TerribleTom
TerribleTom
Joined: Feb 18, 2014
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February 18th, 2014 at 4:08:51 PM permalink
Quote: CrapsGenious

yes creating and autobet script will give you what your looking for in sessions / game history.

It's just very weird to see 8 roll 3 times in a row many times over or point 7 5 numbers in a row. Sometimes adjusting the dice probabilities to adjust to the opposite of what you play will give you a "Does this system hold water approach" for example:

My wife and I play 6/8 for $12.00 (She plays the 8, i play the 6) for our craps entertainment.
After 1 win drop $4.00 to make the 6 or 8 look like $30.
After another win, get 1.00 change and Tell dealer to place all the numbers for $64 across.

If I wanted to test this in wincraps I would adjust the 6 and 8 in the probabilities tab and set the 6/8 to 4 instead of 5 and then leave the other numbers including the 7 untouched.

This allows win craps to run many simulations with a negative result. I then compare it for real table feel Dice influencers know how to avoid the 7 by at least 25% of the time so I change the 7 in probabilities to 4 instead of 6 leaving the 6/8 set also at 4. (This gives me a much better outcome comparable to live table.

Playing the dark side is the same by adjusting the 7 to a lower number and 6/8 to a higher number (Example: in probabilities change the 7 to 4 and 6/8 to 6.

In my experience at the craps table, I do notice quite a few shooters will roll 2 points before a 7 even though some shooters roll 15-20 numbers many are repeated.

if you notice your wincraps settings allow for the average shooter to make 3 to 4 points then adjust the probabilities till you start to see an average of 2 points made before a 7-out is made. (keep in mind adjusting these probabilities does not mean that you will stop seeing Point-7outs, they still happen)



Gotcha. By adjusting the odds against your betting strategy you give yourself a "little bit of bad luck" kind of table.

I'll agree wholeheartedly that computerized random number generator and dice on a table are not the same.
TerribleTom
TerribleTom
Joined: Feb 18, 2014
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February 19th, 2014 at 5:27:59 PM permalink
My Excel spreadsheet seems overly optimistic. When I review the results line by line, everything appears to be correct. But when I have it calculate 10K rolls of the dice, I often get startlingly positive results.

For example:
Buy in with $200, bet $10 on DP, lay odds as mentioned in the OP (3X/4X/3X).
Double your money on Roll 52
Triple your money on Roll 105
Quadruple your money on Roll 158
Bust on Roll 1852
Maximum Bankroll $10872

10K rolls 10 more times...
----------------------------------
Bust on Roll 53

Double your money on Roll 17
Triple your money on Roll 41
Quadruple your money on Roll 212
Bust on Roll N/A
Maximum Bankroll $13552

Double your money on Roll 82
Triple your money on Roll 162
Quadruple your money on Roll 300
Bust on Roll NA
Maximum Bankroll $13586

Bust on Roll 123

Bust on Roll 22

Bust on Roll 13

Double your money on Roll 29
Triple your money on Roll 59
Quadruple your money on Roll 100
Bust on Roll N/A
Maximum Bankroll $14246

Double your money on Roll 39
Triple your money on Roll 207
Quadruple your money on Roll 435
Bust on Roll NA
Maximum Bankroll $12210

Double your money on Roll 48
Triple your money on Roll 63
Quadruple your money on Roll 86
Bust on Roll NA
Maximum Bankroll $11824

Bust on Roll 12
----------------------------------

Given results like that, I can't get to a craps table fast enough!

Set up the same variables in WinCraps and you bust out every time. Best I've seen on a $200 bankroll is $700-something, it certainly never gets anywhere near $10K.

To give you an idea of the apparently correct calculations from my spreadsheet:
Bet $10 - Roll 1 = 11 - Bankroll = $190
Bet $10 - Roll 2 = 6 - Lay Odds, Bankroll = $144
Roll 6 = 6 - Point Hit, Bankroll = $144
Bet $10 - Roll 7 = 10 - Lay Odds, Bankroll = $74
Roll 8 = 10 - Point Hit, Bankroll = $74
Bet $10 - Roll 9 = 5 - Lay Odds, Bankroll = $4
Roll 11 = 5, Point Hit, Bankroll = $4
Bust out on Roll 12 (Bankroll < $10)

This is a roll-by-roll detail of the final example of the 10 above.

Weird, eh?

ETA - I found my errors. I was paying out on a Come Out 12 instead of pushing, and collecting my DP bet twice when ever an Off roll hit 7. My results are much more realistic now.
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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February 19th, 2014 at 5:55:51 PM permalink
Quote: TerribleTom

Set up the same variables in WinCraps and you bust out every time. Best I've seen on a $200 bankroll is $700-something, it certainly never gets anywhere near $10K.

you will bust out every time no matter the starting bankroll, sometimes it takes a long time but it will happen.
Nice you found your Excel errors

I have seen sims starting at $100 and $200 go well over $10k before eventual ruin
especially taking and laying 3X or higher odds.

It is the nature of the game to finally bust a bankroll when playing against a house edge.

I just ran 1000 sims of your method and here are the high bankrolls hit before ruin
11 sessions went over 10k and the highest was $59,819 just from a $200 starting bankroll.
I doubled your DPass from $10 to $20 once over $1k
over 469,000 rolls were required before the highest finally ruined.
25 sessions hit $5k or higher
71 hit $2k or higher
174 hit $1k or higher (this sounds right as I ran a 10k sim earlier on your method of play hit $1k over 18% of the simulated sessions)

The median highest bankroll before ruin was $370
that sounds about right

I also ran your system against the 35k Zumma dice rolls (real casino rolls)
the 28 sessions resulted in a highest bankroll of $4,284
7 sessions saw at least a $1k bankroll high before ruin

cool to get high from just $200
have fun!
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
TerribleTom
TerribleTom
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February 19th, 2014 at 8:39:39 PM permalink
Wow. Thanks for the data!
CrapsGenious
CrapsGenious
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February 19th, 2014 at 8:40:30 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

you will bust out every time no matter the starting bankroll, sometimes it takes a long time but it will happen.
Nice you found your Excel errors

I have seen sims starting at $100 and $200 go well over $10k before eventual ruin
especially taking and laying 3X or higher odds.

