Judgedave
Judgedave
Joined: Feb 24, 2014
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February 24th, 2014 at 8:57:21 AM permalink
Hello. Obviously, the new casino bet on which I am about to inquire is a BAD bet... I'm just looking for confirmation as HOW bad. The bet is simple. You can either choose "All High"(8,9,10,11,12) or "All Low"(2,3,4,5,6). ie., betting All High you are betting on all five of the high numbers to be thrown before a 7 comes up. The payout is 34-1. I calculated the probability at (6X3X2X1.5X1.2)=64.8:1, which would give the house an advantage on the order of 47%. Are my calculations correct? They also offer an even more ridiculous bet where the player chooses All All (2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10,11,12) and pays out a "generous" 160-1. IF my earlier probability reasoning is correct, then THAT probability is a staggering (64.8^2)=4199:1. I look forward to input, and thanks!
wudged
wudged
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CrapsGenious
CrapsGenious
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February 24th, 2014 at 10:13:08 AM permalink
Quote: Judgedave

Hello. Obviously, the new casino bet on which I am about to inquire is a BAD bet... I'm just looking for confirmation as HOW bad. The bet is simple. You can either choose "All High"(8,9,10,11,12) or "All Low"(2,3,4,5,6). ie., betting All High you are betting on all five of the high numbers to be thrown before a 7 comes up. The payout is 34-1. I calculated the probability at (6X3X2X1.5X1.2)=64.8:1, which would give the house an advantage on the order of 47%. Are my calculations correct? They also offer an even more ridiculous bet where the player chooses All All (2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10,11,12) and pays out a "generous" 160-1. IF my earlier probability reasoning is correct, then THAT probability is a staggering (64.8^2)=4199:1. I look forward to input, and thanks!



I see it as just another bet. Thats pretty easy to do at 34:1 compared to getting nothing from casinos that don't offer this.
8 more years till retirement.
RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
Joined: Feb 20, 2010
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February 24th, 2014 at 10:43:43 AM permalink
Quote: Judgedave

Hello. Obviously, the new casino bet on which I am about to inquire is a BAD bet... I'm just looking for confirmation as HOW bad. The bet is simple. You can either choose "All High"(8,9,10,11,12) or "All Low"(2,3,4,5,6). ie., betting All High you are betting on all five of the high numbers to be thrown before a 7 comes up. The payout is 34-1. I calculated the probability at (6X3X2X1.5X1.2)=64.8:1, which would give the house an advantage on the order of 47%. Are my calculations correct? They also offer an even more ridiculous bet where the player chooses All All (2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10,11,12) and pays out a "generous" 160-1. IF my earlier probability reasoning is correct, then THAT probability is a staggering (64.8^2)=4199:1. I look forward to input, and thanks!



As pointed out, Wiz has the math on that bet, and I believe it comes in around 7%.
You have the ALL listed at 160:1 though. I have only seen the bet pay at 175 for 1, which again, is what the Wiz did the math for. At 160 for 1, that would make the HE worse.

It's a fun bet. I have hit the bet for $1,225 three times, and the Small or Tall a couple more, so this is one bet on the craps table that I am definitely ahead on for my lifetime.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
CrapsGenious
CrapsGenious
Joined: Dec 24, 2013
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February 24th, 2014 at 2:39:49 PM permalink
Quote: RaleighCraps

As pointed out, Wiz has the math on that bet, and I believe it comes in around 7%.
You have the ALL listed at 160:1 though. I have only seen the bet pay at 175 for 1, which again, is what the Wiz did the math for. At 160 for 1, that would make the HE worse.

It's a fun bet. I have hit the bet for $1,225 three times, and the Small or Tall a couple more, so this is one bet on the craps table that I am definitely ahead on for my lifetime.



I saw this bet made 1 time only in all the years i've played. I remember the shooter only needed the 12 and he rolled it making every number before 7 out.

Even though I do see on many occasions the small or tall quite a bit, I still think the firebet is best for those long term prop bets. I see way too many made over the years.
8 more years till retirement.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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February 24th, 2014 at 3:27:07 PM permalink
Quote: CrapsGenious

I saw this bet made 1 time only in all the years i've played. I remember the shooter only needed the 12 and he rolled it making every number before 7 out.



Really? I saw it made twice in about an hour once.
Judgedave
Judgedave
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February 24th, 2014 at 8:52:54 PM permalink
Thanks for the great responses. I was way off on this being the worst bet of all time. Are there any links to the actual math of the calculations? I am 25 years removed from combinatory math, and would love to see how this was worked out. I'm not sure if "The Wiz" has that available on here or not.
PBguy
PBguy
Joined: Sep 4, 2013
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February 24th, 2014 at 9:07:26 PM permalink
A local casino had this bet for a few months. I hit it the very first time I bet it (all small IIRC). Never hit it again after that but then I didn't bet it regularly. I think they found it too cumbersome to keep track of to make it worthwhile so they got rid of it. Plus regulars stopped betting it after the novelty wore off.
Judgedave
Judgedave
Joined: Feb 24, 2014
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February 24th, 2014 at 9:22:00 PM permalink
A friend of mine who works at the local Illinois riverboat is a craps dealer where this bet is just now being offered, and he is bitching about that very thing... he says it is really slowing the game down.
Beethoven9th
Beethoven9th
Joined: Jul 30, 2012
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February 24th, 2014 at 10:43:48 PM permalink
Quote: CrapsGenious

Even though I do see on many occasions the small or tall quite a bit, I still think the firebet is best for those long term prop bets. I see way too many made over the years.

Um...the Fire Bet is worse (as far as HE is concerned). As for the All or Nothing/All Tall/All Small bets, people play this all the time at the Wynn, MGM Grand, etc.


Quote: Judgedave

A friend of mine who works at the local Illinois riverboat is a craps dealer where this bet is just now being offered, and he is bitching about that very thing... he says it is really slowing the game down.

I don't see how this could be slowing the game down so much. All the box needs to do is mark each number after it's rolled. That takes about 2 seconds. I can see how it would get annoying to constantly keep track of all the numbers, but I don't see how it slows everything down.
Fighting BS one post at a time!

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