bodyforlife
bodyforlife
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February 10th, 2015 at 3:05:50 AM permalink
Quote: allinriverking

Does it bother anyone but me, when people slow the game down to make a lay bet, when there is only one number needed to roll, for the make em all bet to win? I mean stop the hot roll, really....



Aside from the ribbing you're getting riverking, can you clarify your original statement? Are you referring to the "all or nothing" bet that pays 176/1?
spr1000
spr1000
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February 10th, 2015 at 3:41:35 AM permalink
I don't see how "lay" bets could slow down the game. It's as simple as a place bet for an experienced dealer. On the other hand A rookie dealer might run into some confusion, I've experienced It firsthand. It's not a popular bet so maybe the dealers at your casino don't know the wager minimums and payouts. What bothers me is LATE bettors.Thats what truly slows the game down. If you want to bet late play roulette!
spr1000
spr1000
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February 10th, 2015 at 3:42:26 AM permalink
I don't see how "lay" bets could slow down the game. It's as simple as a place bet for an experienced dealer. On the other hand A rookie dealer might run into some confusion, I've experienced It firsthand. It's not a popular bet so maybe the dealers at your casino don't know the wager minimums and payouts. What bothers me is LATE bettors.Thats what truly slows the game down. If you want to bet late play roulette!
RS
RS
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February 10th, 2015 at 5:14:51 AM permalink
Quote: spr1000

I don't see how "lay" bets could slow down the game. It's as simple as a place bet for an experienced dealer. On the other hand A rookie dealer might run into some confusion, I've experienced It firsthand. It's not a popular bet so maybe the dealers at your casino don't know the wager minimums and payouts. What bothers me is LATE bettors.Thats what truly slows the game down. If you want to bet late play roulette!



Depends on the amount and if it's a normal number. Sometimes players throw down a bunch of chips and say "Lay the 6 for as much as I can". Oftentimes it's some weird amount (like a hail mary play with last of their chips) or it's people doing it to hedge a fire bet (or all tall small bet). If there are several players doing it, it can get quite confusing...especially if the boxman is an idiot and doesn't help out.

If someone throws down $100 in green and $25 in red, says "Lay the 6 for $120" [vig upfront], that's easy. If someone throws down a chunk of reds and whites, totalling $283, dealer has to figure out what amount can be bet and take the vig out from that. Even with a calculator, pen and paper, that's not going to be too easy to figure out in 10 or 15 seconds, like you'd expect a dealer to.
spr1000
spr1000
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February 10th, 2015 at 3:29:42 PM permalink
Quote: RS

Depends on the amount and if it's a normal number. Sometimes players throw down a bunch of chips and say "Lay the 6 for as much as I can". Oftentimes it's some weird amount (like a hail mary play with last of their chips) or it's people doing it to hedge a fire bet (or all tall small bet). If there are several players doing it, it can get quite confusing...especially if the boxman is an idiot and doesn't help out.

If someone throws down $100 in green and $25 in red, says "Lay the 6 for $120" [vig upfront], that's easy. If someone throws down a chunk of reds and whites, totalling $283, dealer has to figure out what amount can be bet and take the vig out from that. Even with a calculator, pen and paper, that's not going to be too easy to figure out in 10 or 15 seconds, like you'd expect a dealer to.




In Vegas I never see multiple players doing Lay bets. It's usually 1 player at the table.. The reality is, not many players do lay bets or understand the concept .Like I said,an experienced dealer can lay a bet as fast as they can place one. Regardless of the amount.Some of the bets that really slow the game down are hop,horn,hardways,and LATE bets.Regardless if your laying,placing or propping if You bet late the stick will pull the dice back till the bet is wagered. Usually their equally as frustrated and after the late bet they will say " no more bets" and pass the dice to the shooter. With that being said I've never once seen a lay bet slow down a game.
MidwestAP
MidwestAP
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February 10th, 2015 at 5:30:16 PM permalink
I occasionally play craps for recreation with friends. I know it's -EV, so I minimize the EV by only playing pass and don't pass bets and track how much I'm giving up. When the expected loss equals the cost of a movie and popcorn, I leave, if not before. Therefore, I LOVE it when players slow the game down! They are saving me money. I've never understood the need to play a negative EV game fast?

Now if the reason it's being slowed down has a secondary reason, like the shooter is a pompous jerk, then I guess it might justify leaving. I just prefer to bet the opposite side as him.
allinriverking
allinriverking
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February 10th, 2015 at 9:24:00 PM permalink
Quote: bodyforlife

Aside from the ribbing you're getting riverking, can you clarify your original statement? Are you referring to the "all or nothing" bet that pays 176/1?


Yes.
bodyforlife
bodyforlife
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February 11th, 2015 at 1:05:47 PM permalink
Quote: allinriverking

Yes.



