True odds question
Quote: AlanMendelsonI have nothing to show for it, nor does anyone else.
Surveillance would have this, and IMHO, kept the tape/CD. Such a rare event has to have a record kept. Just last week I saw a replay of man walking on the moon and I don't go along with those who say it was all staged. Those in disbelief including myself often fail to remember that the last roll of the dice doesn't impact the next roll unless of course you are able to set the dice and get away with it in a place like Caesars, which I doubt.
Quote: NokTangI feel like I'm rich despite only playing green and black chips.
You should feel rich with green and black chips. When I dropped in the other night for a couple of hours of play five of the tables were open and they were all $10 tables.
Quote: AlanMendelsonYou should feel rich with green and black chips. When I dropped in the other night for a couple of hours of play five of the tables were open and they were all $10 tables.
Playing red at Caesars Palace won't or at least didn't, get you RFB. In addition, you look like a cheap charlie to all the hookers and out of place.
Quote: NokTangPlaying red at Caesars Palace won't or at least didn't, get you RFB. In addition, you look like a cheap charlie to all the hookers and out of place.
You can make 7Stars playing $1 video poker.
The problem with table games is that you don't know how you will be rated or if you were rated accurately. When I dropped in the other night I played craps for about an hour and a half... green chips. $130/135 across, full odds. Had a profit of about 600+ and when I spoke to my host the next morning she told me I was rated for an average bet of $39.
I asked my host to speak to the pit about this. My tier score is over 360,000 so far this year so it means nothing to me "tier wise" but it does hurt my base for future offers.
Quote: AlanMendelson
I asked my host to speak to the pit about this..
That will be the day as the saying goes. I seriously doubt they are going to review your play on surveillance and adjust it accordingly. Remember you? Possible, but it would mean your host finding the right floor person who entered the action and a lot of follow up. Since I assume you weren't cheating, I can think of no real reason why they would go through those motions.
That is not always a bad thing, on several counts.Quote: NokTangYou look like a cheap charlie to all the hookers and out of place.
Quote: miplet
18 Yo's in a row: 1 in 39,346,408,075,296,537,575,424 (sorry just 2 zeros).
23 6's in a 26 roll: 1 in about 2,440,927,724,540,810,226,200,469 (5 zeroes)
Thanks for doing the math on this problem, I do appreciate it!
DeMango,.. Not to long ago there was a post that had everybody talking about, a 81 roll. The DI boards went crazy on this post. Just think of all the money that could be made off that roll. My good buddy “The Madprofessor” had a roll that he could sink his teeth into and show the world, how his $204 across would have made everybody money.
It turned out that that roll was in a practice session and the poster forgot to tell everybody that until a few days later. Just goes to show you how things can get blown out of proportion on the internet. The guys that didn't read the retraction about the roll are probably still talking about it, it will go down in the DI history, they will be talking about that roll forever!
I for one would love to see, one of this guys that were so stupid to follow this $204 across betting, that lost their butt, post just how much they lost. For anybody to push a bet like that is just insane, most players would never have the bankroll to even think about trying something like that. The trouble is that when you have post like this 18 Yo's in a row or the 23,..6's in a 26 roll you have guys that think they can win by making stupid bets.
Speaking of the 18 Yo's, what kind of craps players wouldn't throw a $1 on the Yo's after the 5th one in a row? After all it would only be $1 that you would lose if the shooter missed. We all get to see some things that you wouldn't think you would see on a craps table, like 5,..12's in a row. Or maybe 6..8's in a row. Those kind of things do happen on a craps table from time to time.
Big rolls happen everyday in the casinos, and most are by what is called the random rollers, only because they out number the so-called DI's thousands to one, if not tens of thousands to one! Winning money at craps is all about the timing and just being in the right place at the right time! Knowing how to bet the game and when to walk away a winner!
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Quote: NokTangThat will be the day as the saying goes. I seriously doubt they are going to review your play on surveillance and adjust it accordingly. Remember you? Possible, but it would mean your host finding the right floor person who entered the action and a lot of follow up. Since I assume you weren't cheating, I can think of no real reason why they would go through those motions.
It could be a "clerical error." They correctly had me rated for a $600 win at craps. Don't you think a $600 win on a $39 average bet is a little "off"??