It is the nature of the game to finally bust a bankroll when playing against a house edge.

I just ran 1000 sims of your method and here are the high bankrolls hit before ruin
11 sessions went over 10k and the highest was $59,819 just from a $200 starting bankroll.
I doubled your DPass from $10 to $20 once over $1k
over 469,000 rolls were required before the highest finally ruined.
25 sessions hit $5k or higher
71 hit $2k or higher
174 hit $1k or higher (this sounds right as I ran a 10k sim earlier on your method of play hit $1k over 18% of the simulated sessions)

The median highest bankroll before ruin was $370
that sounds about right

I also ran your system against the 35k Zumma dice rolls (real casino rolls)
the 28 sessions resulted in a highest bankroll of $4,284
7 sessions saw at least a $1k bankroll high before ruin

cool to get high from just $200
have fun!
Sally



I just posted what i witnessed at casino tonight. Darkside shooter went down 20k after just 3 points were made from one shooter in just under 20 minutes. Darkside shooter eventually caught up after getting another 10k mark but man, what a grind. I would not recommend you trying this system of yours at a live casino, I've also ran many sims and my results are also not pleasant.

scrap your darkside idea and take your girlfriend to the movies instead.
8 more years till retirement.
RS
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
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February 19th, 2014 at 10:03:42 PM permalink
Doesn't ANYONE going to mention the fact he's looking for 1000-1000000 rolls on a $200 BR but is betting about 1/4 of his br at a time? ???????

After 1k rolls you will have $0.
After 10k rolls you will have $0.
After 100k or 1m rolls you will have $0.
TerribleTom
TerribleTom
Joined: Feb 18, 2014
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February 19th, 2014 at 10:50:20 PM permalink
Quote: RS

Doesn't ANYONE going to mention the fact he's looking for 1000-1000000 rolls on a $200 BR but is betting about 1/4 of his br at a time? ???????

After 1k rolls you will have $0.
After 10k rolls you will have $0.
After 100k or 1m rolls you will have $0.



In practice, sometimes you'll have $0 after a dozen rolls.

And sometimes you'll have tripled your money in less than 100 rolls.

I realize that over the long run the house always wins.
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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February 19th, 2014 at 10:52:29 PM permalink
Quote: RS

Doesn't ANYONE going to mention the fact he's looking for 1000-1000000 rolls on a $200 BR but is betting about 1/4 of his br at a time? ???????

After 1k rolls you will have $0.
After 10k rolls you will have $0.
After 100k or 1m rolls you will have $0.

betting 1/4 of the bankroll is betting BOLD. win big or go home. maybe more fun for him.
HE should be able to get that data or any other data (using Excel and WinCraps)
himself and wonder why you posted your last 3 statements.

The first 2 are 100% incorrect.
After 1k rolls you will have $0. <<<<<< "WRONG"
After 10k rolls you will have $0. <<<<<< "WRONG"

unless you have some data showing they are 100% correct.

The part statement about 100k rolls is also 100% incorrect.
After 100k ... rolls you will have $0. <<<<<< "WRONG"

the 1 million roll part may be 100% correct. waiting on the sim to finish
I only found 100k players to do this for a max 1 million rolls
Bankroll was busted . . = 100.000% of the time ( 100000)
Bankroll decreased . . = 100.000% of the time
Bankroll increased . . = 0.000% of the time


simulating dice rolls and actual casino dice rolls (I keep these to myself)
here are my results
for 1000 dice rolls and still going...
Bankroll was busted . . = 31.421% of the time ( 314206)
Bankroll decreased . . = 60.778% of the time
Bankroll increased . . = 37.111% of the time

for 10k dice rolls and still going...
Bankroll was busted . . = 87.630% of the time ( 87630)
Bankroll decreased . . = 89.184% of the time
Bankroll increased . . = 10.687% of the time <<<<< Yahoo!

for 100k dice rolls and a lucky 114 out of 100k players (skilled) few are STILL going...
and some are STILL winning!
winning IS fun!
Bankroll was busted . . = 99.886% of the time ( 99886)
Bankroll decreased . . = 99.893% of the time
Bankroll increased . . = 0.106% of the time <<<<< Yahoo! Jackpot!

nice try <<<<<< "WRONG"

Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
TerribleTom
TerribleTom
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February 19th, 2014 at 10:52:53 PM permalink
Quote: CrapsGenious

I just posted what i witnessed at casino tonight. Darkside shooter went down 20k after just 3 points were made from one shooter in just under 20 minutes. Darkside shooter eventually caught up after getting another 10k mark but man, what a grind. I would not recommend you trying this system of yours at a live casino, I've also ran many sims and my results are also not pleasant.

scrap your darkside idea and take your girlfriend to the movies instead.



Show me a Sim that's not unpleasant in the end and we'll talk.

I'm just looking for a good time, not to replace my day job with the craps table.
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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February 19th, 2014 at 10:57:16 PM permalink
Quote: TerribleTom

In practice, sometimes you'll have $0 after a dozen rolls.

And sometimes you'll have tripled your money in less than 100 rolls.

I realize that over the long run the house always wins.

It can happen fast or extend over thousands of rolls, a simple $200 buy-in
all because of the odds bet
adds a lot of variance.
expecting wild bankroll swings ahead

have no fear

have fun
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart

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