Joined: Feb 20, 2010
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June 27th, 2014 at 12:50:16 PM permalink
I suffer badly from not knowing when to leave. I have had a few sessions where I was up 5x my buy-in, but stuck around too long and either lost it all, or at least lost a big portion of the winnings.
In my case I justify it by saying that I have to drive for 5 hours, or air travel at least 2 hours, to play craps. So a 1 hour game is not going to happen, even if I am up 5x. I want to play at least for 4 to 8 hours.

But what I am trying to do is, when I have hit the 5x win, then reset. Bank the win, and start over again with my initial buy-n amount. Play like it is all I have, and then try to find the magic again.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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June 27th, 2014 at 12:53:32 PM permalink
Quote: dicesitter


All the activities i mentioned are much more than skill, much more. It comes dome to decisions,
every guy in a tournament can fish, they can shoot, they can play poker, the decisions and
preparation is what makes the difference.

What you are suggesting in craps is that you can take a guy that has worked on his shot for years,
undertstands the game, the tables he is playing on, etc.... and then you can take a guy that is
drunk when he plays and they can play 25 sessions at the table with the same starting bank roll
and after every 25 game session they will both have the same amount of money!!!!!

I wonder if that is what you are trying to tell us.


The drunk guy will probably have more. He will probably then start believing he is some kind of a craps guru, Look out WoV.

If the drunk guy is playing the best EV bets, then he will do better then some trender.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Joined: Dec 18, 2011
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June 27th, 2014 at 1:19:26 PM permalink
Not going to get into name dropping. Let just say some of these have written books and popular one to that.

It seems like the guys who buy in for 10-15k have issues with money management. Unlike us smaller bankroll guys save to fight, scratch and claw to build our bankroll.

Concerning short term =Longterm? I gave the example of the short term on the missing 8 that I laid on dice serial # 256 at The D where 2 D.I's, a buddy name Randy and myself could not pluck out an 8 to save our life. Coincidence? Bad dice? I wish I had found that serial number for sale. I tried to get them but they would not sell to me. I even said please cancel these as ill be checking gift shop weekly. Nope. Never seem them. Guys like me see there is no eights and we don't bet it to hit but bet it NOT to hit. 3 eights in 108 rolls... Should be 15. So it's lagging by 12. So what has to happen over next 108 rolls or when it starts to hit it will make up this balance. It will go and hit 12 more times than the 15 per 108 rolls to balance out the books. The question we don't know is when will this happen. A Sure trigger is it hits twice within 5 rolls it now becomes the best bet in the casino over anything IMO.

So what do all you +EV guys play than?
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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June 27th, 2014 at 1:37:01 PM permalink
Quote: VegasDiceController

It's funny none of these math genius ever answered the original question.

that is simply because there is no such thing as "these math genius". never has been or ever will be

Quote: VegasDiceController

So what are the odds to hit all that twice while hitting the 12 six times during this single hand roll ?

Thx for taking the time to figure out. It fries my brain trying to do the Math.

fried brains.
excellent win!
your craps only bankroll must be way over $1 million by now.
No chance at all at busting that out. Just keep taking the casinos money.
Next stop at $10 million
That is where the fun is.

why do you now bring up a betting system, a losing one BTW, that was already "torn apart" - shown how bad it is -
by many others way back in 2005?
you must like the attention is my opinion.

your website must make at least $1 million each year doing that by itself.
that is very impressive that is.
Cool site and super cool pictures!

I have been playing Craps for only 3 years and I am stuck in the low $600,000 for my playing bankroll
nothing at all special
unless one considers that I only started with $5,000.
still, I agree, nothing at all special

oh well, it is those that have more fun
that win in the end

oh, your question again
"So what are the odds to hit all that twice while hitting the 12 six times during this single hand roll ?"

well, you either
DO or you DON'T

so your odds (not mine - just my opinion) are 50/50
just a flipo of a coin

really, nothing special about what you did, BTW
millions of my blind squirrel friends do this each and every day, not even thinking
but it is perfectly FINE to FEEL special.
ah, anything that gives a good feeling

did I offer any unsolicited advice?
I Heart Vi Hart
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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June 27th, 2014 at 1:37:09 PM permalink
Quote: VegasDiceController

3 eights in 108 rolls... Should be 15. So it's lagging by 12. So what has to happen over next 108 rolls or when it starts to hit it will make up this balance.

what you missed was the 108 rolls before the last 108 rolls
There were 29 8s that rolled

so over 216 rolls that makes 32 actual successes with and ev of 30
looks like 2 more rolled more than expected.

believe away
it has to be way more fun

I Heart Vi Hart
Joined: Dec 18, 2011
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June 27th, 2014 at 2:45:56 PM permalink
MS. exactly my point. It could of been strong to the 8's the hour prior right. So now it's balancing back on me by being gone for only 3 eights in 108 rolls. And like I said for 216 it's is 2 over probability for this short term. This is the part of the equation we do not know right? This is why I come to craps table 1 hr early and observe. This way I know if I should hammer the 8 like a $2 hooker, or proceed with caution as its "right" now and will get back to its 7.2 roll average.