Quote: superrickSpeaking of the 18 Yo's, what kind of craps players wouldn't throw a $1 on the Yo's after the 5th one in a row? After all it would only be $1 that you would lose if the shooter missed. We all get to see some things that you wouldn't think you would see on a craps table, like 5,..12's in a row. Or maybe 6..8's in a row. Those kind of things do happen on a craps table from time to time...
Ummm... how about a craps player who does not make middle of the table bets except for a $5 horn high ace deuce to protect his $25 passline bet on the come out?
Or... how about three players at the table who say to themselves...and each other... wow, that was five in a row too bad we missed it! And then... wow, that was ten in a row too bad we missed it! And then... wow 18 in a row too bad we missed it!
Would you like me to tell you the story about the player at my table at Caesars who bet 12 for thirty throws with a green chip each time and never hit? And so he gave up. And then I got the dice and threw three 12s in a row on my come out. Oh, my horn high ace deuce gave me a $1 profit.
This stuff happens.
But at this point you don't want to discuss whether or not this really happened, do you? No... I suggest you just want to challenge me for saying it as if I have something at stake here? I don't. I didnt throw the 18 yos in a row, and I didn't bet it, and I make no claims about being a dice controller or influencer or being the greatest craps shooter in the world. The only thing I can tell you is that I missed a chance to make a gazillion bucks.
Quote: Alan M
Would you like me to tell you the story about the player at my table at Caesars who bet 12 for thirty throws with a green chip each time and never hit? And so he gave up. And then I got the dice and threw three 12s in a row on my come out. Oh, my horn high ace deuce gave me a $1 profit.
This stuff happens.
Now your making sense, nobody would ever question someone betting the 12 for 30 rolls of the dice and never hitting it. Finger snappers do that all the time, they just look at what the pay off is and believe that they have a good bet, maybe they didn't do to good in school and never read the first thing about the game of craps, they also may think that they are still playing street craps! For what ever reason you have players doing this kind of thing all the time.
If the casinos only customers where smart individuals, that were well educated they would have a major problem. Their customer base would be down, if these customers were not looking at playing any casino game as a form of entertainment, but playing them to make money.
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We see all kinds of stupid betting going on at the craps table, it's what keeps the games going in the casinos. All their game are based on losers, that is why they develop stupid bets, they know that they will always have fools that will bet on them.
Quote: Alan M
But at this point you don't want to discuss whether or not this really happened, do you?
Alan if you are talking about the stupid customer betting on the 12 without hitting it why in they world I question that?
Now for the 18 Yo's in a row that's a different story, we all love to hear good stories about anything that happens on the craps tables. Sorry when I asked a bunch of dealers about how many Yo's in a row they have seen and I told them about your claim,.. all I got was a good laugh out of them,.. on that question,.. when I told them about 18 Yo's in a row. I will continue to do my research on your claim tonight when I'm on the craps tables, maybe I will run into one of those dealers that was on that table with you that day, I'm sure that they would remember something like that happening, then I can apologize to you,..for finding it hard to believe!
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Quote: superrickNow for the 18 Yo's in a row that's a different story...
I haven't even heard of anyone throwing eighteen 7's in a row, let alone eighteen 11's.
I will say this though I checked my tier credits Fri night before playing this way on Sat and after playing literally all day Sat my Tier credits had dropped over a 1000 from Fri night. I don't know if this had anything to do with how I played of not. I called and asked why my points where dropped and they said that you shouldn't check them untill 24 hours after you played. They said somebody must have made a mistake in recording my play and went back and fixed it. Anyone ever heard of tier credits dropping??
Quote: Beethoven9thI haven't even heard of anyone throwing eighteen 7's in a row, let alone eighteen 11's.
Grits N Gravy, obv.
“Grits is most known for rolling 77 7's in a row at a casino in Las Vegas, making him a millionaire in the process. We asked him what he did with the money: "I bought my momma a car, I spent the rest...on PCP”
Source - Chapelle Show, Season 2
;)
Quote: NokTangThanks for both explanations. This bet is only available on the come out roll according to the link kindly provided. To me, a person who doesn't matter, it turns craps into a carnival game and would be less attractive to a gambler who's been down many paths of self destruction. I prefer the standard layout with the best odds I can get.
