True odds question

Quote: DeMango

Let's not forget the human factor, that if this truely happened, the dealers, the casino, and then the media would have shouted this out from the rooftops. Similar to the argument against The Captain's roll. It didn't happen. No fabrication by the Mission, on a mission, can change the odds to help out our friend in LA.

Please explain what you mean by, "Fabrication." Are you suggesting that I am lying about the results of the WoO game? I assume that there is some kind of log file that could be verified, which is why I gave the time as exactly as I remembered it. I believe I checked it on the next to last roll of that set, because I knew things were looking really good.

Quote: Mission146

That's all irrelevant, I don't need to duplicate those exact rolls as they have already happened. I'll tell you what I can do, I can use the simulator and achieve another result more unlikely than 18 Yo's in a row, only now I would bet that I can do it within six hours.

The only relevant thing is whether or not 18 Yo's in a row is possible, I maintain that it is. You are now asking me to reproduce the results, "On demand," which again, is totally different than my claim or the claim by AlanMendelson.

I've already stated that it is possible because the odds are non-zero.

But for a gambling forum your lack of understanding of the meaning of odds and how they apply to this discussion is truly surprising. Odds can never be about the past, the odds of past events are 1. Odds require a proposition about the future. Any 18 rolls can define the proposition. The odds express the chance that you can, starting right now, reproduce exactly those same 18 rolls.

In the case of the Yos, stating someone can make 18 Yos in a row is the proposition. The odds against it are so shockingly long that it strains the bounds of credibility to say it happened. If you had said beforehand, "I will now roll this exact sequence of 18 numbers" and then claimed you'd done it, without providing any proof other than saying it happened, then you too would be straining the bounds of credibility.

The question here should be for all the guys that play craps all the time to tell everybody what was the most 11's they have ever thrown on a craps table playing in a casino. How about any of you guys that track the tables, what is the most 11's that you have ever seen in real play?

Quote: cowboy

Odds can never be about the past, the odds of past events are 1.

Now I'm totally confused.

So the odds of 18 Yos in a row are now 1?

Isn't this whole convo about the odds of something that happened in the past?

IF it happened, the odds are 1.

Suppose you win a 200 million to 1 lottery. If you produce the winning ticket, then yes indeed you won and the odds were 1. If you tell me you won and can't produce the ticket, then I have difficulty believing you.

You guys have really gone off on a tangent here.

First, I told you I was at a table where a random shooter threw 18 yos in a row. it can happen and it did. The odds of it happening are, as you point out, a gazillion to one. But it still happened. Can it happen again? Well, the odds of it happening are, as you point out, a gazillion to one. But that doesn't mean it didn't happen.

Now, you can choose to believe me or not. I don't care. One reason that I don't care is that I didn't make any money from this one in a gazillion event so I don't have to prove to you or to the IRS that I won the money from 18 yos in a row and not from a drug deal because there is no money.

I am not saying it will ever happen again, and I'm only saying I was there when it did happen. That should really be the end of it. You see, no one is disputing any of the math that tells us how rare an event it was. Yes it was a rare event, but it happened.

Had I known the strings of Yos would continue I would have quickly thrown five dollars cash onto the table and called out "yo" for the next roll. But since we all know what a "tough bet" the Yo is, I didn't. Nor did the other two players. It surprised all of us -- the stickman James included who stopped twice during the roll to inspect the dice -- so none of us made the Yo bet.

Things like 18 Yos in a row are not supposed to happen but it happened. The world still survives. The universe did not collapse. A black hole is not heading for Earth (at least I hope not) and life goes on.

Tell me something and be honest, what the F--- is all of this discussion about? I think the fact that I have played craps with Celine's husband three times at Caesars and twice at Bellagio is more interesting than some random shooter who BY SOME STRANGE COINCIDENCE threw 18 yos in a row.

And superrick, my longest string of ANY NUMBER at a craps table has been three in a row. I've thrown every hard way combination one time three-in-a-row including the aces and boxcars. You play enough craps and that will happen, along with all of the soft combinations. I've never had a session where any particular combination came up more than three times in a row.

Noktang can call me a liar if he wants to.

The number is so small it defies description. A previous poster came up with an event with an occurence of 1 in 23 Billion. Just think, that event would have to be repeated One Trillion times to almost equal 18 yo's in a row. Amazing. And no one reported this except one person years later. Until you have "James" testify as well as his crew, I will call bullshit.

Quote: AlanMendelson

I've thrown every hard way combination one time three-in-a-row including the aces and boxcars.

Noktang can call me a liar if he wants to.

I was quite clear, you aren't a liar, you are writing fiction.