So moral of the story. Get to tables 1hr early. ... LMAO

Concerning that systems of Dave's that was debunked back in 2005. Well WTF did you think I did, go back and read 9 yrs of post to find out a topic was already discussed and proven wrong by a Wizard on here? No. I just posted something I thought might be helpful. Forgive me for trying to help bro.
Joined: Jul 13, 2013
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June 27th, 2014 at 4:11:57 PM permalink
Quote: VegasDiceController

Exactly... Whoever is at the finish line first.... Who cares how we get there right.. We all know the MATH data will surface in the LOngrun, but we (us daily/weekly) guys believe in the short term fluctuations of the game and we try and exploit it. I personally play how the table is Trending at the time... If its Do side play than I'm getting odds on my bets... if it dictates Dont play then playing DONT side and giving up more $$$ to Win less usually if its not a flat bet...

Im the kind of player that if I notice a number gone, Say the 6 or 8 for this matter....GOne to me is 20-24 rolls... Ill lay it for $60 to win $50. Once I see a C.O7 or 7out, Ill parlay that risk and Win and bet next bet is $120 to win $100. this is the bet i wanna WIN... When it does, I now have won $49 and $95 net for a $144. It just became a FREE bet for me now and i repeat step 2. If i win the 3rd Leg of this LAY, i now advance UP and play another 3 tier Lay but my starting point is the middle level of the one i just came from so its $120/$100. Then the next is $240/200, then i repeat that. then advance up to a new 3 tier Lay again. etc etc... when do i stop? After i see (2) eights within 5 rolls of each other... hopefully when i do have 2 eight they are more than 5 rolls.

Now how many 7's of you think one should have with 108 rolls? exactly a lot.... my point is, I collected laying the eight at my base bet of a $50 win on a table and kept using my 3 tier progression bc i seen a table trend on a NO 8 or NO 6.... Where I exploit it, you MATH guys are placing that same 6 or 8 bc the math says it should hit every 7.2 rolls and we have only had 3 eights in 108 rolls...

I would be the type to pull down $1000 during this 1-1.5hr session betting they short term fluctuation of the game, where you would be getting you ass handed to you betting the 6 or 8 or whatever # was gone bc you play the number game where I play the table trend at the time.... hence the term TRENDSETTERCRAPS

did i mention when the 8 returned and i eventually loss my lay, that i had a 50% chance of not losing it a second time if it appeared w/in 5 rolls of first 8 appearance? so theres a chance i only give back 1 loss but guess what, when it returns you are betting it scared bc you got your ass handed to you by playing it over last hour or so...and are not sure if its gonna roll anymore and start doubting all this math stuff, bc its suppose to hit once every 7.2 rolls bc the big books says so.... so you bet it lightly mainly bc your buy in is deflated, where i come in knowing now the MATH of the game will surface and when the dust settles late tonight that this eight will catch up and BALANCE back out the MATH as we get closure to the LONGTERM eventuality of numbers balancing to true mathematics... so i play the 8 now knowing its the best # to be on bc now it was so far behind it has to balance and most times it does... not always but most times it will balance back while you are still at the table...

Boom, its the point and next roll point winner...co 7, co 11 co 8 again.. 1 roll later a 8 winner and so on... in fact i even play those shitty house edge bets you guys stay away from bc of the MATH.... Where I will be hopping a 3 way 8 or $6 or $15, and collecting 31:1 on a hopping Hard 8. ( yes i realize it big house edge), but bc of the table trending and balancing i put MY MATH on hold and bet this high HE and collect BIGTIME. These are the short term fluctuations i play.

But in the LONGTERM the math of the game will be there over 30,000 rolls of the dice. Im only concerned of the 144-180 rolls of that 30,000.

Cant tell you how many times i watched you math POKER GUYS who play EV games stroll over to the craps table and Lose your ass. I played with many BIGS at RIO during WSOP tournaments.

The best of the best in the Poker room, but BLOW on the Craps table unless they get lucky bc they play the Math of the game not the Table Trend during that hr session.PEACE

Most poker pros suck at other forms of gambling. They are just really bad.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
Joined: Nov 14, 2009
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June 28th, 2014 at 6:58:54 AM permalink
Quote: RaleighCraps

My favorite bet at this point is the extreme pressure on the Buy 4 and 10. Buy for $100, press to $300, press to $600, press to $1000.
After the second hit, you are up $250, after the third hit you are up $1000. And if the miracle 4th number comes, $2000 and down.

That's the best non-free bet on the table when they take the vig after the win.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
Joined: Jan 3, 2016
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February 25th, 2016 at 7:52:22 AM permalink
Just lost a 30-minute post in replying to this thread. Let me try a test.
Joined: May 22, 2013
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February 25th, 2016 at 8:13:48 AM permalink
Quote: eclectic

Just lost a 30-minute post in replying to this thread. Let me try a test.

Test worked, original didn't. I hate it when that jhit happens...;-)
Try your 30 minute post again, I can't wait.
Hmmmm, that didn't sound nice on my part.
What I meant was please try again.
The site needs some new heroes, and hell, we're runnin' low on villains too!
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F

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