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slackyhacky
slackyhacky
Joined: Jan 18, 2012
  • Threads: 48
  • Posts: 359
January 26th, 2015 at 12:12:55 AM permalink
Quote: Concinnity

Slackyhacky, I don't want your money (I charge a lot more than that; I consult for a living). No offense and I greatly appreciate the gesture as it implies a level of sincerity that I find missing in so many things in this lamentable world.

However, I need to know something. Do you want to *know* the answers or just *believe* the answers?

I don't want to get all epistemic on your ass, but in short: wouldn't you rather *know* how to calculate the answer yourself, and therefore have complete assurance that you have the correct answer? Instead of relying on someone else to calculate (or worse: simulate) the answer and then you have to rely on their authority?

Really, you shouldn't have a problem learning how to calculate the answers. No scary math needed; just basic arithmetic. I surmise from the excellent way you formulated the problems that you savvy basic arithmetic. :) And you really did a great job formulating the problems.

Just curious and *please* don't consider me hostile! Not! Just curious as to what motivates you and what would assure you that you have an authoritative answer. And why.

And no: you shouldn't trust any answer that I might give you. You don't know me. :)



Good questions.

I agree, I could probably work towards figuring it out on my own.

However, I have always struggled with stats. I got differential equations like a champ, but stats was like a foreign language written backwards. Also, people like yourself always overestimate how easy it is to understand and calculate because of how easy it comes to you.

Finally, I have grown to respect and trust the math wiz folks on here.

Ultimately, you are correct. I would much rather know how to do it than rely on having to ask the question but it is a matter of time and priorities in life.

My motivation? I have developed a way of betting that I have simulated over thousands and thousands of rolls and keep hitting the $100k mark starting at $16k. But since no system apparently works, I'm just trying to understand the math behind my betting.
Concinnity
Concinnity
Joined: Sep 22, 2014
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 62
January 26th, 2015 at 5:59:47 PM permalink
Quote: slackyhacky

Good questions.

I agree, I could probably work towards figuring it out on my own.

However, I have always struggled with stats. I got differential equations like a champ, but stats was like a foreign language written backwards. Also, people like yourself always overestimate how easy it is to understand and calculate because of how easy it comes to you.

Finally, I have grown to respect and trust the math wiz folks on here.

Ultimately, you are correct. I would much rather know how to do it than rely on having to ask the question but it is a matter of time and priorities in life.

My motivation? I have developed a way of betting that I have simulated over thousands and thousands of rolls and keep hitting the $100k mark starting at $16k. But since no system apparently works, I'm just trying to understand the math behind my betting.



Thank you! Great answers.

Please don't trust those simulations. I can give a long list as to why, but I suspect no one here cares. Simulations have value, but they never give the complete answer.
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
  • Threads: 25
  • Posts: 2463
January 27th, 2015 at 11:03:56 AM permalink
Quote: slackyhacky

Ultimately, you are correct. I would much rather know how to do it than rely on having to ask the question but it is a matter of time and priorities in life.

sometimes all one has is time but no way to even know how to start

Quote: slackyhacky

My motivation? I have developed a way of betting that I have simulated over thousands and thousands of rolls and keep hitting the $100k mark starting at $16k. But since no system apparently works, I'm just trying to understand the math behind my betting.

I have seen your system in code from what 7craps did for you.
I even saw his other systems where Lay 9 was used instead of Lay 10 and that doubled bankrolls more often and in less rolls, as I remember as I do not have the results to view.


turning $16k into $100k is about the same as turning $100 into $625
even a Marty can do that and have fun trying
but when the success probabilities are in the high 30% and low 40%
I would rather do something that gives closer to a 50% chance to double any starting bankroll

math is fun and
learning the math is more fun, I say so
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart

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