Again, above, you say you have thrown all the hard way combinations three in a row. Mission stated the odds of this happening were one in apx 46,000.. So we have you telling us you have done this six(or more times) and not only six but each of the six numbers/hardways(counting aces and boxcars).

A great story but it remains only that.

Not finding the boxing on Thai TV. Wanted to watch it. Such a pity.

Ive been playing craps for more than 20 years. I certainly have thrown, over those twenty years, boxcars three times in a row, as I have thrown aces three times in a row, and a hard 6 three times in a row, and so on.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Ive been playing craps for more than 20 years. I certainly have thrown, over those twenty years, boxcars three times in a row, as I have thrown aces three times in a row, and a hard 6 three times in a row, and so on.

We all would think that is so, however, the numbers/math tell us different. Like you, I've played for many years and would like to think I've done this or that but in reality, I ain't done shit except lose money.

Quote: NokTang

We all would think that is so, however, the numbers/math tell us different. Like you, I've played for many years and would like to think I've done this or that but in reality, I ain't done shit except lose money.

Well we have something in common. I've also lost money. But it doesn't mean I haven't thrown each of the hard ways and various soft ways three times in a row during my lifetime playing craps. Losing money does not mean you didn't throw all of the hardways, for example, three times in a row. I am not a hardways bettor so I can't report any big parlays to you. But that doesn't rule out that I threw each of the hardways three times in a row at some point over 20 years of playing craps.

Quote: AlanMendelson

I've thrown every hard way combination one time three-in-a-row including the aces and boxcars.

Noktang can call me a liar if he wants to.

Quote: NokTang

We all would think that is so, however, the numbers/math tell us different. Like you, I've played for many years and would like to think I've done this or that but in reality, I ain't done shit except lose money.

It's not uncommon to see someone throw a hardway three times in a row! I have even pointed that out to Ahigh. The same goes for any of the combinations that you can have on the dice.
I've seen 5 hard 8's in a row before the same goes for the 12. But once you get over that threshold you can forget about it.

I am going through all the rolls in the book “Craps a smart shooters guide” by Thomas Midgley that he has in his book, to see if there are any rolls that had numbers that were made in a row. Now I find it quite boring to do so,..so it will take me a few days to get the job done. But I can tell you this, I do see those kind of rolls happening quite often.

...

Once you tell (write) one "Whopper", and get caught, everything you say or write becomes suspect, including 3 hardways in a row, which I don't have a problem with.

Quote: DeMango

Once you tell (write) one "Whopper", and get caught, everything you say or write becomes suspect, including 3 hardways in a row, which I don't have a problem with.

Well DeMango, nobody should have a problem with 3 hardways in a row it happens all the time, even the so-called random rollers do it! What you do not see is a number rolled more then 5 times in a row to often, yes it does happen sometimes. Did you ever see it happen?

Quote: cowboy

But for a gambling forum your lack of understanding of the meaning of odds and how they apply to this discussion is truly surprising. Odds can never be about the past, the odds of past events are 1. Odds require a proposition about the future. Any 18 rolls can define the proposition. The odds express the chance that you can, starting right now, reproduce exactly those same 18 rolls.

In the case of the Yos, stating someone can make 18 Yos in a row is the proposition. The odds against it are so shockingly long that it strains the bounds of credibility to say it happened. If you had said beforehand, "I will now roll this exact sequence of 18 numbers" and then claimed you'd done it, without providing any proof other than saying it happened, then you too would be straining the bounds of credibility.

We're talking past each other, unfortunately.

I understand the odds behind rolling eighteen Yo's in a row, it's a really simple calculation. I agree and maintain that I will probably never see eighteen Yo's in a row, nor will anyone else on this Forum, nor their children or grand-children, in all likelihood.

Once again, the question is simply one of whether or not it is, "Possible." Your final statement again alludes to producing results, "On demand," nobody is suggesting that.

Now, with respect to AlanMendelson's claim, you'll notice that I have not argued anything besides it is not, "Impossible." I have ignored every other basis and argument for challenging the claim, because I was not there, and therefore, have no idea. I just cannot accept, "Impossible," as an argument, though. I'm not going to accept that, because it is possible. Anyone who says it is absolutely impossible, I suggest, may be ignoring the Odds, because the Odds are a non-zero.

This is one of those threads that is a train wreck yet I have read it daily.

One member tells a story of 18 yo's in a row. I know...nearly impossible. The trouble is that the dice don't know that it is nearly impossible and they land randomly each time. They could be yo's as well as any other possible number every time.

Other members don't believe the poster and call him a liar and nogoodsonofagun and all kinds of other things without really using a personal insult. They never really prove it is impossible yet they state that it is such.

