vegasrvp
Joined: Jun 15, 2010
• Posts: 53
April 16th, 2014 at 10:59:13 AM permalink
Calling all you math and wincraps experts. I am looking to see how my overall odds stack up against this betting strategy.

Bankroll \$500
Bet size \$10
Odds always 2x

Betting strategy is as follows.

Bet the DP for \$10.
When a number is established lay 2x odds and make \$10 DC wager
When DC is established lay 2x odds and continue up to 4 total wagers. (1 DP and 3DC's) If point is achieved and DP is lost just treat the second DP as one of the 4 total wagers.

Regardless of wins or losses no more than 4 wagers are made on any one shooter.

If 12, 7, 11, 2 or 3 are rolled to either win or lose a DP or DC then just proceed as if that roll didn't happen.

The goal is to win \$100 before losing \$400. (the \$500 bankroll is to make sure full wagers can be achieved once \$400 loss has come close. Once a new shooter steps up and bankroll is less then \$100 the session is complete and is considered a loss.

Object is to learn odds of winning \$100 vs losing \$400?

Thanks and I am looking forward to the math.
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
• Posts: 2463
April 20th, 2014 at 11:04:59 AM permalink
Quote: vegasrvp

(the \$500 bankroll is to make sure full wagers can be achieved once \$400 loss has come close. Once a new shooter steps up and bankroll is less then \$100 the session is complete and is considered a loss.

Object is to learn odds of winning \$100 vs losing \$400?

Thanks and I am looking forward to the math.

You first have to show your math and what you think a close answer would be?
95%
90%
85%
lower?

Just thinking out loud, something like 400/500 - 1.4%*3 on the high side might be close

For just a don't pass with 2x lay odds I show from a 1 million player simulation:
400 bankroll and \$10 flat bets
Win goal was met . . . = 76.597% of the time ( 765969)
500 bankroll and \$10 flat bets
Win goal was met . . . = 80.104% of the time ( 801038)

you think max 4 don't bets with odds per shooter can do the same, better or worse?