At Bellagio they don't bother marking the numbers if no one is playing the "Feature Bets" (which is what they call the all-tall etc.) So if you happen to walk up to the table and no one's been playing them, you can plunk down on them right away and they'll start marking each number. A new come-out roll, new shooter is the only time you would be "guaranteed" to be able to get it, though.
Quote: Beethoven9thI haven't even heard of anyone throwing eighteen 7's in a row, let alone eighteen 11's.
Well of course not. It's a 1 in 100 trillion event.
Quote: FaceGrits N Gravy, obv.
“Grits is most known for rolling 77 7's in a row at a casino in Las Vegas, making him a millionaire in the process. We asked him what he did with the money: "I bought my momma a car, I spent the rest...on PCP”
Source - Chapelle Show, Season 2
;)
Seven! Seven! Seven! The "World Series of Dice" from the Marcy Projects, one of my favorite skits from that show. Phuck Yiu, Ashy Larry, and Leonard Washington were pretty good too.
Quote: AlanMendelsonFor those of you that are bothered by my being at a table at Caesars when a random shooter rolled the Yo 18 times in a row... never mind. It never happened. It was a lie. I thought it might be my ticket into journalism and hollywood and stardom, but I realize now it backfired. I will never make it now. I regret trying to pass off such a silly comment as being something that I actually saw. How stupid of me.
Listen... you got caught in an exaggeration. It happens. No need to double down on it. Here's what probably happened: You saw a shooter toss something like eight 11s in 14 tries. Something MUCH more likely than eighteen 11s in 18 tries, which is, as demonstrated earlier in the thread, impossible with fair dice and fair shots.
It's human nature to exaggerate things in telling stories. It happens all the time. If you're called on it, it's best to admit it rather than defend it. (Or in your case, being sarcastic about it.)
Quote: tringlomaneWell of course not. It's a 1 in 100 trillion event.
Seven! Seven! Seven! The "World Series of Dice" from the Marcy Projects, one of my favorite skits from that show. Phuck Yiu, Ashy Larry, and Leonard Washington were pretty good too.
I believe it's spelled "seben"
I used to have a World Series of Dice t-shirt that I wore to the casinos.
Quote: sodawaterListen... you got caught in an exaggeration.
I didn't exaggerate. I lied. I even said that James, one of the original craps dealers from when Caesars opened, was the stickman and twice during the roll stopped to inspect the dice. That kind of detail is a lie -- its not an exaggeration.
And let's look at my motive for the lie, in fact, let's look at all of the motives:
1. I was the shooter. (Not)
2. I had the parlay of a lifetime. (Not)
3. I am trying to promote a book. (Not)
Yes, the whole thing was a lie. You caught me. Now call me a liar. You would be 100% justified. Because what I told you was nothing but a complete lie even down to the detail that there were three of us at the table and not one of us even made the bet even once, and stood there like idiots.
What an absolute lie it was. Who wouldn't throw down at least a dollar after the fifth... or the tenth... of the 18th yo was rolled?
Every person on the planet could start rolling dice 24 hours a day and it wouldn't happen until the sun burned out.
So you are now claiming you saw someone playing with misspotted dice or executing illegal rolls -- which is interesting. Do you have any more observations about what happened?
It's a good thing for me... or more importantly for that shooter... they still don't burn witches.
Quote: AlanMendelsonWell gosh, something like rolling 18 yos in a row now has to be cheating because it couldnt happen? Sure. It was cheating.
Yes, that is basically the gist of it.
Actually, it's also much more likely you hallucinated the entire visit to the casino than 18 elevens in a row actually happening.
Quote: AlanMendelsonYeah it was a hallucination. That's it. Deal.
I'd rank the probabilities this way:
More Likely <-- Story exaggeration, cheating, hallucination, actually happened --> Least Likely
Quote: AlanMendelsonBecause what I told you was nothing but a complete lie even down to the detail that there were three of us at the table and not one of us even made the bet even once, and stood there like idiots.
What an absolute lie it was. Who wouldn't throw down at least a dollar after the fifth... or the tenth... of the 18th yo was rolled?
Seriously...I'd call you a damn fool to your face...if after 5 in a row, you didn't at least throw a buck on it...
