What constitutes AP Craps play?
Quote: Dicenor33Lab available, good for testing your shot. Lab equipped with dynamometer , spectrophotometer, etc
Is there a sphincterometer?
Those DIs gotta quantify their theories, dontcha know.
You screwball, you may as well be a politician, everything that comes out of your mouth, or
in this case your computer is a lie.
"Here's the post in question. Maybe 7craps or another sharp math guy can come up with a suggestion for what are the chances that these are the results of actual craps throws in a casino environment." If your going to lie you need to be a little smarter than this.
As i indicated these were my practice rolls at home.
Now that it is clear you cant be trusted not to lie, when i get out there for a month or so this winter, and i do play
at Silverton, i wonder if you can look me in the face and tell me i made up these numbers.
It is one thing put people down on here, it is another all together when you have to look people in the eye
and do it.
Now for my part, i am sure you lie, you did right here. So when i get to see you i wont have any trouble looking you in the
eye and say kid your a liar.
Now i understand this is no big deal, if your a liar you already know that, and i know that you know i did not fudge these
numbers, so maybe when i get there you will have the guts to say you were wrong, and maybe even apologize for lying
above.
Guess it all depends on what kind of a guy you really are... but time will tell.
This year i will be there for a month or so, you cant hide forever. Maybe when i get to Silverton i need to ask if it is
ok if i play there, since that is your table.
We all need to have something to look forward to.... i feel like Chris Mathews talking about Obama,,,, i just get a tingle that
runs up and down my leg.
Anyway, my wife says i am enjoying this to much
she could be right
Dicesetter
Who knows you may even come to your senses by then and apologize, and i may even change my mind about you...............
and we can make some money together, but to be honest i dont think you got the guts to say you were wrong..
If you had the ability to analyze what I said, you wouldn't be concluding that I lied. You would be concluding that I made the statement that your roll data is not representative of rolls that would be performed in a casino environment. I stand by that assertion even if your roll data was dropping dice into a sand bucket from half an inch above the sand. That wouldn't make me a liar.
And hell no I'm not apologizing to you, and hell no I don't want to waste my time on you. I am using you as an example of how ridiculously lame the posts are from some of the folks who think they have a shot.
Maybe you can understand the analogy to pointing out how ridiculous it would be to hop all the easy ways for two dollars and all the hard ways for a dollar each and having someone claim that they could win $30 or $31 on every roll. YAAAAAAAYYYYY. If I said as a result of someone's claim that they were winning, "you realize you are losing $4 or $5 on every roll because you are losing 18 bets each time you throw." They might say, "but no I am winning because they paid me and you a liar." I would not say, "yes you are right I am lying." I would say "you don't get it."
That is what I am doing to you: I am putting a spotlight on how ridiculous your posts and the claims in your post are. A very bright spotlight that you cannot simply say that I am lying to defend yourself, your garbage posts still look like garbage even if I said I was lying. It's hardly a defense of anything and just further evidence that you don't understand how your posts are interpreted to be garbage.
You just don't get it. It is sad, but you don't.
I understand, knowing that your wrong is not easy, and accusing some one of lying not once,
but twice when your wrong is even harder.
But take your time. I have gotten a number of emails from members wondering if your going to
admit it.
Dicesetter
Quote:
MathExtremist
Sure, so in 39 rolls you would have made $52 betting the $44 Iron Cross, better than $1.33 per roll. It defies belief that you consistently exert this amount of influence over the dice yet, by your own admission, don't make much money at the craps table. If your talents were legitimate, there would be many people willing to pay your way to Vegas to shoot dice for them.
I just love it when anybody writes that the guy should have made XXX amount of dollars off a roll, and the guy that was shooting didn’t know what he was doing!
Then go on to make a statement like the one below!
Quote:
MathExtremist
If your talents were legitimate, there would be many people willing to pay your way to Vegas to shoot dice for them.
Basically you are calling him a liar, even though you have never met the man. The thing that all you guys that don’t play craps will never get, is that his hands could have been a PSO, then he would have lost XXX amount of dollars.
I can see why aHigh wouldn’t believe dicesitter, because nobody is a better shooter then he is, and everybody that came before him is wrong about dice control.
But after shooting with dicesitter when he was here in Vegas, I can see why the rolls he posted, was rolls that he rolled!
MathExtremist your Iron Cross is just a stupid bet, that most players that use it become just one more loser, for ever short roll or PSO you have it takes about five hits to get your loss back, depending on your bankroll and what you are betting you may not have the funds to use that kind of betting.