here is my code for your system in WinCraps
both Classic and Pro
`'Classic When . . .          Initializing Auto-Bet then . . .          Set Auto-Handle Winning Bets to "Take Bet and Winnings"          Set Auto-Lay Full Odds to False          Name Chip-Stack # 0 as "# of completed sessions"          Name Chip-Stack # 1 as "# of lay odds bets made"          Bet \$ 10 on Don't Pass          Go to "end" While . . .          Last roll was a come-out roll          A point is established on any number          Don't Pass is greater than \$ 0 then . . .          Add \$ 1 to Chip-Stack # 1          Set Auto-Lay Full Odds to True          Set Auto-Lay Full Odds to False          Go to "status" While . . .          Chip-Stack # 1 is equal to \$ 4 then . . .          Go to "status" While . . .          Don't Come 4 is greater than \$ 0          Don't Come 4 Odds is equal to \$ 0     or while . . .          Don't Come 10 is greater than \$ 0          Don't Come 10 Odds is equal to \$ 0     or while . . .          Don't Come 5 is greater than \$ 0          Don't Come 5 Odds is equal to \$ 0     or while . . .          Don't Come 9 is greater than \$ 0          Don't Come 9 Odds is equal to \$ 0     or while . . .          Don't Come 6 is greater than \$ 0          Don't Come 6 Odds is equal to \$ 0     or while . . .          Don't Come 8 is greater than \$ 0          Don't Come 8 Odds is equal to \$ 0 then . . .          Add \$ 1 to Chip-Stack # 1          Set Auto-Lay Full Odds to True          Set Auto-Lay Full Odds to False status When . . .          A point is decided "against" any number then . . .          Bet \$ 0 on Chip-Stack # 1 'check to make new bets While . . .          A point is established on any number          Chip-Stack # 1 is less than \$ 4 then . . .          Bet \$ 10 on Don't Come While . . .          Next roll is a come-out roll          Chip-Stack # 1 is less than \$ 4 then . . .          Bet \$ 10 on Don't Pass While . . .          Bankroll is not less than \$ 600     or while . . .          Bankroll is less than \$ 100          A point is decided "against" any number then . . .          Add \$ 1 to Chip-Stack # 0          Bet \$ 0 on Chip-Stack # 1          Reset table (preserve Chip-Stacks)          Bet \$ 10 on Don't Pass When . . .          Chip-Stack # 0 is equal to \$ 10000 then . . .          Stop Auto-Rolling / Hyper-Drive          Bet \$ 0 on all bets end'and another Classic for input on the number of max odds bets to make per shooter and sessions to run When . . .          Initializing Auto-Bet then . . .          Set Auto-Handle Winning Bets to "Take Bet and Winnings"          Set Auto-Lay Full Odds to False          Name Chip-Stack # 0 as "# of completed sessions"          Name Chip-Stack # 1 as "# of lay odds bets made"          Name Chip-Stack # 2 as "MAX # of lay odds bets make per shooter"          Show message: "enter MAX # of don't ODDS bets to make per shooter"          Get input and bet it on Chip-Stack # 2          Name Chip-Stack # 3 as "sessions to run"          Show message: "enter MAX # of sessions to run"          Get input and bet it on Chip-Stack # 3          Bet \$ 10 on Don't Pass          Go to "end" While . . .          Last roll was a come-out roll          A point is established on any number          Don't Pass is greater than \$ 0 then . . .          Add \$ 1 to Chip-Stack # 1          Set Auto-Lay Full Odds to True          Set Auto-Lay Full Odds to False          Go to "status" While . . .          Chip-Stack # 1 is equal to Chip-Stack # 2 then . . .          Go to "status" While . . .          Don't Come 4 is greater than \$ 0          Don't Come 4 Odds is equal to \$ 0     or while . . .          Don't Come 10 is greater than \$ 0          Don't Come 10 Odds is equal to \$ 0     or while . . .          Don't Come 5 is greater than \$ 0          Don't Come 5 Odds is equal to \$ 0     or while . . .          Don't Come 9 is greater than \$ 0          Don't Come 9 Odds is equal to \$ 0     or while . . .          Don't Come 6 is greater than \$ 0          Don't Come 6 Odds is equal to \$ 0     or while . . .          Don't Come 8 is greater than \$ 0          Don't Come 8 Odds is equal to \$ 0 then . . .          Add \$ 1 to Chip-Stack # 1          Set Auto-Lay Full Odds to True          Set Auto-Lay Full Odds to False status When . . .          A point is decided "against" any number then . . .          Bet \$ 0 on Chip-Stack # 1 'check to make new bets While . . .          A point is established on any number          Chip-Stack # 1 is less than Chip-Stack # 2 then . . .          Bet \$ 10 on Don't Come While . . .          Next roll is a come-out roll          Chip-Stack # 1 is less than Chip-Stack # 2 then . . .          Bet \$ 10 on Don't Pass While . . .          Bankroll is not less than \$ 600     or while . . .          Bankroll is less than \$ 100          A point is decided "against" any number then . . .          Add \$ 1 to Chip-Stack # 0          Bet \$ 0 on Chip-Stack # 1          Reset table (preserve Chip-Stacks)          Bet \$ 10 on Don't Pass When . . .          Chip-Stack # 0 is equal to Chip-Stack # 3 then . . .          Stop Auto-Rolling / Hyper-Drive          Bet \$ 0 on all bets end'ProIf   Initializing scriptThen   AutoHandle Winning bets = "Take Bet and Winnings" :   AutoLay full odds = false :   Name CheckStack0 as "number of completed sessions" :   Name CheckStack1 as "number of lay odds bets made" :   Bet \$10 on DontPass :   GoTo "end"EndIfIf Beginning new session Then Bet \$10 on DontPass : GoTo "end" EndIfIf   Last roll was a comeout roll And   A point is established on any(4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10) And   DontPass is greater than \$0Then   Add \$1 to CheckStack1 :   AutoLay full odds = true :   AutoLay full odds = false :   GoTo "status"EndIfIf CheckStack1 is equal to \$4 Then GoTo "status" EndIf'count number of lay odds bets madeIf   DontCome4 is greater than \$0 And   DontComeOdds4 is equal to \$0   Or   DontCome10 is greater than \$0 And   DontComeOdds10 is equal to \$0   Or   DontCome5 is greater than \$0 And   DontComeOdds5 is equal to \$0   Or   DontCome9 is greater than \$0 And   DontComeOdds9 is equal to \$0   Or   DontCome6 is greater than \$0 And   DontComeOdds6 is equal to \$0   Or   DontCome8 is greater than \$0 And   DontComeOdds8 is equal to \$0Then   Add \$1 to CheckStack1 :   AutoLay full odds = true :   AutoLay full odds = falseEndIf: "status" :If   A point is decided AGAINST any(4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10)Then   Bet \$0 on CheckStack1EndIf'check to make new betsIf   A point is established on any(4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10) And   CheckStack1 is less than \$4Then   Bet \$10 on DontComeEndIfIf   Next roll is a comeout roll And   CheckStack1 is less than \$4Then   Bet \$10 on DontPassEndIfIf   Bankroll >= \$600   Or   Bankroll < \$100 And   A point is decided AGAINST any(4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10)Then   Add \$1 to CheckStack0 :   Bet \$0 on CheckStack1 :   If      CheckStack0 = 10000   Then      Stop AutoRolling / HyperDrive :      Bet \$0 on all(bets)   EndIf   Start new session(preserve checkstacks, dice roll file)EndIf: "end" :`

Sally
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odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
• Posts: 8464
April 20th, 2014 at 12:55:26 PM permalink
you certainly have a modest goal. You really quit if up \$100?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
vegasrvp
Joined: Jun 15, 2010
• Posts: 53
April 21st, 2014 at 8:37:06 AM permalink
I'm just using basic numbers to get an idea of the odds.