Shit, once I saw a guy throw only SIX yo's in a row, and after the THIRD one, you can bet your sweet ass I tossed a $5 chip on it (as did the majority of the table) and we hit it (I even went to $10, then to $25)
But I think I left this part of the story out:
I had not yet bought in. The shooter had the dice. I don't buy in until a shooter sevens-out. So I stood there, like a good, respectful craps player should.
Let me ask you something... do you even understand the probability of throwing 18 elevens in a row? It's (2/36)^18. That's 2.54 x 10 ^-23. It would be much more likely to toss a fair coin 77 times and get only heads than to throw 18 elevens in a row.
That is not something that can happen in a casino. It's orders of magnitude beyond what could possibly happen in a casino.
Winning a powerball jackpot with a single ticket is 1 in 175.22351 million.
It's about 224,549,822,539,775 times more likely (yes, literally) to win the powerball with a single ticket than to throw 18 elevens in a row.
That means that, on average, the powerball drawing will come up 1-2-3-4-5-1 more than 224 trillion times before 18 elevens are thrown in a row, assuming someone starts rolling the dice every time they do a drawing.
Another way of looking at it -- the chance of throwing 18 elevens in a row is about the same chance that you, buying a single ticket each time, win the NEXT THREE powerball jackpots in a row.
Another way of looking at it -- 18 elevens in a row have NEVER happened with fair dice and fair throws in the history of all the dice rolled ever on earth, with as much certainty as we have about anything, really.
Do you maybe want to reconsider your statement that you are sure you saw 18 elevens thrown in a row at the craps table?
It's okay that it happened. I'm not trying to bilk you out of any money. I'm not trying to say I'm the best player in the world. I'm not telling you it will happen again.
I'm really getting a laugh out of this.
You are either lying or mistaken.
Why you would persist with this after reading the above numbers is the only mystery.
Quote: AlanMendelsonShould I have stood there and said "this didn't happen."
Yes, you should have.
If I were at a craps table and saw 18 elevens rolled in a row with fair dice and fair throws, I would be extremely concerned that I was actually lying in a bed somewhere with a very high fever.
Or I would be concerned that my entire life up to that point has been a giant reality show, and every person I've ever met is an actor, and every event in my life had been staged.
Because both are much more likely than 18 elevens thrown in a row with fair dice and fair throws.
If you are sitting there now thinking that it actually happened, then you need to see a neurologist, because it is exponentially more likely you are experiencing pathological memory problems than it actually happening as you remember it.
What are the odds that I would grow up in Rockland County, New York and my TV career would take me to Los Angeles. And my wife grew up in Tucson, Arizona and her career in health care would also take her to LA. And we would meet on a blind date after we were both divorced and get married by a Rabbi at a craps table at Caesars Palace?
Do those long odds mean it didn't happen? Or that I'm lying, or I really didn't get married and I still have a chance of getting a date with Stephanie Zimbalist?
Quote: AlanMendelsonYou say it didn't happen because of the odds of it happening. I understand. So figure this:
What are the odds that I would grow up in Rockland County, New York and my TV career would take me to Los Angeles. And my wife grew up in Tucson, Arizona and her career in health care would also take her to LA. And we would meet on a blind date after we were both divorced and get married by a Rabbi at a craps table at Caesars Palace?
Do those long odds mean it didn't happen? Or that I'm lying, or I really didn't get married and I still have a chance of getting a date with Stephanie Zimbalist?
every time you shuffle a deck of cards, the sequence created is indescribably unlikely. But something has to happen. That doesn't mean, though, that you can say that you saw someone shuffle a deck of cards fairly and it came out suited and in order. We can rule out that statement as false based on the odds. Because the alternative is that you remembered wrong or are lying, and both are infinitely more likely.
Quote: sodawaterevery time you shuffle a deck of cards, the sequence created is indescribably unlikely. But something has to happen. That doesn't mean, though, that you can say that you saw someone shuffle a deck of cards fairly and it came out suited and in order. We can rule out that statement as false based on the odds. Because the alternative is that you remembered wrong or are lying, and both are infinitely more likely.
If it happened, you would rule it out because of the odds of it happening? Really? Honestly? That it happened means nothing. Only the odds of it not happening matter? Wow.
This is crazy talk.
Quote: AlanMendelsonThis takes the cake:
If it happened, you would rule it out because of the odds of it happening? Really? Honestly? That it happened means nothing. Only the odds of it not happening matter? Wow.
This is crazy talk.
The chances of throwing 18 elevens in a row with fair dice and fair throws are so slim, that under Bayes Theorem, there would be no possible way to prove that it actually happened.
You could have video of it from 100 different angles, synchronized with an atomic clock, with someone checking the dice between every roll on a caliper, and I could actually be there, watching, and it's still more likely that it was some sort of magic trick, or some sort of giant long con, or some sort of feverish hallucination.
It would be more likely that the entirety of human civilization, the entire history of our species, was some sort of long-term prank staged by alien puppetmasters leading to the moment of throwing 18 elevens in a row with fair dice and fair throws, than it actually happening randomly in a casino.
Some things are so unlikely that even if they happen, you can't prove they happened, because the conditional probability is too low. At that point you are getting into philosophical arguments as to what constitutes reality and what separates past events from future events.
Take a look at this article -- http://betterexplained.com/articles/an-intuitive-and-short-explanation-of-bayes-theorem/
If the actual probability of something is low enough, the chances of a true positive result are extremely low, even with a super accurate test. In this case, your memory is the test, and it's much more likely your memory has failed than what you saw actually happening.
Crazy stuff happens every day...why do we think Alan is not telling the truth? Is he a proven liar or does he tell tall tales often?
Just wondering...
Quote: AlanMendelsonOr the dice were crooked (biased? It was Caesars!) ?
Hi. There are two choices, up to you to pick one.
Choice One:
1. One of the die contained all five spot sides.
2. The other one contained all six spot sides.
This seems impossible to believe, at Caesars or even a charity event.
So that leaves the second possibility:
It didn't happen because it's impossible.
Quote: RonCIf you can figure out the odds against something happening, then it must be at least possible for it to happen.
Crazy stuff happens every day...why do we think Alan is not telling the truth? Is he a proven liar or does he tell tall tales often?
Just wondering...
Ron, haven't you figured it out? This is a "math site" where people live by probabilities. Tell them you witnessed something and they quote math theory that tells you that you didn't see it happen.
Here's a probabllity question for the math guys: What are the chances that Alan Mendelson who had a career for 35+ years in the news business and has been an expert witness in court cases and has testified in criminal trials for his ability to recount events would be having a discussion about what he saw happen at a craps table on a website with someone who goes by the name of "sodawater"?
Here's another question: Why is it so important that I be proved wrong and that it didn't happen?
Quote: AlanMendelson
Here's another question: Why is it so important that I be proved wrong and that it didn't happen?
Hello. Because it defies belief in life itself.
But then again, this ceased being a craps thread, and more like a pissing contest quite a while ago.
How about we just have your fathers meet and beat each other up?
Quote: Alan M
For those of you that are bothered by my being at a table at Caesars when a random shooter rolled the Yo 18 times in a row... never mind. It never happened. It was a lie. I thought it might be my ticket into journalism and hollywood and stardom, but I realize now it backfired. I will never make it now. I regret trying to pass off such a silly comment as being something that I actually saw. How stupid of me.
Quote: Beethoven9th
I haven't even heard of anyone throwing eighteen 7's in a row, let alone eighteen 11's.
Quote: tringlomane
Well of course not. It's a 1 in 100 trillion event.
Quote: Alan M
I was a damn fool.
But I think I left this part of the story out:
I had not yet bought in. The shooter had the dice. I don't buy in until a shooter sevens-out. So I stood there, like a good, respectful craps player should.
Well Alan if you did leave out that part of the story, I'm sure you also miss out on the front part of the roll count!
Alan M
I track every table that I play on and ever roll that happens on the table, I've seen a lot of what I would call crazy things happen on the tables that I play on. I've read some of the greatest fiction you would ever want to read about the game of craps. We have some writers that get away with writing fiction everyday, in the DI world. When I see outrageous claims like 23,..6's in a 26 roll, I stop and think about what I just read, now I'm not a math guy but I have enough commonsense to know that what the writer was writing about was nothing more then BS.
Some of these writers get away with what they write by putting someones name in a book and praising all the great things they have done on a craps table in the DI world. So when they use this same persons name again to say that something happened on a craps table, they know that the person is not going to say it didn't happen. These guys are telling stories to sell books or to sell schools.
What happens on a craps table all the time,..is someone will have a good roll, the players are all screaming and having a good time, when the rolls is over with one player will say that the shooter had a 50 roll, everybody goes along with what that player said. When in fact the roll was only a 25 roll, it happens all the time. It's a good thing for the dealers to go along with what ever was said, they are not going to counterdict what the players say, it's good for business for the players to think they just saw a fifty roll!
The dealers couldn't tell you how many rolls it was, they couldn't tell you how long the roll went on for,..they don't care! The players get caught up in the moment with all the excitement that is happening on the table. Nobody has been counting the rolls, except me. When asked I will tell everybody on the table what really happened, and some players have even told me that what I told them was wrong, the believe what the first person that wasn't counting the rolls said.
Alan I seen a lot of strange thing happen on the craps table, now what I would call strange is 5,..12's in a row or 5,..11's in a row or any box number repeating 5 times, and ever time something like that happens, all the players around the table gets what just happened wrong,. for the most part.
This is what probably happened when you were on the table, someone throw out a number and everybody went along with it! Unfortunately for you,..you wrote about it here, and got called out on it! Did you do wrong,..no in your mind that is what happened, you believed what someone else said.
It all comes down to what others around a table thinks happened, none of them were tracking the table, none of them knew what the roll count was, and none of them had the brains to make a bet on what they were seeing, even if it wasn't 18 Yo's, I'm sure that there were a few that you could have made money on!
Tracking the table is the only way of reporting something that happened on a table, other wise it's just hearsay.
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Quote: superrickWell Alan if you did leave out that part of the story, I'm sure you also miss out on the front part of the roll count!
Why would I miss the start of the count? The string of 18 yos wasn't on the come out. He already had the dice when I walked up to the table.
Some of the comments here really amaze me:
Quote: NokTangHello. Because it defies belief in life itself.
Really? An event such as rolling 18 yos in a row defies belief in life itself? Wow, that's a bit extreme for me.
Like I said earlier -- forget it. It didn't happen. It's all a lie. I have no money to show for it, and neither does anyone else.
Quote: Alan M=
Why would I miss the start of the count? The string of 18 yos wasn't on the come out. He already had the dice when I walked up to the table.
Some of the comments here really amaze me:
Yes,.. some comments really amaze me too! I gave you a way out, I really do see these things happening on the tables all the time where someone says that was so many rolls and it wasn't! Now I see why you and Ahigh got along so good. Some people don't know when to admit they were wrong. Unless you were tracking the table and didn't get caught up in the roll you may have made a mistake in the roll count, but it doesn't sound like you would ever admit to that!
Quote: superrickYes,.. some comments really amaze me too! I gave you a way out, I really do see these things happening on the tables all the time where someone says that was so many rolls and it wasn't! Now I see why you and Ahigh got along so good. Some people don't know when to admit they were wrong. Unless you were tracking the table and didn't get caught up in the roll you may have made a mistake in the roll count, but it doesn't sound like you would ever admit to that!
why would I admit I was wrong? I was there. Were you?
I think it's your lack of understanding of just how small a number 10^-23 is that is leading you to continue with this charade. If you understood how small a number that is, you definitely wouldn't claim to have witnessed it.
You are trying to tell me that I didn't see what I saw because the probabilities of it happening are so small.
You are not saying that you were also there and had a different count than I did. No. You are just saying flat out that I am wrong.
What you could say is "wow, that is unbelievable because the chance of that happening is so small." Instead you insult me, you accuse me of lying or hallucinating and attack my character.
I was there. I know what happened. Don't believe me. It's okay.
Quote: AlanMendelsonYou realize what is so absurd about all of this?
You are trying to tell me that I didn't see what I saw because the probabilities of it happening are so small.
You are not saying that you were also there and had a different count than I did. No. You are just saying flat out that I am wrong.
What you could say is "wow, that is unbelievable because the chance of that happening is so small." Instead you insult me, you accuse me of lying or hallucinating and attack my character.
I was there. I know what happened. Don't believe me. It's okay.
It doesn't matter if you were there or not. It cannot happen. Therefore you couldn't have seen it.
Just like it's "possible" for me to be named the Miami Heat's starting center next season, but in reality...no dice! (pun intended)