The should have, could have, but didn’t, is just BS and I think you know it! Looking at anything that happened on the craps tables after the fact, has nothing to do with what happened. If you didn’t bet the roll you were having you can’t say if I only bet that way, I would have made all that money! I get to hear this from other players that I know all the time. The facts are very simple, when I tell them you didn't and that is all there is to it!
Quote: superrickThe thing that all you guys that don’t play craps will never get, is that his hands could have been a PSO, then he would have lost XXX amount of dollars.
That would be true for a normal shooter, and yes, I agree that for mere mortals the Iron Cross is a terrible bet. However, for someone who only throws a seven one out of every eight rolls, two things are true:
a) Not all of his hands could be PSOs. Not on average, and not if the probability of 7 is only 12.5%. Think about it -- if the probability of 7 is 12.5% *and* each hand is a PSO, then the shooter has to establish a point no more than 12.5% of the time. That means 75% of the rolls are horn numbers and the field has about 100% player edge. And really, if the field is 100% player edge, who cares about the passline?
b) If the probability of seven is only 1 in 8, the Iron Cross is strongly player-favorable. It's also a very low-risk way to increase one's bankroll, even if it's not strictly optimal from an EV standpoint. I've said all along that you need to know more about the altered distribution to compute the edge, but whatever it is, the combined bets in the Iron Cross are favorable in the aggregate if the probability of seven is just 1 in 8.
It is impossible for someone to have a 1 in 8 chance of rolling a seven yet not have a significant expected profit from the table. The Iron Cross is just one way under that scenario. The facts just don't add up if you consider the admission that he doesn't make much money. So either (a) his reported results are inaccurate, or (b) he's making tons of money and isn't admitting it. Which do you think is more plausible?
Quote: MathExtremistThat would be true for a normal shooter, and yes, I agree that for mere mortals the Iron Cross is a terrible bet. However, for someone who only throws a seven one out of every eight rolls, two things are true:
a) Not all of his hands could be PSOs. Not on average, and not if the probability of 7 is only 12.5%. Think about it -- if the probability of 7 is 12.5% *and* each hand is a PSO, then the shooter has to establish a point no more than 12.5% of the time. That means 75% of the rolls are horn numbers and the field has about 100% player edge. And really, if the field is 100% player edge, who cares about the passline?
b) If the probability of seven is only 1 in 8, the Iron Cross is strongly player-favorable. It's also a very low-risk way to increase one's bankroll, even if it's not strictly optimal from an EV standpoint. I've said all along that you need to know more about the altered distribution to compute the edge, but whatever it is, the combined bets in the Iron Cross are favorable in the aggregate if the probability of seven is just 1 in 8.
It is impossible for someone to have a 1 in 8 chance of rolling a seven yet not have a significant expected profit from the table. The Iron Cross is just one way under that scenario. The facts just don't add up if you consider the admission that he doesn't make much money. So either (a) his reported results are inaccurate, or (b) he's making tons of money and isn't admitting it. Which do you think is more plausible?
I got lost on [a] above.
The part about the 7's probability being 12.5% and each hand a pso? Did you mean the 75% probability is a field number or a horn?
Are you saying he should have the iron cross working on the comeout?
Are you familiar with Nathaniel Bowditch and his famous book "The American practical Navigator"?
i am not...I have a very long way to go to do that. And i have had some incredible help
in the past several months to do better, and i am working on that, and i cant tell you or
them how much I appreciate their imput.
My thing with ahigh is ever since i have been on here he has been calling me a liar. I will
address that directly with him.
But think about this, you asked for some data so i went down stairs before dinner and threw
three hands, and you basically called me a liar. Think for one minute, the other day i posted
some hands after Alan started this thread, which was a great thread because Alan was
100% correct.
I indicated some hands and said i did a terrible job by not adjusting quickly or quitting that
evening. I had 3 seven outs in a row, a 2 and 3. Now if i gave a damn about what ahigh
thinks or you for that matter, i sure as hell would not have posted a 1,1,1,3,2 ???????
And for your part to complain about the last three rolls which were ok , and not to consider the
others which were awful indicated poor judgement or an attempt to support Ahigh.
Now i am happy with my throw right now, i dont know how long that will last, but i will continiue
to work on my game with the help of some great players and friends.
dicesetter
I have a 10th grade education. Even I know this silly thing about dice control is shear gambler bullshit. The educated idiots of the world debate the axis of a stupid ass die, which has no memory, bouncing off a back wall. You guys go ahead and waste your time. I'm too busy making a living in gambling to listen to your horseshit about dice control.
If you think that shit works then give up your job and put it all on the line like I do. Fuck the debate. Come on out and play. Give up your day job because of your belief in dice control. You dice controllers make me sick. Don't talk about it. Do it!!!!!!
Prove that you can make a living behind that shit. Anybody can run their mouth. Back it up. Until you can do that you have none of my respect. Name one person, and put up the evidence, who makes a living off of dice control. And this person must have no other income but dice control. Which one of you fellas want to try to jump through that hoop?
Quote: JB85LOL mickey. I went to college and have a nice career so I don't have to gamble for a living. I do it for fun.
Well mickey, I had no idea who you were and what you did when I posted my follow-up above. I have spent the last 2 days reading your "memoirs". Absolutely fascinating. Amazing. I look forward to reading more. If I had known your history I never would have posted that comment so my apologies.
I was caught in a traffic jam this morning and the Casino Boat left without me!
Quote: dicesitterMath it is not a question of if i am making what i think i should make, i have admitted
i am not...I have a very long way to go to do that.
No, you really don't have a long way at all. If you really throw a seven only once in every 8 rolls on average, you should just bet the Iron Cross and you will make plenty of money. Find an empty $5 table and you'll make over $100/hour just using a $44 spread (and a single $5 pass bet). Stick to pass only for other players when they show up. After a short time, you'll be able to step up to $10 tables and $66 or $88, then maybe $25 tables and $110. If you get up to $100 tables and a $440 spread, you'll probably be able to reserve a table to yourself (at a smaller casino) and then you'll be making over $1000 per hour with no other players to interrupt you.
The only risk is if you can't actually do what you claim. Then you'll lose your shirt. But if you can, I've just given you the secret to unlimited wealth. Live long and prosper.
Quote: petroglyphI got lost on [a] above.
The part about the 7's probability being 12.5% and each hand a pso? Did you mean the 75% probability is a field number or a horn?
Are you saying he should have the iron cross working on the comeout?
Are you familiar with Nathaniel Bowditch and his famous book "The American practical Navigator"?
Yes, if I could throw a 7 once only every 8 rolls, I'd bet Iron Cross all the time with a minimum line bet, then gradually increase per Kelly. With the numbers, I was just giving Rick an example of why his logic didn't work -- he was comparing apples to oranges by rejecting the assumption (or assuming a contradictory one). It's not possible to both have such an infrequent 7 and every hand be a PSO. That may happen in the short run, but if the expectation is actually one seven per 8 rolls, the Iron Cross is hugely +EV. See my prior example: it's worth at least $100/hour with solo play and a $44 spread. Probably more because, by yourself, you're never waiting for long payouts, and after a short while the dealers just pay the net win and leave the bets up, such as $4 on a 5 (-$10 from the field but +$14 from the place). You could probably squeeze out $150 or $200/hour at that bet level if you toked the crew enough (to keep the game going and other players away). Again, all this is predicated on having the deity-like ability to throw a 7 with only 12.5% probability.
And no, I'm not familiar with the Bowditch reference. Why?
Quote: dicesitterMath it is not a question of if i am making what i think i should make, i have admitted
i am not...I have a very long way to go to do that. And i have had some incredible help
in the past several months to do better, and i am working on that, and i cant tell you or
them how much I appreciate their imput.
My thing with ahigh is ever since i have been on here he has been calling me a liar. I will
address that directly with him.
But think about this, you asked for some data so i went down stairs before dinner and threw
three hands, and you basically called me a liar. Think for one minute, the other day i posted
some hands after Alan started this thread, which was a great thread because Alan was
100% correct.
I indicated some hands and said i did a terrible job by not adjusting quickly or quitting that
evening. I had 3 seven outs in a row, a 2 and 3. Now if i gave a damn about what ahigh
thinks or you for that matter, i sure as hell would not have posted a 1,1,1,3,2 ???????
And for your part to complain about the last three rolls which were ok , and not to consider the
others which were awful indicated poor judgement or an attempt to support Ahigh.
Now i am happy with my throw right now, i dont know how long that will last, but i will continiue
to work on my game with the help of some great players and friends.
dicesetter
I'm not calling you a liar. I'm merely suggesting that it's possible that you are not accurately representing the truth of things.
There's quite a difference! I don't know if you're lying. It just seems like what you are describing is unlikely, and I'm in a group of skeptics who wishes not to waste my time with the possibility that you are representing what is happening with enough and accurate enough information to contemplate the possibility that you are telling the truth. But you could be. I admit that!
It would be like if you said, "I won $20,000,000 on the lottery today" I might say, that the odds suggest that you didn't do what you said without further evidence. Further evidence would include a news story about your win.
But you could be telling the truth! I admit that it's possible. Just not very probably from the evidence that I have. And I'm not going to spend hours trying to figure out if you're telling the truth if a google search turns up no stories about anyone winning $20,000,000.
And my point in making an example of you is that there are lots more just like you, DS. Plenty!! You have really good company of others making high edge bets making claims that are statistically not very likely about how they play the game in a way that is not congruent with expectations of the math for a bet that carries an 11.11% edge per roll. Folks who are defending you, in fact.
-mr.Ahigh how did you come up with this idea? - I discovered that two words mice and dice sound similar and that is how a new idea was born. After smacking dice with mice we noticed a huge improvement over the past results. Now people can walk into casino with dead mouse in their pocket and win plenty of cash. Thank you,sir.
Quote: bahdbwoywhy not bet with the 6/7/8 and use dice throw skills to avoid a 4/10?
*sigh* The "6/7/8?" Interesting.
Quote: Dicenor33Today's news. Group of leading scientists claims to discover the new way to increase SRR. By smacking pair of dice with experimental mouse the score went up dramatically. Let's ask one of them and in particular mr. Ahigh (PhD in dice management )-
-mr.Ahigh how did you come up with this idea? - I discovered that two words mice and dice sound similar and that is how a new idea was born. After smacking dice with mice we noticed a huge improvement over the past results. Now people can walk into casino with dead mouse in their pocket and win plenty of cash. Thank you,sir.
Today's news: the most ridiculous posts are found on the forum home to the brightest minds because it's okay to post garbage.
320 lay 4, 48 placed 6 & 8
hit 6/7/8 pay 56, 2 hits and leave the casino.. of course 4/4/4 possible but if you can DI easier to a oid 4 than 7?
Quote:
MathExtremist
It is impossible for someone to have a 1 in 8 chance of rolling a seven yet not have a significant expected profit from the table. The Iron Cross is just one way under that scenario. The facts just don't add up if you consider the admission that he doesn't make much money. So either (a) his reported results are inaccurate, or (b) he's making tons of money and isn't admitting it. Which do you think is more plausible?
Now I have to say that this is the best one that you ever wrote, that is the problem with all you math guys, you all think that just because someone has a better SRR then the average roller that we all should be millionaires. You can show everybody with you figures how to exploit what we are doing, but you never take reality into consideration. For you and ever other math guy out there we are all playing craps in the long run, never in the short run.
That is where your math is flawed, anything can and will happen in the short run! Craps players never play in the long run, their time at the tables are made up with many little bits of time, an hour here and there. Some only play a few times a year, while others play all time, that’s if they live in a place where they have casinos, and they don’t have to drive for hours to get to one or worst yet fly across the country to play craps.
While we’re at it, guys like dicesitter are not playing in La, La land, like all of our great fiction writers, he is playing in a small casino market. He knows that the casinos he plays in are not his personal ATM’s, so he plays it smart, and doesn’t try to kill them. There is nothing like getting a tap on the shoulder and a suit telling you that they don’t want your play there any more!
Now, I’m not the only guy that dicesitter has played craps with when he was here the last two times, Petroglyph also spent time with him on the tables. I’m telling you right now that the rolls he gave you were not BS, he has no reason to lie to any one.
There is no such thing as AP craps playing, because any DI will tell you that they can’t have back to back, to back good rolls, and those PSO’s will kill you if you put to much money on the table at one time.
What would you all do if I posted these rolls and told you that I rolled all of them in one session? Here are the rolls fact or fiction, 12, 8, 4, 10, 18, 27, 21, 41, 30, 9, 39, 40, 5, 6, 45, 32, 32! These were all done in a few hours time, without taking a break!
...
Quote: superrickQuote:
MathExtremist
It is impossible for someone to have a 1 in 8 chance of rolling a seven yet not have a significant expected profit from the table. The Iron Cross is just one way under that scenario. The facts just don't add up if you consider the admission that he doesn't make much money. So either (a) his reported results are inaccurate, or (b) he's making tons of money and isn't admitting it. Which do you think is more plausible?
Now I have to say that this is the best one that you ever wrote, that is the problem with all you math guys, you all think that just because someone has a better SRR then the average roller that we all should be millionaires. You can show everybody with you figures how to exploit what we are doing, but you never take reality into consideration. For you and ever other math guy out there we are all playing craps in the long run, never in the short run.
I don't think you understood what I wrote, so let me try again. I'm not talking about either the long term or the short term. I'm not even talking about a single roll. I'm talking about expectation, or what you think of as the house edge.
Under the assumption that the dice behave fairly where each face occurs with probability 1/6, the Iron Cross is a house-favorable bet combination with four house-favorable bets.
But under the assumption that the dice behave such that the probability of a total of 7 is only 1/8 instead of the typical 1/6 -- that is, if the player has an RSR of 8 -- then the Iron Cross is a player-favorable bet combination. I can't be more specific without knowing the exact die face probabilities, but there is no possible scenario in which the combination of Field, Place 5, Place 6, and Place 8 is not player-favorable if you assume the probability of 7 is only 1/8. Even though you lose it all when a 7 rolls, that likelihood is now so much smaller than it was that your overall expectation is now positive.
You understand what positive expectation means, right? Imagine you took a white-out marker and put a white spot in the middle of the 2-face and the 4-face on each die, gaffing them and turning them into 3s and 5s, respectively. You now have an enormous edge on the hard 6 and hard 10 bets, as well as the place 6 and place 10 bets. If you make those bets, you'll still lose some of the time, but overall the winnings will more than cover the losses. The Iron Cross with an RSR of 8 is similar. If you make those bets, you'll still lose some of the time, but overall the winnings will more than cover the losses. You have the edge.
So if you're not a millionaire with an RSR of 8, it either means you're not betting properly or you're not betting enough. If you are betting properly, and you are betting enough, failure to make money means you don't have an RSR of 8.
Quote: Ahigh
I would have preferred video in the native format of the camera it was obtained from.
That's what I have available to back up my roll data.
Really? But your dice don't remain on axis.
Quote: superrick
That is where your math is flawed, anything can and will happen in the short run! Craps players never play in the long run, their time at the tables are made up with many little bits of time, an hour here and there. Some only play a few times a year, while others play all time, that’s if they live in a place where they have casinos, and they don’t have to drive for hours to get to one or worst yet fly across the country to play craps.
As soon as someone says 'anything can happen in the short run' it's a sure sign they don't understand the Math they claim is 'wrong'.
The Math models the short run just as sure as the long run. It really does. I've done it, I've plugged in the numbers. I've seen how short sessions (100 rolls, say) can look. The 'non-Math' guys just can't wrap their heads around variance being modelled and understood, used and noted.
If you truly believe 'anything can happen', why track? Why bother thinking about the dice, and what the last 6 rolls were and how the shooter just did? It doesn't matter! Anything can happen! Hooey and Phoeey and Babba-booey to 'anything can happen'. One big fat cheap cop-out.
Quote: thecesspitAs soon as someone says 'anything can happen in the short run' it's a sure sign they don't understand the Math they claim is 'wrong'.
I'd like to say something about this, and I would call it a reality check:
1. math is the math. you can't dispute the math.
2. craps is not a game where the math actually applies. now before you jump up and down -- yes, the math applies to bets and payoffs, but that's the end of it. If you have statistics that show the average shooter does this, or the mean amount won is that, or your expected win after XXX rolls is this... it doesn't matter. It will not apply to you.
3. The game of craps is literally played one roll at a time. Your SRR or RSR or practice at home, or history of previous rolls, or your wildest dreams don't matter. The only thing that matters is your next roll of the dice.
So, superrick is absolutely correct when he says "anything can happen in the short run" and that is why I look at these run-on discussions about the past as being absolutely meaningless.
It doesn't matter what happened at Waterloo or Pearl Harbor or at the Silverton or on your home table. The only thing that matters is what happens on the next throw of the dice.
You can think you have expert control, and perfect form, and videos that prove it... and you can have great results at home or even from your last "hand" at a casino... but it doesn't matter at all when you throw the dice the very next time.
So I would like to return to a familiar theme of mine: trying to influence or control the dice does not hurt anyone. It might not help you, but it can't hurt you (unless of course you are doing something that violates the law such as tampering with the dice with glue, etc.)
All of these discussions and debates about odds and expectation and what happened before don't mean a thing on your next roll.... unless you happen to be a machine. Why a machine? Because if you designed a machine to roll only hard-6 and on the next roll it is not a hard-6 you would have reason to inspect the machine for some kind of mechanical error.
Is any one of you a machine?
Now back to our regular program....
Quote: thecesspitAs soon as someone says 'anything can happen in the short run' it's a sure sign they don't understand the Math they claim is 'wrong'.
The best way to point out short run and long run
to people is, tell them to visualize a line of outcomes
100 feet long. Then ask to them point out what part of
that is the short run. They can't do it, it's obvious
every outcome is part of the long run.
I would not have taken a break either.
That was some good shooting.
Dicesetter
Quote:AlanMendelson
1. math is the math. you can't dispute the math.
2. craps is not a game where the math actually applies. now before you jump up and down -- yes, the math applies to bets and payoffs, but that's the end of it. If you have statistics that show the average shooter does this, or the mean amount won is that, or your expected win after XXX rolls is this... it doesn't matter. It will not apply to you.
3. The game of craps is literally played one roll at a time. Your SRR or RSR or practice at home, or history of previous rolls, or your wildest dreams don't matter. The only thing that matters is your next roll of the dice.
So, superrick is absolutely correct when he says "anything can happen in the short run" and that is why I look at these run-on discussions about the past as being absolutely meaningless.
It doesn't matter what happened at Waterloo or Pearl Harbor or at the Silverton or on your home table. The only thing that matters is what happens on the next throw of the dice.
You can think you have expert control, and perfect form, and videos that prove it... and you can have great results at home or even from your last "hand" at a casino... but it doesn't matter at all when you throw the dice the very next time.
Alan, thanks for making my point. The other way of looking at playing craps is what separates the 154 roll from the 8 roll, anybody should be able to see that it’s just that one 7. It could come at the 8th roll of the dice or the 154th roll of the dice! I always say my best looking shot was a 7 out, and it did matter where it came,… it ended my roll.
I have a standing argument with my shooting partner, about practicing before we hit the casinos, he always wants to practice, and I say it does no good, because even though we have two real tables to practice on with different characteristics on the different tables, it just doesn’t matter. When you get to the casino we are going to play in, we can’t bring in our own dice, and we can’t tell everybody to get off the table!
We are not perfect, like everybody here on this board thinks a DI is, I’m telling it like it is, and everybody that knows me calls me a DI, I can’t win every time I go to a casino, there are more factors then just shooting, that allows you to win or lose! I find it down right funny that when someone that is a DI, is telling you that DI’s can’t win every time they go into a casino, members of this board has a problem believing that. Now it should be the other way around, remember I’m not trying to sell you a class, nor am I telling you that I’m the best shooter there is and that I’ve never seen a DI, and I’m out to prove that there are DI’s, out there,.. if I can only get one of them to take my challenge, by goating someone into it!
If you guys still don’t get it, we can always put it one more way. The short run is when you run out of money and the casino has unlimited funds, to put back on the table, you my friend don’t have the funds, and that is always going to be the short run!
...
So why not try? And why criticize someone who does try?
Just don't tell me that if I pay you $$$ that you can turn me into one of those shooters with "all the influence." Because if I paid you lots of $$$ I couldn't drive a golf ball like Tiger Woods either.
and math are some of the best your going to see on the subject of
craps anywhere.
It is a pleasure to read them.
Dicesetter
Quote: AlanMendelsonI'd like to say something about this, and I would call it a reality check:
1. math is the math. you can't dispute the math.
2. craps is not a game where the math actually applies. now before you jump up and down -- yes, the math applies to bets and payoffs, but that's the end of it. If you have statistics that show the average shooter does this, or the mean amount won is that, or your expected win after XXX rolls is this... it doesn't matter. It will not apply to you.
Yes it will. If you can't understand what the mathematical model of a probability is telling you, that's fine. But you can't dismiss it. Statistics and probability don't deal in definitives. It deals in chance, fuzz and randomness. It shows how these things can happen and the effects. The effects over a very small number are wild and fuzzy. That's fine, that's exactly what the Math tells you if you can read it and understand it. The Math deals in chances, 1 in 36 of rolling box cars.
YOU have to understand and realize what that means (variance, averages, the fuzz). And you can. It's hard and takes time.
Quote:3. The game of craps is literally played one roll at a time. Your SRR or RSR or practice at home, or history of previous rolls, or your wildest dreams don't matter. The only thing that matters is your next roll of the dice.
Your first sentence states the obvious. The second doesn't matter if you think the dice are truly random. The third is obvious based on the first statement. With wild pronouncements like that....
IF you can exert bias on the dice (hahahaha) and you understand what bias actually means (seems many people don't) then the middle statement is actually important. But if you reject that bias is possible, you are spot on.
Quote:
So, superrick is absolutely correct when he says "anything can happen in the short run" and that is why I look at these run-on discussions about the past as being absolutely meaningless.
Course he's right. But it's a meaningless statement in reply to a Mathematical analysis.
Quote:All of these discussions and debates about odds and expectation and what happened before don't mean a thing on your next roll.... unless you happen to be a machine. Why a machine? Because if you designed a machine to roll only hard-6 and on the next roll it is not a hard-6 you would have reason to inspect the machine for some kind of mechanical error.
Unproven. I am highly unconvinced that a mechanical machine would result in deterministic dice rolls. The universe isn't deterministic enough, and I suspect the low scale random effects of the machine, the surface thrown on and the interactions are enough to mean that the dice wouldn't act deterministically. So I wouldn't be looking for a machine.
I do think it's possible that someone could show bias. I'd be surprised, I'd be very curious to see it and highly skeptical, but I don't think it's truly impossible. The number of rolls to show that bias would be large, so I doubt anyone has the patience to prove it to an audience. Far better time spent proving it to a casino table. Cos' as ME says, with the right information about your bias, you should make a tidy profit over that period of time.
Quote: dicesitterSome of these last few posts by folks like Alan and Superrick and math are some of the best your going to see on the subject of craps anywhere.
Posts and math both huh? You are so succinct in your posts. It's like reading fine poetry. "Your" a literary genius. Therefore your analysis of others writings are so welcome as we don't have the mental capacity to make up our own minds. Thanks for informing us how great these posts are, professor.
Quote: AhighPosts and math both huh? You are so succinct in your posts. It's like reading fine poetry. "Your" a literary genius. Therefore your analysis of others writings are so welcome as we don't have the mental capacity to make up our own minds. Thanks for informing us how great these posts are, professor.
I copied your post to "preserve it."
What do you mean by the phrase "posts and math both huh?"
Why must you attack him? What prompted your attack?
Quote: AlanMendelsonI copied your post to "preserve it."
What do you mean by the phrase "posts and math both huh?"
Why must you attack him? What prompted your attack?
Ahigh, I thought dicesitter was talking about MathExtremist, but just in case I'm incorrect it was special of you to make your point in such a venomous way.
I prefer Alan's response much better.
It's convenient to be able to just come to one site and get a craps lesson and an English class all at the same time.
typo sight/site thanks
Quote: petroglyph
It's convenient to be able to just come to one sight and get a craps lesson and an English class all at the same time.
Site.
Ummm English Lesson!
19 September 2012 (from CasinoCityTimes.com)
By Frank Scoblete
You hear players at the tables and you read "experts" on the web and in books and magazines all the time:
"I just saw five fives in a row! I'm jumping on that five right now!"
"The 12 just showed three times; it's hot. I'm jumping on that 12 right now."
"My Lord, the 11 just hit six times in a row. I'm getting on it right now!"
Sounds logical doesn't it? As logical as the earth is flat and that it is also the center of the universe - all wrong ideas in light of true knowledge.
The short term fluctuations in numbers appearing in a random game of craps have no impact on the future appearances of these numbers. Let me take this to absurdity then --- "I just saw the two hit four hundred times in a row! I'm getting on it right now."
That's the equivalent of saying, "I've been to four hundred places on earth and everything I have seen tells me the world is flat!"
In a RANDOM game, the appearance of all those twos is meaningless, totally meaningless for your future prospects should you start betting that number. The numbers at craps, given time, will reflect what probability is for those numbers. That is a fact. You can't look back over the last 10, 20, 80, 200 rolls and think you can now make predictions on the next 10, 20, 80 and 200 rolls.
After four hundred hits of the two, the likelihood of the two coming up 401 times is one in 36. Those last 400 rolls mean nothing.
So why does it feel, appear, and logically tug at our intellects to impose the concept of a “short term order” that can predict the next batch of short term orders? Because we are creatures that inherently, intuitively look for order, patterns, meanings in everything we do.
If you are religious and you did something wrong and then fell down a flight of stairs, an old-world view would sound like this: "God just punished you for doing something bad!" That flawed way of thinking dropped out of our thinking (to a degree) after the Book of Job showed that bad things can happen to good people. Thus, there is not necessarily any meaning to short-run bad luck.
Check out the major league baseball batters who wash their hands in dirt, interminably spit, grab their crotches, make the sign of the cross, look to the heavens when they hit a home run, eat the same breakfast every day before they have a game. Do any of these things have any real meaning? No they don't. But the players think they do because somewhere in the past, after washing his hands in dirt for the first time, the kid hit a home run. Or he spit a gob of phlegm out of his young mouth and hit a home run.
Mentally this might mean something to the player, but I can grab my crotch all I like but I am not going to hit home runs in the major leagues. Crotch grabbing really has nothing to do with the actual results even though the player's mental makeup gives credence to crotchiness.
The key to understanding how to bet at a random game of craps is to realize that all past decisions are meaningless. You are better off not knowing what these decisions were than seeing them and projecting them into the future.
Do not let your short-range pattern-finding natures blind you to the light of knowledge. In a random game, the short-term of the past is no indicator of the long-run future. If you believe it is, the world is flat and is positioned at the center of the universe.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Let me put this another way:
In a random game, the short run IS the long run. If you had to bet for everyone playing craps all over the world today how would you structure your bets? Hey, they are all playing in the short run as individuals but there are millions of them in toto. You'd use the math to figure what the best bets would be and that's how you'd bet for each and every one of them. So why would you disgard the math when betting at the table you personally were on? Makes no sense. You must use the long-run math to structure your short-run betting. There is no other choice that makes sense.