You can use any numbers.

Do you think the numbers are any better if I go up \$500 or Down \$500 vs up \$100 or down \$500?

I was just looking at a realistic number to call a session that can actually be achieved in time at the table. I know it is easy to run 1 million simulations in about 10 minutes but playing at the tables is completely different. You only get to run one at a time and a few in a visit.

Don't get me wrong I appreciate the simulations, but they are only a long term way of playing out the odds the casinos have already in place. Those odds are good for the casino. In a smaller session I am looking to get the most bang for my buck which to me is loosing less and gaining comps. If I can play higher numbers with the lowest possible risk, that is the game for me. Now add that to the game of craps where it is just fun to do....then I count myself a winner.
vegasrvp
Joined: Jun 15, 2010
• Posts: 53
April 21st, 2014 at 8:40:49 AM permalink
Thanks again Sally. You seem to always be the one who helps me out.

Do you believe equalling the win vs loss totals (ie....win \$500 or lose \$500) or even inverting them (ie...win \$500 before losing \$200 or something of this nature ) is a better strategy?
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
• Posts: 2463
April 21st, 2014 at 10:48:03 AM permalink
I did not show any results for what you asked.

I wanted first to see what your thoughts were.
still do

I only simulated 1 million other players trying to win \$100 with \$400 or \$500 to start
by only betting the don't pass the 2X lay odds.

For your max 4 lay odds bets, what do you think are your chances?
same, better or worse

Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
vegasrvp
Joined: Jun 15, 2010
• Posts: 53
April 21st, 2014 at 11:00:32 AM permalink
I believe each of the 4 would be the same as individual plays.

I do think there is going to be an advantage as you build 4 plays to win on the 7out roll but don't really think the odds will be crazy better overall.

My gut tells me that the overall advantage will come out on the side of the casino in the general odds of the game.
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
• Posts: 2463
April 22nd, 2014 at 9:24:58 AM permalink
Quote: vegasrvp

I believe each of the 4 would be the same as individual plays.

and if you make just 2 or 3 or 4 max odds bet per shooter
same chance of hitting your target (win goal) of \$100 and stopping as just making one don't pass with odds with the \$400 bankroll.
This is the same with pass/come bets trying to hit win goals.

Of course the less bets made per shooter the longer it takes to hit the target or the stop loss.

Quote: vegasrvp

I do think there is going to be an advantage as you build 4 plays to win on the 7out roll but don't really think the odds will be crazy better overall.

My gut tells me that the overall advantage will come out on the side of the casino in the general odds of the game.

there is no advantage to how many bets you make trying to hit a win goal one time.
As to trying to double your \$500 before losing \$500.

If you have an 80% chance of winning \$100 one time (dpass) and starting each session over again with the same \$500
it takes 5 times in a row to win \$500 or so
80%^5= 32.768% chance of success before one loss

But starting with \$500 and playing until win \$500 or lose \$500 and not taking any winnings from your current bankroll, if any =
Win goal was met . . . = 44.834% of the time ( 448340)

this is because you are using any running profits during play that can keep you playing.
Who cares if you have a \$500 loss right at the start if you started with \$700 instead of just \$500
and a session could span may hours and many days too.

we only really play one lifetime session, we just hit the pause button when we want to stop playing.

My WinCraps code now also shows for Classic the inputs for how many odds bets to make per shooter and the number of sessions to play in hyper-drive mode.

now
instead of one \$10 dpass with 2x odds how about a \$10 with 345x odds.
Better chance to win \$500 as the win goal?
Win goal was met . . . = 47.621% of the time ( 476206)
interest ing

Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
vegasrvp
Joined: Jun 15, 2010
• Posts: 53
April 22nd, 2014 at 9:57:14 AM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

But starting with \$500 and playing until win \$500 or lose \$500 and not taking any winnings from your current bankroll, if any =
Win goal was met . . . = 44.834% of the time ( 448340)

this is because you are using any running profits during play that can keep you playing.
Who cares if you have a \$500 loss right at the start if you started with \$700 instead of just \$500
and a session could span may hours and many days too.

instead of one \$10 dpass with 2x odds how about a \$10 with 345x odds.
Better chance to win \$500 as the win goal?
Win goal was met . . . = 47.621% of the time ( 476206)
interest ing

I like the 47.621% with full odds. Am I correct in stating that the odds are 10.99% that you would then have three losing sessions in a row?

mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
• Posts: 2463
April 22nd, 2014 at 10:21:01 AM permalink
Quote: vegasrvp

I like the 47.621% with full odds. Am I correct in stating that the odds are 10.99% that you would then have three losing sessions in a row?

10.7993% to have 3 winning sessions in a row

14.3705% to have 3 losing (ouch) sessions in a row
win 1 lose 2 (ouch) = 39.1953%
3 * .47621 * (1-.47621)^2

win 2 and lose 1 = 35.6349%
3 * .47621^2 * (1-.47621)

win at least 2 out of 3 sessions = 46.43419%

winning is fun
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart