vegasrvp
vegasrvp
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March 21st, 2014 at 10:22:08 AM permalink
I read over and over again about all the betting systems that fail miserably and fully agree with everything I have ever read regarding this information.

That being said I love to look at possibilities because it is just plane fun.

Here is my latest. Please tell me why this will not work and what the overall double vs bust percentages work out to be.

Strategy is to play the Don't Passand DC with double odds

If 7 / 11 / 2 / 3 or 12 hits at anytime we will just re-bet the same amount again.

Origional bank is 400 units:
Goal is to Double or bust. (If the pot gets's to low to make the last bet just complete previous wager.)

OK, here is betting system:

Wager 1 = Don't Pass for 1 unit
2/3/7/11/12 = re-bet same amount
Point established = Play Double Odds & Don't come

This will continue as long as a DC is not lost, or a 7out doesn't occur.
if 7out occurs then start session over
if a DC is lost move base bet up one unit and continue as above.

Going forward anytime 7 out is achieved start over with one unit on the Don't Pass.

Every time a DC point is hit causing a loss on the number thrown then move the base bet up 1 unit.

Example Roll:
6 point, 4 8 3 9 5 4 9 12 8 5 3 11 8 10 9 5 3 10 7

6 point = one unit plus 2x odds **W**
4 = one unit plus 2x odds
3 = DC winner
9 = one unit plus 2x odds
5 = one unit plus 2x odds
4 = one unit plus 2x odds (Lose previous 4 DC and bump base to 2 units) **W**
9 = two units plus 2x odds (Lose previous 9 DC and bump base to 3 units)
12 = three unit push
8 = three units plus 2x odds
5 = three units plus 2x odds (Lose previous 5 DC and bump base to 4 units)
3 = four unit winner
11 = four unit loser
8 = four unit plus 2x odds (Lose previous 8 DC and bump base to 5 units) **W**
10 = five units plus 2x odds
9 = five units plus 2x odds (Lose previous 9 DC and bump base to 6 units) **W**
5 = six units plus 2x odds (Lose previous 5 DC and bump base to 7 units) **W**
3 = seven unit winner
10 = seven units plus 2x odds (Lose previous 10 DC and bump base to 8 units) **W**
7 = winner all DC ( **W** 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 & 10) with odds and Don't pass while losing 8 unit DC

I believe this is an overall lose of 4 units for this example.

Using a $5 per unit ratio it is a loss of $19 if my math is correct.....which it usually isn't.

The goal is to double the 400 unit total vs busting.

With no programs to use and just going on my basic instinct I am guessing this will double about 40-45% of the time?

Let the debate begin.

Thanks
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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March 21st, 2014 at 10:30:35 AM permalink
Quote: vegasrvp

Here is my latest. Please tell me why this will not work and what the overall double vs bust percentages work out to be.
Strategy is to play the Don't Passand DC with double odds


Nothing wrong with that. I'd only suggest increasing your odds before increasing your line bets. It's cheaper in the long run.
Quote:

The goal is to double the 400 unit total vs busting.
With no programs to use and just going on my basic instinct I am guessing this will double about 40-45% of the time?


I'm not going to simulate your system for you, but you already seem to understand "why this will not work" based on those numbers alone. If you bust out 55-60% of the time and double 40-45% of the time (and then stop), you have an expected loss on your bankroll of between 10% and 20%. Mathematically, it's no different than flipping a biased coin, it just takes longer. Of course, we'd both rather play dice for several hours than flip a coin once.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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March 21st, 2014 at 10:40:05 AM permalink
Quote: vegasrvp

I read over and over again about all the betting systems that fail miserably and fully agree with everything I have ever read regarding this information.

That being said I love to look at possibilities because it is just plane fun.

Here is my latest. Please tell me why this will not work and what the overall double vs bust percentages work out to be.

Strategy is to play the Don't Passand DC with double odds

If 7 / 11 / 2 / 3 or 12 hits at anytime we will just re-bet the same amount again.

Origional bank is 400 units:
Goal is to Double or bust. (If the pot gets's to low to make the last bet just complete previous wager.)

OK, here is betting system:

Wager 1 = Don't Pass for 1 unit
2/3/7/11/12 = re-bet same amount
Point established = Play Double Odds & Don't come

This will continue as long as a DC is not lost, or a 7out doesn't occur.
if 7out occurs then start session over
if a DC is lost move base bet up one unit and continue as above.

Going forward anytime 7 out is achieved start over with one unit on the Don't Pass.