What the heck is a "dice controller" doing talking about random numbers? "Random" is everything you believe you can alter in the game of craps.
Quote: FrankScobleteMost of my readers --- like 99.999 percent --- are not interested in dice control or card counting or advantage video poker. Other than the dice control controversy (it isn't controversial to me), I am a stick-in-the-mud follow-the-math type of person. I also look to limit betting at random games while still getting the most fun out of them.
Okay I accept that. So.... was the "Captain" just a random thrower and was the "rhythm" just another name for a random throw? Or did he have "control"?
No one is allowed to do so with employing attributive adjectives, a specialty of some posters here, or correct formation of participles. Not to mention dangling modifiers and split infinitives.Quote: AhighPosts and math both huh? You are so succinct in your posts. It's like reading fine poetry. "Your" a literary genius. Therefore your analysis of others writings are so welcome as we don't have the mental capacity to make up our own minds. Thanks for informing us how great these posts are, professor.
So go off somewhere and drink to their memory in copious quantity. Copious enough to stop posting the same thing here over and over again.Quote: FrankScobleteThe Captain was a great shooter. But the Arm was the best. She had an eccentric throw. Jimmy P., the third member of their group, was a decent thrower.
Quote: FrankScobleteThe Short Run In A Long Run Universe
19 September 2012 (from CasinoCityTimes.com)
By Frank Scoblete
...
Check out the major league baseball batters who wash their hands in dirt, interminably spit, grab their crotches, make the sign of the cross, look to the heavens when they hit a home run, eat the same breakfast every day before they have a game. Do any of these things have any real meaning? No they don't. But the players think they do because somewhere in the past, after washing his hands in dirt for the first time, the kid hit a home run. Or he spit a gob of phlegm out of his young mouth and hit a home run...
Frank,
You need to pick some better examples for your attempt to point out pointless activity that a person uses to affect an outcome.
A batter is not 'washing' his hands in the dirt because it worked in the past. The batter is getting dirt on his hands to provide friction on the bat handle, so he can grip the bat with less tension in his hands. Tension in your hands robs you of fast twitch muscle response, which in turn slows down your bat speed.
Batters grab their crotches because they are wearing a hard plastic cup in a spot that gets mighty uncomfortable when it gets in the wrong position. And they are about to have some guy 66' away throw a very hard projectile at them at 90 MPH. The last thing they want to be doing is thinking about how that piece of plastic is scrunched against twin #1.
To those that are religious, both looking to the heavens and crossing one's self are signs of thanks to their Maker. It helps them control their emotion and metal state, which in turn, improves their ability to focus on the physical task at hand. Those that are not religious will likely not understand the connection.
I concede the spitting and eating the same breakfast probably have no affect, other than again, on the player's mental well being.
Dont worry about ahigh, i dont take him seriously, He knows what i
was saying and he always does.
He cant even stand it when others that do a great job on here get some credit for it.
As far as my typing and sentence structure, hey thats me i think faster than i
can type, ( or i type alot slower than i think" I drive my staff nuts. I actually made the same mistake so many times
that spell check started to accept it as correct.
Now there are not many people that can say that, and fewer that would admit to it.
But anyway, the activity on this thread has been fun, and having Frank on here adds
to the list of of people that really understand craps.
You know if we add Dom, Stickman, Harley, Howard to the guys already here, Ahigh
may even learn something.
What can i say i am an eternal optimist.
Dicesetter
That was a very enjoyable article, as always. You're quickly becoming one of my favorite authors. In terms of, "Fact-checking," I concur with all of RaleighCraps' points, especially from having played baseball, but I think that anyone who didn't ever really play baseball will overlook these oversights...and certainly even people who have played baseball understand the overall message you're attempting to convey.
If nothing else, you could re-write it to incorporate other meaningless superstitions often followed in baseball, here are a few to start:
1.) Going up to bat, a batter will often tap his bat against home plate or the ground a fixed number of times.
2.) The re-wearing of clothing/accessories without washing after a win.
3.) Not speaking to a pitcher if he has a perfect game going, some might argue this helps him focus, but others could argue that he focuses too intently and cannot possibly be pitching loosely at that point.
Quote: FrankScobleteThe Captain was a great shooter. But the Arm was the best. She had an eccentric throw. Jimmy P., the third member of their group, was a decent thrower.
But the question is: were they random or controlled shooters?
