Parlaying everything hasnt worked out (so far)

e-Craps, 3/4/5x, Playing Dark.
it's treated like a slot machine, so a w2g if winnings PLUS original bet = $1200+

my goal is to have the machine payout as close to $1199 as possible as quick as possible, then walk away.

$35 don't/$210 odds. If I win, parlay all winnings + original bet thus next bets are:
$60dont/360 odds
100dont/600 odds

if I win at $100, I walk away with ~$900 profit.

I just need three 7 outs in a row. Simple, right? (NOPE!)

I bring with me a little more than 3x the $ on the table ($800). Quick in and out either way.

went to the casino 5 times this past month. NEVER had three 7 outs in a row. :(
so 15 bets and never once three 7 outs in a row. what are the odds of that?

down -$4000. DOH!


going to switch back to Fibonacci press:
1,1,2,3,5,8,13, etc

Going to try not to risk my original bet as much as possible.
bankroll preservation-> Just press with (some) winnings.
and enjoy the time at the table.

Quote: 100xOdds

went to the casino 5 times this past month. NEVER had three 7 outs in a row. :(
so 15 bets and never once three 7 outs in a row. what are the odds of that?

Ignoring Come Out winners/losers, or taking them into consideration?

Quote: Mission146

Quote: 100xOdds

went to the casino 5 times this past month. NEVER had three 7 outs in a row. :(
so 15 bets and never once three 7 outs in a row. what are the odds of that?

Ignoring Come Out winners/losers, or taking them into consideration?

yes, ignoring 7 on the come out. (thus why I brought a little more than 3x the $ on table to cover.)
just three 7 outs after the point is established.

Quote: 100xOdds

yes, ignoring 7 on the come out. (thus why I brought a little more than 3x the $ on table to cover.)
just three 7 outs after the point is established.

Okay, so basically what we are doing is discluding Come Out decisions, so 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 and 10 are the only applicable results. There is a total of 24 possibilities for the Come Out Roll if we only include these.

Probability 4/10-Seven-Out: (3/24 * 6/9) = 0.08333333333 * 2 = .166667

Probability 5/9-Seven-Out: (4/24 * 6/10) = .1 * 2 = .2

Probability 6/8-Seven-Out: (5/24 * 6/11) = .11363636364 * 2 = 0.22727272726

Totals: 0.22727272726 + .2 + .166667 = 0.59393972726

Three Consecutive: (0.59393972726)^3 = .209521

Success: 20.9521%
Failure: 79.0479%

The probability of failure is .790479, you've failed five times in a row, thus:

(.790479)^5 = 0.30863962626

The probability of five consecutive failures is 30.863962626%

Not even remotely close to unlikely, I'm afraid.

no, I failed 15 times.
I bring enough for 3 bets per day. done it for 5 days
3 x 5 = 15 tries of getting three consecutive 7 outs

(.790479)^15 = 2.94% ?

Quote: 100xOdds

no, I failed 15 times.
I bring enuf for 3 bets per day. done it for 5 days
3 x 5 = 15

(.790479)^15 = 2.94% ?

That's correct, please excuse me, when you said, "15 bets," you were referring to 15 total attempts. By fifteen bets, I was assuming (up to) three bets per attempt * five attempts = 15 bets.

2.94% would be the probability of fifteen consecutive failures. This is a somewhat unlikely result, occurring only 1/.0294 = 1 in 34 times approximately.

It is, however, easy to fall into the Gambler's Fallacy with something like this. We must remember that, having failed, the probability of failure on the next attempt remains 79.0479%. Having failed on two consecutive attempts, the probability of failure on the third remains 79.0479% and so on.

That having been said, in terms of consecutive failures, if you experience them, then the overall result will become even less likely. However, your probability of success on your very next attempt remains 20.9521%.

Sounds about right. Unlucky, that's for sure, but not unexpected. Just like how I haven't hit a 15-1 payoff or better counting lucky lucky over about 20 hours, but I've seen the ploppies hit them at least a dozen times now. Stinky happens.

I guess I fell into gambler's fallacy:
In the $1M I put thru this machine in the past 2 yrs (according to the points on my rewards card) at either $10pass/max odds/continuous come or single $35 don't/max odds, I don't think I've seen so many points hit in 15 pass or don't pass bets.
(I was actually up $5000 in 2013.)

the machine shows the rolls for the last 15 points.

so if I went passline instead of don't pass, I would be raking in the $$$. sigh..
but somehow I know if I switch now, it'll be a COLD table (of course).

thx for the hard math to remind me of gambler's fallacy.
seeing patterns + streaks out of randomness

100xOdds,

It's no problem, Gambler's Fallacy is definitely an easy trap to fall into. I fell into it (though it didn't cost me anything I wouldn't have been betting anyway, as the bet amount did not vary) playing a little VP last week. I was playing JoB and had lost thirteen hands in a row, muttered to myself, "Well, this next one is almost certain to win." Of course, it was no more or less likely to win than any of the hands before that, but again, it didn't hurt me because I did not vary my bet amount as a result.

Full House, dealt, by the way....friggin' finally!

In any case, I'm curious as to how many Point numbers did hit, did you keep track? I'm just wondering how your results would have compared to flat-betting the Don't Pass + Odds during this series. I'm mainly interested in these fifteen attempts how many combinations went:

LOSE
WIN-LOSE
WIN-WIN-LOSE

It's quite possible that you had as many, or more, Seven-Outs than expected, but it didn't seem that way, because the press was constantly losing.

If you happen to know the exact number of winners vs. losers in the total amount of plays, then it would be easy to determine a Z-Score for that and tell you the probability of that (or worse, or better) happening.

not that the reality changes but instead of parlaying the next bet sit out until a PL winner happens then drop the parlay bet.

mission:

I didn't keep count of the win-lose pattern.

but I do remember only 1 in the 15 got to win-win-lose. I only got to $100dont/$600 odds once.
and there was one day where the point hit 3x in a row so it was lose-lose-lose w/o any wins. :(

What are the min/max allowed bets on thse e-dice machines, hey hey?

varies of course but here are my 2 examples of interlock machines:

hollywood hardrock: 10 to 10,000
magic city: 5 to 500
------ but for magic city there is a max on each individual bet of 50 (ie cant do 100 on place 6)
magic city has a e-baccarrat which is 5 to 500 but havent played it

Note that if your total bets for one roll pay out over $1200, that's a hand-pay and a W2G. So, playing for high stakes is a pain in the ass -- you are better off at a real table, just to avoid the paperwork.