm simply adjusts. I've tested over and over and always the same outcome...a consistently adjusting algorithm. Stick with the live games ladies and gents. At least you stand a chance!
one thing that did surprise me in your post was your "play money" experience...my own limited experience there was the log was set so that i most always won...they really do play you for a sucker, which you are if you send them any money...tom p
So I'll chime in with the rhetorical "Why play Craps heads-up, its a R/W multi-player game?"
Quote: dcdaddyIf, by your question, you mean where are the roll-by-roll statistics that I can present here, I did not complete that level of analysis. Actually, didn't really feel it that necessary as I have an inherent understanding of stats and probabilities, and the outcomes were pretty obvious.
More importantly though, I used inductive reasoning, which I based on my own experience as well as the information gleaned from many of the posts in this forum. More specifically, it has been stated repeatedly in this forum that, given the way the game of craps has been constructed, there really is no way to get past the house edge. The Pass and Don't Pass bets, with odds, get one close...but at no point give the player any sort of advantage, especially in the long run. Given this frequently-stated narrative, my question is simply this - why would one take these already unfavorable odds (however slight, i.e. 1.4% house edge) and subject themselves to an online version of the game, which, as mentioned, gives a programmer the ability to create an algorithm that can easily read a player's betting strategy and adjust to it to ensure the "house", or in this case the "site", remains profitable under all circumstances? If my logic is flawed or my argument is without merit absent the "evidence", by all means let me know. My background is in the markets so my experience is that, if someone else has better information, they will typically utilize it to their advantage or benefit. Maybe the online gambling community is more benevolent. I guess I just have my doubts.
Oh my! That really made me laugh.
You have an "inherent" understanding of stats and probabilities. Okay. I hope I don't get punished if I call you a "mutant" (I mean it as a compliment). I sure wish I had such an inherent understanding, but then, most people consider me pretty slow. I had to learn it the hard way, starting with Blaise Pascal.
The flaw in your "logic" (your argument -- you should not use them as synonyms!) seems rather simple. I will point it out with a long-winded story.
I met Meyer Lansky on two occasions, and no, I don't expect anyone here to believe me (nor do I care if they do). But you can look up the following if it comforts you. The hardest problem that Lansky had: convincing the Mafia guys who ran the casinos that they should run the games "fairly" (according to the stated rules) and not cheat. Convincing them that they didn't *have* to cheat.
They just couldn't believe that they could make money doing that. They thought they had to cheat.
You know, I suppose they also thought they had an inherent grasp of probability and statistics, although I have no doubt they had a somewhat less erudite manner of expressing themselves than you.
As we all know, and especially as someone who claims to have an inherent grasp of these things should know, an on-line casino doesn't have to cheat. Especially for a game like craps.
Now, I don't like them for other reasons (I like playing craps for social reasons). But, if I ran an on-line casino I sure as hell wouldn't bother cheating anyone. Why would you risk your reputation when you don't have to? Does that make any sense?
Well, believe what you wish.
So, if I understand you correctly, you are indicating I have a "flaw" in my logic based on this conversation with Meyer Lansky? Hey, I have no reason not to believe you met him on two occasions or that he said what he said. And I am glad that, as you say, if you ran an online casino, you would not resort to doing anything that would influence the outcome at all...or cheat. That speaks to your integrity. I am guessing though that you do not run an online casino nor do you play craps online. I think this is a wise choice. I should remind you that we are in the 21st century though, and the Meyer Lanskys of the world have been replaced by programmers and software developers that I can virtually guarantee are not satisfied with a measly 1.4% house edge, and have the means to tweak it to their "advantage" however they like with a few, simple keystrokes. So, while I appreciate your response and your story, I am afraid you have done little to refute my "logic".
and the truth is, no one can do what you claim to be able to do, although almost everybody can and sometime does "feel" cheated by gambling machines [or with internet gambling, I suppose, I wouldn't know]
Quote: odiousgambitno one can do what you claim to be able to do
I doubt that. I suspect there are some Silicon Valley geeks that could do it on their lunch break. But believe what you want to believe.
Quote: bodyforlifebelieve what you want to believe.
there are some 'savant' types that can amaze, but in order to get a handle on whether you are being cheated at a Craps table, you need a huge data base, usually millions of rolls. Unless, you know, the cheating was so egregious the player lost every bet.
I'm not carrying any water for online casinos btw
I really don't have much of an opinion on online gambling, other that I don't participate in it (not counting some online poker 10 years ago) for various reasons. But, it's difficult to put much stock in someone who claims the games are rigged without any evidence other than his word on an anonymous website.
However,
Quote: ConcinnityI met Meyer Lansky on two occasions, and no, I don't expect anyone here to believe me (nor do I care if they do). But you can look up the following if it comforts you. The hardest problem that Lansky had: convincing the Mafia guys who ran the casinos that they should run the games "fairly" (according to the stated rules) and not cheat. Convincing them that they didn't *have* to cheat.
Con, I'm not sure you didn't prove dcdaddy's point with this one. If you are drawing an analogy equating online casinos with the mob, your story makes it sound like the mob would have cheated if not for the counsel of Meyer Lansky. Well, I bet many online casino owners have not gotten advice (or not followed it, if they did) from the likes of Lansky. Therefore, it is logical to assume that if they had the idea to run gaffed games in the first place, they would still be doing it, just as the mob would have done without Lansky.
Quote: odiousgambitit is an established fact that some online casinos have cheated.
So if this is true, why call the OP a blowhard? The fact of the matter is, it's happened. So to totally dismiss someone's claim doesn't seem to make sense. You also backed off your original statement that it couldn't be done (which I thought was ridiculous and rather naive when you made it).
Quote: bodyforlifeSo if this is true, why call the OP a blowhard? The fact of the matter is, it's happened. So to totally dismiss someone's claim doesn't seem to make sense.
I'm taking a jab at his way of presenting his case, his argument, not a jab at him. Perhaps the moderators will agree with you and deem that I need a suspension. I'm OK with that.
Quote:You also backed off your original statement that it couldn't be done (which I thought was ridiculous and rather naive when you made it).
I didn't back off. I still say this determination can't be made by mere "inherent understanding of stats and probabilities", see below. I didn't say online casinos never cheat.
Let's assume he is not normally a blowhard but just a person who is so angry at online casinos he used a blowhard argument. Perhaps you too wouldn't normally fail to see through what he wrote except that you despise online casinos as well. Bear in mind I am deeply suspicious of online casinos and do not gamble on them; I like to see the dishonest ones get exposed too.
I call them like I see them though,
Quote:you are simply handing your money over to a programmer (or programmers) whose job is to ensure the site is profitable by way of writing and subsequently adjusting a simple algorithm.
this is clearly not something to claim without proof; this goes beyond a suspicion of cheating into a fantasy about how it happens
Quote:I have played in some sites (play money only) and probabilities associated with the rolls are waayy out on the outlier edge of that bell curve....but over and over again. Irrespective of the side of the game selected to play (right/wrong), the algorithm simply adjusts. I've tested over and over and always the same outcome...a consistently adjusting algorithm.
the algorithm that keeps adjusting is that rightside bettors lose about 50.5% of the time, and when you play darkside to beat it, the rules say a roll of 12 [or 2] on the come-out is a push, making you lose about 50.5% of the time too. What I am saying is this frustration of trying to switch sides to win is a very real experience for us all at an actual table, no team of programmers needed.
Quote:... where are the roll-by-roll statistics that I can present here, I did not complete that level of analysis. Actually, didn't really feel it that necessary as I have an inherent understanding of stats and probabilities ...
my BS meter shoots all the way over on those kinds of statements. Yours doesn't?
Quote:More importantly though, I used inductive reasoning, which I based on my own experience as well as the information gleaned from many of the posts in this forum.
I think a guy's reasoning could make him suspicious of online gambling, without getting into fantasies about it
Quote:Maybe the online gambling community is more benevolent. I guess I just have my doubts.
Benevolent is the wrong quality to be looking for in gambling. And I think if the OP just wants to say he has his doubts and leave it at that, that's about where many of us are.
1. To my detractors - I realize that I did not provide any statistical "proof" or data when making my initial assertions, which makes what I said initially more of a theory than anything. My guess though is that, if I had provided some sort of data, it would likely have been dismissed anyway as too narrow a sample size or some other shortcoming. Also, I believe (and correct me if I am wrong), no one came forth and indicated they actually had a "positive" (i.e. profitable) experience playing online craps. In fact, of those members that did come forth, they described a "negative"(i.e. not profitable) experience. Those that disagreed with me, either mildly or vehemently, did all indicate that in fact they did not play craps online for "other reasons". Again, this is purely anecdotal I know - but just an observation.
2. My last point is simply this - as bodyforlife so aptly pointed out, "I figure if companies and governments can be taken down by hackers, a program like that couldn't be that difficult to write. I'm not a techie, but imagine if his comment was thrown at some of the Mensa candidates in Silicone Valley, it wouldn't be that hard for them to figure it out." You hit the nail on the head. Professionally, I bridge the gap between the financial markets and technology. If I can leave you with one last point, it is this: these hackers are simply highly-skilled programmers who have been stealing identities and money for years. Their most recent "coup de grace" is the theft of close to or over $1 billion from multiple banks around the world. Historically, financial institutions have had some of the tightest security measures or any type of company. So, given that combination of technological savvy and greed out there, and willingness to use it, how easy do you think it would be for someone in that field to write a little piece of code to add a bit more to the house (site) edge in an online craps game? My guess is even Mr. Lansky may have been ok with that. :) Thanks for the discussion.
Quote: JoemanNot to speak for Concinnity, but I understood his 'mutant' comment to be like X-Men type mutants. And who wouldn't want to be Wolverine? :)
Thank you for understanding! I feel very happy that at least one person got it. I really, truly, did not mean the term "mutant" as a bad thing and tried to point that out (plus, I love the musical group Devo, which also uses the term affectionately). For clarity: I most definitely meant the other stuff I wrote as a bad thing. :)
If someone could do what the claimant said then I would consider him a mutant. Superhuman, in that sense. Because I don't think that even a superior, talented, trained, and educated human can do that by himself even under optimal conditions.
I know an awful lot of geeks by the way. Including mathematicians. But I don't know anyone at all that would ever claim what the claimant says (even if they could do it, which they can't). So I remain extremely skeptical.
But as someone pointed out, a soi disant "idiot savant" could (in theory) do that given enough resources and time. No doubt some of these poor souls exist. But, as someone else pointed out, one of them would also have to spend a hell of a lot of time gathering data for analytics which kinds of self-defeats the "intuitive" part of the claim (even if they also had an eidetic memory). Worse, they'd have to collect so much data that, well, I think it would have to exceed the attention span (and lifetime) of a human being. Just sayin'.
And I have seen some things. I have colleagues who study on-line gambling/gaming, and I know some people (not personally, but I have excellent documentation that I won't reveal) literally sit in a dark room with lots of monitors on at the same time, connected to on-line casinos, watching them, doing their thing, and so forth (mostly this concerns on-line poker). But I don't think even one of *those* losers (well, in the sense of not having a life; they probably make money at on-line poker) would claim to have an intuitive grasp of such things.
Just my opinion though.
Quote: JoemanI really don't have much of an opinion on online gambling, other that I don't participate in it (not counting some online poker 10 years ago) for various reasons. But, it's difficult to put much stock in someone who claims the games are rigged without any evidence other than his word on an anonymous website.
However,
Con, I'm not sure you didn't prove dcdaddy's point with this one. If you are drawing an analogy equating online casinos with the mob, your story makes it sound like the mob would have cheated if not for the counsel of Meyer Lansky. Well, I bet many online casino owners have not gotten advice (or not followed it, if they did) from the likes of Lansky. Therefore, it is logical to assume that if they had the idea to run gaffed games in the first place, they would still be doing it, just as the mob would have done without Lansky.
A good point. I blame myself for using analogical reasoning (always suspect; I just thought it would save time). I have no excuse; just lazy. I owe you a drink for pointing out my laziness to me (sorry).
I only used the Lansky story as an analogy. It proves nothing other than: the smart money doesn't believe in cheating for various reasons (particularly due to reputation, and reputation has become an enormous factor in e-commerce as you all know).
Look at it another way. Even in Lansky's time, when digital computers barely existed and Al Gore hadn't even claimed himself the son of a poor black sharecropper who grew up to invent the Internet, the smart people realized that reputation in the business mattered. Especially in a highly competitive environment (it matters very little in a monopoly: as a reference to that I hope you will all like, I give you a famous statement that you have all heard about rigged games and why they can flourish without competition: "It's the only game in town" -- well, our on-line "town" has plenty of competition now!).
Given how reputation-based business works on the Internet (the short list: viciously, quickly, unfairly, and ultra-competitively), I simply can't imagine that any place that wants to last longer than 2 or 3 days (I mean that quite literally!) would bother cheating at something like craps. Or anything else. If they did: extremely stupid given all they have to invest, and they would not last long enough to matter. Just one thing to consider: their competition would expose them. Not using "intuitive" methods, but really good, verifiable ones that don't require mutant superhumans.
Okay, so maybe I have it all wrong. Maybe the claimant does have an "intuitive" grasp of these things, and has a time-machine (or an army of fellow mutants) so can gather enough data to do proper analytics (intuitively!), and so forth. Well, okay then. I guess in such a case evil geniuses have decided to cheat people at on-line craps and have somehow devoted so much time and energy to developing clever algorithms to do this that it takes a mutant genius with a superhuman intuitive grasp of such things to discover it (as opposed to a competitor running a chi-squared test, or whatever they do; I dunno). I suppose they could have devoted all of their evil genius energy to other things, such as world-domination (I still want to see a piranha pond) but then: I've never understood the thought processes of evil geniuses all that well. We should alert MI5/CIA/DHS and B'nai Brith, and get James Bond on the case, because, clearly, these evil monsters do it for some other ulterior motive than to simply cheat on-line craps players (probably they do it to get all the people they cheat to distract attention from their real plan involving a fleet of drones, a supertanker full of Astroglide, a highly trained pack of horny 5-foot long green iguanas in season, and 256 on-line porn sites, with everything cleverly timed to converge on Washington at the next State of the Union address while Congress browses porn on their phones rather than listen to Obama talk and talk and talk -- but I digress (if anyone wants me to write the screenplay, please let me know)).
Quote: dcdaddyHi Concnnity. I had to give some thought to how to respond. First - I am glad my questions/comments gave you a laugh. Honestly, yours gave me a chuckle too. Typically, when someone has to resort to name-calling, I have found that whatever follows typically has little substance. By the way, I have been called many things in my life, but not "mutant". I kinda like it. In fact, I looked it up. Here is a definition: "A mutant is an organism or a new genetic character arising or resulting from an instance of mutation, which is a base-pair sequence change within the DNA of a gene or chromosome of an organism. The natural occurrence of genetic mutations is integral to the process of evolution." And I certainly think of myself as an "evolved" individual. So again, thank you.
So, if I understand you correctly, you are indicating I have a "flaw" in my logic based on this conversation with Meyer Lansky? Hey, I have no reason not to believe you met him on two occasions or that he said what he said. And I am glad that, as you say, if you ran an online casino, you would not resort to doing anything that would influence the outcome at all...or cheat. That speaks to your integrity. I am guessing though that you do not run an online casino nor do you play craps online. I think this is a wise choice. I should remind you that we are in the 21st century though, and the Meyer Lanskys of the world have been replaced by programmers and software developers that I can virtually guarantee are not satisfied with a measly 1.4% house edge, and have the means to tweak it to their "advantage" however they like with a few, simple keystrokes. So, while I appreciate your response and your story, I am afraid you have done little to refute my "logic".
Uh....
You missed his point(s) completely.
I tend to agree with you - good business practices will win in the end.
However, who are these people running these business and do they have good business sense?
I don't trust online casinos. I think people have no clue about how to run a good business - that is why most of them fail.
Here is the thing. Transparency reveals all. IF these casinos are honest in their number generation - they should publish the data. What is the distribution? That should be readily available to all. If you are not hiding anything, you should absolutely publish this - and publish the probabilities that this distribution would happen.
Every craps game I play (on my phone) has this. I can look and see how many 7's have come up in my session (and overall), and what the expected number should be. It is easy and simple.
It is clear that online casinos - if they are honest - still have to contend with this belief that they cheat. Why not face this problem HEAD ON and reveal the distribution?