Then they challenge the fact that the poster once tossed three hardways in a row...something that happens all the time. I've seen three of a lot of things in a row--last week, it was 9's (5/4)--so why challenge him on that?

I asked earlier--is the poster of the story know as a liar or a cheat? Does he often post tall tales? What is it that has everyone so uptight about 18 of something in a row?

It is possible. You don't believe him. That about sums it up...

Quote: Face

I remember a Fermi discussion here back 2 or 3 years ago when I was mostly a lurker; I won't rehash it here and continue the derail. I just wanted to point out (which I couldn't without using god stuff) that I find myself to be surrounded by things so random that 18 Yos looks as easy as sinking a 2 ft putt in comparison.

I do agree it's more likely Alan remember wrong. And no disrespect to Alan, but just because of the numbers involved, it probably is more likely somebody slipped him a mickey or he dreamed the whole thing. (It's probably even more likely that I've dreamt this whole conversation up, it's that unbelievable). But that being said, it's not impossible, and I wouldn't have raked him over the coals so harshly.

And off topic, but about talking to you in 1,000 years...

I dunno how much internet compliments from strangers please you, but if there should be an afterlife, I'd surely not mind having a palaver with you for a few eternities. Your thoughts often strike a chord in my mind and I enjoy discussions in which you take part =)

I absolutely appreciate the compliments, thanks. As to palavering, there may be an opportunity to have a conversation in this lifetime -- and more than an idle one at that -- but not for another month or so.

I made an Ask the Wizard question about the 18 consecutive yo's, to help the legend live on.

Ask the Wizard #362.

Quote: Wizard

I made an Ask the Wizard question about the 18 consecutive yo's, to help the legend live on.

Ask the Wizard #362.
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Let's try conceivable casino conditions, where 100 rolls per hour is expected I believe

you got @4*10^22 ... if you could maintain 100 rolls per hour, 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, for the age of the universe ...

100*24*365*13,800,000,000=12 088 800 000 000 000 .... 10^16 so not there yet

so you'd need roughly 10^6 craps tables going ... a million craps tables for the age of the universe [if I did that right]

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: Wizard

I made an Ask the Wizard question about the 18 consecutive yo's, to help the legend live on.

Ask the Wizard #362.
link to original post

Let's try conceivable casino conditions, where 100 rolls per hour is expected I believe

you got @4*10^22 ... if you could maintain 100 rolls per hour, 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, for the age of the universe ...

100*24*365*13,800,000,000=12 088 800 000 000 000 .... 10^16 so not there yet

so you'd need roughly 10^6 craps tables going ... a million craps tables for the age of the universe [if I did that right]
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So you are saying that it is possible.

Quote: DRich

So you are saying that it is possible.
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Is this one for Philosophy as much as math?

Say because of alternate universes or whatever, a million craps tables have in fact been going all this time. I believe it is true that it is just as likely 18 YOs in a row occurred the first year or first hour, even, as any other time. The dice have no memory, and don't know to 'wait'.

If that is right, how do you put your head around that?

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: DRich

So you are saying that it is possible.
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Is this one for Philosophy as much as math?
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Hey, it's possible that I'm going to have fagri on a bed of couscous garnished with beurre blanc and capers for dinner tonight.

I think there are several more probable alternative outcomes, however.

Instead of us bringing it up by applying math and getting suspended/nuked, lets just suspend Alan whenever he brings it up and says it happened!

Quote: DeMango

Instead of us bringing it up by applying math and getting suspended/nuked, lets just suspend Alan whenever he brings it up and says it happened!
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I don't think Alan has brought it up for quite a while.

Quote: Dieter

Quote: DeMango

Instead of us bringing it up by applying math and getting suspended/nuked, lets just suspend Alan whenever he brings it up and says it happened!
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I don't think Alan has brought it up for quite a while.
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I think the examples Wiz did and others, says it didn't happen.

Quote: DeMango

Quote: Dieter

Quote: DeMango

Instead of us bringing it up by applying math and getting suspended/nuked, lets just suspend Alan whenever he brings it up and says it happened!
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I don't think Alan has brought it up for quite a while.
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I think the examples Wiz did and others, says it didn't happen.
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Absolutely nothing says it didn't happen. It says that it is unlikely to have happened.

Quote: DRich

Quote: DeMango

Quote: Dieter

Quote: DeMango

Instead of us bringing it up by applying math and getting suspended/nuked, lets just suspend Alan whenever he brings it up and says it happened!
link to original post

I don't think Alan has brought it up for quite a while.
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I think the examples Wiz did and others, says it didn't happen.
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Absolutely nothing says it didn't happen. It says that it is unlikely to have happened.
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We can safely say, based on the numbers, it didn't happen.