Every time a DC point is hit causing a loss on the number thrown then move the base bet up 1 unit.

Example Roll:
6 point, 4 8 3 9 5 4 9 12 8 5 3 11 8 10 9 5 3 10 7

6 point = one unit plus 2x odds **W**
4 = one unit plus 2x odds
3 = DC winner
9 = one unit plus 2x odds
5 = one unit plus 2x odds
4 = one unit plus 2x odds (Lose previous 4 DC and bump base to 2 units) **W**
9 = two units plus 2x odds (Lose previous 9 DC and bump base to 3 units)
12 = three unit push
8 = three units plus 2x odds
5 = three units plus 2x odds (Lose previous 5 DC and bump base to 4 units)
3 = four unit winner
11 = four unit loser
8 = four unit plus 2x odds (Lose previous 8 DC and bump base to 5 units) **W**
10 = five units plus 2x odds
9 = five units plus 2x odds (Lose previous 9 DC and bump base to 6 units) **W**
5 = six units plus 2x odds (Lose previous 5 DC and bump base to 7 units) **W**
3 = seven unit winner
10 = seven units plus 2x odds (Lose previous 10 DC and bump base to 8 units) **W**
7 = winner all DC ( **W** 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 & 10) with odds and Don't pass while losing 8 unit DC

I believe this is an overall lose of 4 units for this example.

Using a $5 per unit ratio it is a loss of $19 if my math is correct.....which it usually isn't.

The goal is to double the 400 unit total vs busting.

With no programs to use and just going on my basic instinct I am guessing this will double about 40-45% of the time?

Let the debate begin.

Thanks

Sorry no debate here. You have a losing system, you know its a loser you want to play it for fun good luck that's your business. Everyone has a losing system all work well. If you want a debate, you must claim it wins and you make money doing it in Falls view or AC.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
vegasrvp
vegasrvp
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March 21st, 2014 at 10:59:11 AM permalink
I have won with this system.

The problem is I have no idea how long it can continue since I only have my own personal experience to deal with.

That is why I am looking for the math.

Thanks
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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March 21st, 2014 at 2:11:37 PM permalink
Three questions:

First, you left out the first 8 in your list of rolls (you list the first four rolls as 6, 4, 8, 3, but the results are 6, 4, 3 without the 8).
(Okay, it's really "two questions and a comment.")

Second, on your second four, since you lost the DC bet that was on your first four, shouldn't that bet be two units instead of one?

Third, what do you do if someone makes a point and then rolls 7 on the Come-Out? (I assume that DC bets are still "on" on the come-out, so the DC bet you just made loses, but all of your other standing DC bets win.) Is this a reset situation?

Wait a minute...if somebody makes a point, wouldn't your next bet be DP instead of DC?
vegasrvp
vegasrvp
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March 21st, 2014 at 2:33:27 PM permalink
1. You are correct about leaving out the 8. Good eye.
2. It cannot be two as the DC bet was placed before the 4 was rolled resulting in the next DC bet being 2 units.
3. A seven on the come out roll establishing a new point would be a continuation of the session with the allocated amount being played on the Don't Pass vs the DC. A session is only completed with a 7out.

YES....if a point is won the next 1 unit increased bet would be on the DP not the DC.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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March 21st, 2014 at 10:45:40 PM permalink
My bad on #2 - I forgot that you are listing the bets before the roll, not after.

I did a Monte Carlo (albeit over "only" about 250,000 runs) and got about 44% success, which is in your expected range.
Tanko
Tanko
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March 22nd, 2014 at 2:42:53 AM permalink
Quote: vegasrvp

The goal is to double the 400 unit total vs busting.


Ran twelve sims using WinCraps Pro.

Busted eight times.
Won four.
vegasrvp
vegasrvp
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March 24th, 2014 at 7:56:08 AM permalink
Thanks.

I didn't think it would be that bad. LOL
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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March 24th, 2014 at 8:26:26 AM permalink
Quote: vegasrvp

Thanks.

I didn't think it would be that bad. LOL



That's not that bad. There are very few people who play a 'system' on most casino games that give them a 44% chance of doubling their stake. Since you picked craps, the player who is buying numbers, betting hardways, an occasional 'yo', will double their stake far less frequently than you will. If you can go 9 times and double 4, lose 5, you are doing better than the great majority of recreational casino gamblers.
vegasrvp
vegasrvp
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March 24th, 2014 at 8:30:47 AM permalink
Will you please take a look at my back to back "7's" posting?
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