So let me give you my take on the "all or nothing" bet. If you are fortunate enough to get all but one number AND the final number has the opportunity for a "lay" bet (so it's not 2,3,11, or 12), I would do a "lay" bet every time. I believe in hedging a bet when I am in a sure win situation. If I have $5 on it and stand to win $880, why be greedy? It's easy enough to buy some back and guarantee maybe a couple of hundred or $600 (or just split it down the middle and guarantee from $300-$400). You have to admit, that's a pretty good payout for a $5 wager. And of course, there are those that truly want to go "all or nothing". That's just not me, but maybe that works with your risk tolerance. To each his own.
Concinnity
Concinnity
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February 11th, 2015 at 6:58:57 PM permalink
Quote: bodyforlife

So let me give you my take on the "all or nothing" bet. If you are fortunate enough to get all but one number AND the final number has the opportunity for a "lay" bet (so it's not 2,3,11, or 12), I would do a "lay" bet every time. I believe in hedging a bet when I am in a sure win situation. If I have $5 on it and stand to win $880, why be greedy? It's easy enough to buy some back and guarantee maybe a couple of hundred or $600 (or just split it down the middle and guarantee from $300-$400). You have to admit, that's a pretty good payout for a $5 wager. And of course, there are those that truly want to go "all or nothing". That's just not me, but maybe that works with your risk tolerance. To each his own.



I find this fascinating from a psychological standpoint. From a math standpoint I find this boring and trivial but tedious. So I'll skip the math; someone who likes mathematical drudgery for the sake of mathematical drudgery can do that exact boring math.

Well, this appears to make a lot of sense doesn't it? You've gotten to within one number of the ATS, and with your method you will definitely win roughly half of what you'd otherwise win (and might not win). But then again, you don't risk losing all of the potential 176:1 payout. You just "pay" roughly half of your opportunity-win to the hedge.

But look at it another way.

If you play the ATS for that 176:1 payoff then you already play with a pretty bad house edge. But I presume you know that.

But in your scenario you've gotten to within one number of winning, so if you hedge your ATS bet at that point you definitely will win roughly half of what you would have won if you made that last number (the exact math doesn't matter here; you'll see why).

So, it seems like that smart thing to do at that point. Take roughly half and get a sure thing, compared to all of what you might win (or not win in which case you're out your original $5). Not greedy and all that. Smugness surely applies at this point. :)

However, consider the following. And in order to simplify things without loss of generality, presume you can hedge no matter what number you need (you can; I leave this as an exercise for the reader). Okay. Now in order to win that ATS bet, ever, under any possible circumstances, you *have* to get to a situation where you only have one number to go. By definition. Duh, right?

This means that, using your strategy, you will *always* take the hedge. Always. Okay. Kudos for your discipline.

That means, best case, you have (for the purposes of when you make those original ATS bets) changed the payout to 88:1 (roughly; actually a bit worse than that, but it doesn't really matter that much).

So instead of making a 176:1 payout bet with a bad house edge, you make, in effect, a bet roughly more than twice as bad in terms of house edge. Every single time you make the original bet.

Now, maybe you don't care. Or maybe you can't take the anxiety with one number to go. Et cetera. I don't mind in such a case so long as you realize what you've done. But you have (roughly, but on the close order) doubled the house edge on an already bad bet using this strategy. Which means, if you do it enough, you'll lose roughly twice as much than if you didn't hedge.

But again: maybe you don't care. After all, you play the ATS bet in the first place (I avoid it but a lot of people consider me a numbskull). And I have seen the ATS bet win several times (once when I shot; I had no bets on it of course, but another player had $100 on it although he played a rather worse hedging method than you propose -- I have never seen a happier craps player on a win though! Even though I saw him lose more money than he won for the roughly 3 hours total I saw him play I suspect he got more than his money's worth psychologically).


P.S. I omit the obvious logical recurrence relation in terms of payout that such a hedging strategy implies. E.g., if you get within 2 numbers then do a hedge that "guarantees" you will win either way, and then, why not do it for 3 numbers away, and then, . . . until you get to 10 numbers away (hey! wait!) -- simple stuff and pretty trivial of course. But if you do it that way, tail recursing all the way to the original bet, then you'd see you would start your hedging on your original bet (and I have seen ATS players do this!), which, I suspect, would, from a psychological standpoint, make clear that this method makes you lose faster (or not; those players I've seen kept doing it despite the evidence of their senses).
RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
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February 11th, 2015 at 7:15:20 PM permalink
Con,
First off, the HE on the ATS bet is around 7%. Not great, but still better than any of the hardways and other center table action.

Now that is with no hedge ,so the full 176:1 payout.
You are correct that taking the hedge effectively changes your payout to around 88:1, but you also now increase your number of wins , since you only need 9 numbers to win, instead of 10. So you get a lower payout, but one that happens more frequently. How that affects the HE of the bet is an exercise for others.


I like the bet.
Nothing beats stepping up to a table for the start of 4 hours of play, putting $5,$5,$5 on the A,T,S, and have it hit right out of the gate! I've had this happen a couple of times.
+$175 for the S, +$175 for the T, and +$875 for the A = +$1225 off the first shooter (Not to mention whatever was made during the roll.
On the negative side, having someone throw 3 consecutive 7 winners on the Come Out roll really bites.... -$45
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!

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