AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
  • Threads: 109
  • Posts: 3740
December 14th, 2013 at 4:11:23 PM permalink
I just want to post a follow up. yesteday I took a drive to a casino just to play some craps for a couple of hours. I used the "pass line only / fire bet" strategy. No one made more than four passes (but three passes on the 6 so no fire bet) so I lost my original $200 buy in for passline and fire bets. The difference is that the other 8 guys at the table lost $500 to $1500 doing their place bets and come bets with odds and pass line bets with odds.

The more I think about it, I like the concept that you should play craps "one game at a time" meaning one number vs the 7 whether it's a place 6 or a place 8 or just the passline.

I plan to be in LV for New Year's and this is exactly what I am going to be doing -- especially because I expect all of the table limits to be jacked up because of the crowds.
TheWolf713
TheWolf713
Joined: Feb 12, 2013
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 315
December 14th, 2013 at 5:42:25 PM permalink
@Alan

I've got a fun betfor you... You can play the don't pass and the fire bet at the same time... And after the point is established you can pull the fire bet up (or leave it...). And your fire bet will still be valid... It's like swinging for the fence at minimal costs.
"I'm a DO'er and you my friend, are a Don'ter" -Mark Walberg pain and Gain
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
Joined: Jan 5, 2012
  • Threads: 67
  • Posts: 4299
December 14th, 2013 at 6:10:23 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

I just want to post a follow up. yesteday I took a drive to a casino just to play some craps for a couple of hours. I used the "pass line only / fire bet" strategy. No one made more than four passes (but three passes on the 6 so no fire bet) so I lost my original $200 buy in for passline and fire bets. The difference is that the other 8 guys at the table lost $500 to $1500 doing their place bets and come bets with odds and pass line bets with odds.

The more I think about it, I like the concept that you should play craps "one game at a time" meaning one number vs the 7 whether it's a place 6 or a place 8 or just the passline.

I plan to be in LV for New Year's and this is exactly what I am going to be doing -- especially because I expect all of the table limits to be jacked up because of the crowds.


All you're doing is limiting your exposure...bet less money and you'll lose less money. Pretty basic.

Me, I'll stick to odds and come bets. I need more action, and I definitely don't need the high edge on the fire bet.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
  • Threads: 151
  • Posts: 19526
December 14th, 2013 at 7:40:08 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

this is an excellent question and comes down to this:

Do the odds bets help you win? And the answer is no.

Craps is a negative expectation game and so no betting system or scheme will help you win. Having odds will help you win more when the numbers come your way -- but betting odds will not make the numbers come your way.

My goal was to be at the table to catch lightning at the lowest possible cost.

Now, had I been betting "big" when those two five-point fire bets hit I would have won a lot more money. the player to my right started with $130 across plus full odds, and when the shooter 7nd out with the 5 point fire bet he had won about $5,000. He did not make a fire bet. He also had about $1,000 on the table which gave him a net win of about $4,000. Not bad.

I started with an initial bet of $40 and finished both of those five-point fire bet hands with at least $2700. And that made me perfectly happy to win so much with so little to lose.

What's also curious is that by also making just a passline bet, I sometimes had a profit on shooters who only made two passes. But at the same time there were high rollers who lost hundreds and hundreds of dollars because when the shooter sevened-out they had lots of bets on the table.

Are you interested in selling them for a discount?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
  • Threads: 109
  • Posts: 3740
December 15th, 2013 at 8:38:23 AM permalink
Axel here's another option: After you make your initial pass or DP bet + the fire bet, you are not obligated to make any additional bets. The fire bet stays until the shooter's turn is over.

So consider this scenario at a $10 table:

$10 pass, $10 fire bet.
Shooter rolls a come-out winner -- pass line is paid $10.
You take the pass line payoff and remove your passline bet.
Your fire bet stays in action and you have recouped your cost.

How do you figure the "value" of the fire bet now?
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
  • Threads: 68
  • Posts: 11933
December 15th, 2013 at 8:48:36 AM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
  • Threads: 151
  • Posts: 19526
December 15th, 2013 at 8:58:02 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Axel here's another option: After you make your initial pass or DP bet + the fire bet, you are not obligated to make any additional bets. The fire bet stays until the shooter's turn is over.

So consider this scenario at a $10 table:

$10 pass, $10 fire bet.
Shooter rolls a come-out winner -- pass line is paid $10.
You take the pass line payoff and remove your passline bet.
Your fire bet stays in action and you have recouped your cost.

How do you figure the "value" of the fire bet now?

Sounds Great. I don't play craps often, unless they have a promotion or I have some match plays or free bets. I JUST wanted to buy your GAS card's :) Are you interested in selling them(them=gas cards) for a discount?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
  • Threads: 109
  • Posts: 3740
December 19th, 2013 at 11:05:05 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Are you playing for a push, or to win money?



Great question... and here's a simple answer: craps is a negative expectation game, so you are destined to lose.

So I have a different question:

Would you like to limit your losses but give yourself a chance at a big win?
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
  • Threads: 109
  • Posts: 3740
December 19th, 2013 at 11:07:41 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I JUST wanted to buy your GAS card's :) Are you interested in selling them(them=gas cards) for a discount?



I spend about $3,000 a year in gas, sometimes more, driving just for my business, so I will be using them. :-)
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
  • Threads: 68
  • Posts: 11933
December 20th, 2013 at 9:31:45 AM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!

  • Jump to: