Myths About Controlled Shooters, Shooting and the Captain

Are we sure that's a woman? The story will be a DI dressed and a grandma to avoid heat.

This is proof that so called DI's that are winning are just on one long good run. I suppose if that happen to me I would also believe I could control the dice.

Quote: Ahigh

Also, don't forget, it's quite possible that multiple other people have had longer rolls where nobody was making enough money to take notice.

The significant thing of this story is that a record was made of this performance.

At the Silverton a few days ago, some guy turned $300 into over $8,000 while I watched.

No biggie, no dice control. Just luck.

Just put your $300 on one of the 30/1 prop bets. You'll turn it into $9000 once in a while.

Quote: Ahigh

Breaking a promise to a dead guy would truly only matter if there were living relatives who stood to lose something from the revelation.

It should matter a lot to the person that made the promise.

If you make a promise to a friend that you will take some bit of info to your grave, that is exactly what you do. You don't reveal it on your deathbed, or after they've died, or after they and everyone that ever knew them has died.

In some circles this would be considered "integrity" or possibly "honor".

A man is only as good as his word, and I applaud Frank for keeping his.

As to the rest of the thread - I bet like it's a game of chance and I'm more than OK with that. I generally don't let the same shooter beat me three times - beat me twice and I wait until the dice are passed before betting again.

Quote: TerribleTom

It should matter a lot to the person that made the promise.

If you make a promise to a friend that you will take some bit of info to your grave, that is exactly what you do. You don't reveal it on your deathbed, or after they've died, or after they and everyone that ever knew them has died.

In some circles this would be considered "integrity" or possibly "honor".

A man is only as good as his word, and I applaud Frank for keeping his.

As to the rest of the thread - I bet like it's a game of chance and I'm more than OK with that. I generally don't let the same shooter beat me three times - beat me twice and I wait until the dice are passed before betting again.

I respect Frank. And you're right about integrity. I just think that this is more about stories than it is about anything else. I am not a story-teller myself. So I'm not skilled in the art of telling good stories, but character development is very important.

If you don't have some characters for which you are in complete control of their presentation and/or identity, it sure is hard to be creative.

But I'll admit, it is certainly possible that everything that Frank is saying is without intentional deceit in order to sell more stories.

Maybe I should create my own characters. If you can't beat 'em join 'em!

If you believe that The Captain is a fictional character, there would be no reason not to tell the rest of the story once the character's death had been written.

Quote: TerribleTom

If you believe that The Captain is a fictional character, there would be no reason not to tell the rest of the story once the character's death had been written.

I don't honestly care if this one character is real or not to be honest with you. From my view, there is only one point to be made and that is that whether we are talking about Frank or anyone else who sells the idea of dice control, the claims are pretty dubious and the characters are relatively questionable in terms of reality (IE: do they exist or not?)

I have worked my butt off in order to do very real stuff to investigate dice control, and nobody else cares because if it is real, it's too much hard work for anyone to be interested in the reality. They are all only interested in the fantasy.

Sell the fantasy.

This is one of the last efforts I made to explain all that I was doing with my efforts. Vegas Dice Controller was interested. That was about it, really. It was quite a lot of work to create all that software, and if the Captain really existed, I would imagine he is just as likely to be really lucky as anything else.

Even the ability to develop the skill he supposedly had could be considered luck if you think about it.



When I get into these depths, generally speaking, everyone's brain turns off.

What I am doing to investigate this is just simply very hard work that pays either negatively or very little.

Quote: Ahigh

I have worked my butt off in order to do very real stuff to investigate dice control, and nobody else cares because if it is real,

I'm always happy to entertain real evidence that DI is for real. My offer for a challenge is still on as well.

Quote: Wizard

I'm always happy to entertain real evidence that DI is for real. My offer for a challenge is still on as well.

I still have all of the software and hardware. My wife had me box all the "crazy wires" up and put them away. But I could drag them all out and set everything back up.

I did beat the Silverton last year, but it could have been luck. As little as I bet odds, it's somewhat plausible that I am playing an advantage on them.

I think Benjamin at the Silverton feels that I may have an advantage, but he hasn't told me that. He catches most of the blackjack counters at the Silverton and he follows my wins and losses very closely. He was the one who informed me I was beating them last year.

But honestly, it's a ton of work and I am not sure I have the stamina any longer. If it is possible, I may be on the cusp, though. Positive reinforcement might help, I don't know. But I feel pretty beat up.

Part of what I did last year was to only bet on my roll in general. This year, I more or less blew that rule, and I have lost. It gets tiresome waiting for empty tables and only betting on yourself.

If it's a real guy and Frank is just honoring his promise not to reveal the details of the story - then I can respect Frank's refusal to reveal the details.

Fantasy is a very popular genre, that's for sure. Very profitable for lots of people.

I'm skeptical of any claims of dice control or even influence. VERY skeptical.

Casinos in general do not engage in games of skill. They offer games of chance where the chances are in their favor. There may be a few rare exceptions - like Deuces Wild VP with an EV of 100.7 or so, but offering up $0.70 on $100 to the rare VP player that can execute a perfect strategy is a pretty safe bet - most folks that play VP are doing it at the bar for free drinks, and even if they know what perfect strategy is (a small fraction) they probably don't execute a perfect strategy every time they play.

Craps is a game of chance.

Quote: TerribleTom

If it's a real guy and Frank is just honoring his promise not to reveal the details of the story - then I can respect Frank's refusal to reveal the details.

Fantasy is a very popular genre, that's for sure. Very profitable for lots of people.

I'm skeptical of any claims of dice control or even influence. VERY skeptical.

Casinos in general do not engage in games of skill. They offer games of chance where the chances are in their favor. There may be a few rare exceptions - like Deuces Wild VP with an EV of 100.7 or so, but offering up $0.70 on $100 to the rare VP player that can execute a perfect strategy is a pretty safe bet - most folks that play VP are doing it at the bar for free drinks, and even if they know what perfect strategy is (a small fraction) they probably don't execute a perfect strategy every time they play.

Craps is a game of chance.

I see your perspective clearly. That's a pretty tight little world you live in.

This reminds me when my wife makes comments to me about how she feels things work in the casino. I only recently showed her how to train on VP trainers and she has hit a couple of Royals since then and is ahead. But she hasn't made the leap to "craps is [just] a game of chance" as you have just because she can get a couple hundred perfects in a row and knows how to inspect a pay table. She has said, "I'm not interested in craps any more I like video poker" like you are implying though.

I enjoy the challenge of what other people dismiss as being too difficult.

Quote: Ahigh

I don't honestly care if this one character is real or not to be honest with you. From my view, there is only one point to be made and that is that whether we are talking about Frank or anyone else who sells the idea of dice control, the claims are pretty dubious and the characters are relatively questionable in terms of reality (IE: do they exist or not?)

I have worked my butt off in order to do very real stuff to investigate dice control, and nobody else cares because if it is real, it's too much hard work for anyone to be interested in the reality. They are all only interested in the fantasy.

Sell the fantasy.

Yeah, it's a lot of time invested.

I don't think that nobody cared. Not everyone is vocal.

Do you not still believe?

I was hoping Nicolay [sp?] would come back for round two.

Other's were interested, like I said not everyone has the need to be heard.

Quote: Ahigh

But she hasn't made the leap to "craps is [just] a game of chance" as you have just because she can get a couple hundred perfects in a row and knows how to inspect a pay table. She has said, "I'm not interested in craps any more I like video poker" like you are implying though.

What do you mean by "perfects"?

How is considering craps a game of chance a "leap"? It is certainly considered such by both the casino and the law as well as by most people - craps players or otherwise.

I did not mean to imply that anyone should give up or lose interest in craps for VP or anything of the sort - just that it's not a terribly unsafe bet for the house to offer VP variants that are theoretically +EV for the player because very few players will be able to learn and execute perfect strategy for a fraction of a percent in advantage vs. the house.

Frank is a good writer, and had a Catholic education.

It could well be that "The Captain of Craps" is but the embellishment (ahem) of a real fellow's exploits.

But really, calling him the first DI when by report he knew nothing of it, or calling "the arm" the best shooter ever is akin to starting a religion by basing it on the good work of a couple of divinely touched prophets / religious figures.

Hello, Adam and Eve: meet that old serpent, seven out.

Quote: TerribleTom

What do you mean by "perfects"?

https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/video-poker-+-perfect-play/id420985787?mt=8

Quote: TerribleTom

How is considering craps a game of chance a "leap"?

Both games are games of skill by the definition that if you can intentionally lose, it's a game of skill. Just flat bet all the hop bets every roll.

The game of craps involves more than simply chance. Any suggestion to the contrary is a myopic and misinformed view of the game.

No matter how it brings closure to your mind, it is flawed to think that there is nothing more to craps than simple chance. And that's the implication and "leap" that I take objection to.

Most people who have a flawed view on the game of craps simply have an overly simplistic view on the game itself in my opinion.

Are you implying that because some bets are better than others, it's a game of skill? That is a very, very, very lax definition of "skill".

Quote: TerribleTom

If you believe that The Captain is a fictional character, there would be no reason not to tell the rest of the story once the character's death had been written.

Not as long as you are still selling books. To say nothing of the true believers who gave you their money !

" Most people who have a flawed view on the game of craps simply have an overly simplistic view on the game itself in my opinion. "

Two dice, pass or don't pass, my how very complex. Need an IQ above 70 to qualify.

Quote: Buzzard

" Most people who have a flawed view on the game of craps simply have an overly simplistic view on the game itself in my opinion. "

Two dice, pass or don't pass, my how very complex. Need an IQ above 70 to qualify.

And if it's below 70 you are the perfect candidate to pay Frank for some dice control lessons.

Does he accept Paypal ?

Quote: Ahigh

Both games are games of skill by the definition that if you can intentionally lose, it's a game of skill. Just flat bet all the hop bets every roll.

The game of craps involves more than simply chance. Any suggestion to the contrary is a myopic and misinformed view of the game.

No matter how it brings closure to your mind, it is flawed to think that there is nothing more to craps than simple chance. And that's the implication and "leap" that I take objection to.

Most people who have a flawed view on the game of craps simply have an overly simplistic view on the game itself in my opinion.

Wow, I've really missed your ridiculous statements and false information. The fact that someone can make a worse bet than another and lose faster does not change the game from chance to skill. Craps is a game of chance just like slots are. If you want to call choosing better bets skillful, fine, I'll give you that although it may be one of the easiest attainable skills in the history of the world. But the game is a game of chance.

ZCore13

Quote: Zcore13

Wow, I've really missed your ridiculous statements and false information. The fact that someone can make a worse bet than another and lose faster does not change the game from chance to skill. Craps is a game of chance just like slots are. If you want to call choosing better bets skillful, fine, I'll give you that although it may be one of the easiest attainable skills in the history of the world. But the game is a game of chance.

Your addressing me on this forum is a game of chance too. A game of skill can still be a negative expectation game, just like my addressing you. Skill is still required.

Certainly you can grasp this concept, no?

I don't know why you go so far out of your way to insult me. Your frequency of slighting me or my comments is relatively high when you do choose to address me.

You really should break out of your limited approach to things.

I didn't define the difference between a game of pure chance and a game of chance that also involves skill.

Certainly you aren't suggesting that there is no distinction, or are you?

It is a game of chance that has an element of skill (the skill in selecting bets). Not one or the other, but both.

My pointing out the lack of some people's ability to acknowledge this is exactly what I intended to do. And thanks for including yourself in those who I am describing.

Quote: Ahigh

It is a game of chance that has an element of skill (the skill in selecting bets). Not one or the other, but both.

That is like saying that slots is a game of skill because you have to feed the money into the machine instead of giving it to some random guy walking by. And you have to hit the spin button instead of the service button.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

That is like saying that slots is a game of skill because you have to feed the money into the machine instead of giving it to some random guy walking by. And you have to hit the spin button instead of the service button.

No, as a matter of fact, it is nothing like saying what you suggested.

I know what you're trying (and failing) to imply, and I think that you are thinking "pure skill" when you say "game of skill."

Game of skill has a legal definition that excludes games of chance. And to clarify, I am not saying that craps is a game of pure skill for anyone confused.

I am saying that it is NOT a game of PURE CHANCE.

Skill is involved.

There seems to be a straw man argument forming that is based on the idea that I was suggesting that there is no chance involved.

I never made that suggestion, and it should be obvious to any layperson that craps involves chance as a predominant determining factor for the outcome given that a player is skilled enough not to intentionally lose.

But you can, in fact, intentionally lose. And a player must be smart enough not to do that. FACT.

Therefore, the game requires skill in order to have any chance at all in order to win.

Therefore it is a game of skill that depends predominately on chance FOR A PLAYER SKILLED ENOUGH TO HAVE ANY CHANCE AT ALL NOT TO LOSE ON EACH AND EVERY ROLL.

Most people are skilled enough, in fact, but that's getting into the technical details. You can lose on purpose very easily.

So in the domain of GAMBLING, it's a game that involves skill (not to be confused with a game of pure skill which is not even needed to be regulated and is not even considered gambling by law).

It is not a game of PURE CHANCE.

Quote: Ahigh

I know what you're saying, and I think that you are thinking "pure skill" when you say "game of skill."

Game of skill has a legal definition that excludes games of chance. And to clarify, I am not saying that craps is a game of pure skill for anyone confused.

I am saying that it is NOT a game of PURE CHANCE.

Skill is involved.

There seems to be a straw man argument forming that is based on me suggesting that there is no chance involved.

I never made that suggestion, and it should be obvious to any layperson that craps involves chance as a predominant determining factor for the outcome given that a player is skilled enough not to intentionally lose.

But you can, in fact, intentionally lose. And a player must be smart enough not to do that. FACT.

Therefore, the game requires skill in order to have any chance at all in order to win.

Therefore it is a game of skill that depends predominately on chance FOR A PLAYER SKILLED ENOUGH TO HAVE ANY CHANCE AT ALL NOT TO LOSE ON EACH AND EVERY ROLL.

Most people are skilled enough, in fact, but that's getting into the technical details. You can lose on purpose very easily.

The fact that you can try and lose with every ounce of "skill" that you have and still win makes it 100% game of chance. Are there any skills you own (other than craps) that you can purposely try and lose at and fail?

ZCore13

Carnival games are games of skill. Popping balloons with darts, for example.

I can choose to hit until I bust every time at the BJ table, that doesn't make BJ a game of skill. BJ is a game of chance where the player can increase their chances in two ways:

1. knowing the best decision to make given the cards on the table
2. counting cards and modifying their decisions based on the count

If you don't know how to do #1, #2 won't help a whole lot.

If one possesses both "skills", it does not change the nature of the game. BJ is still a game of chance, but the player has maximized their chances by knowing how to best play the game and by making an informed guess about the state of the deck(s) being played.

Poker is probably the most skill-reliant game in a casino, and as such many "real" poker games are played between players and the house takes a commission - the casino is not in the business of hiring skilled poker players and bluffing their way to riches. The house is not an active participant in the game, they just provide an ostensibly safe & fair environment for the game for a fee.

Your suggestion that betting is a skill in and of itself is ludicrous. Statistically, the best bet at the craps table is the DP + max odds. Does that make every other bet a bad play? Is making any -EV wager ever a good idea? If betting is a skill then the only good bet is one where the bettor has +EV and those situations are rare.

If craps is a game of skill, the skill would be in the rolling of the dice, not in how one bets. There are good bets and bad bets, but the nature of the bet does not change the game.

Some DIs compare rolling dice to playing golf - that somehow the ability to roll fewer sevens (or more hard ways, or whatever) - is akin to sinking long putts.

I am fairly certain that casinos are legally forbidden from offering wagers on games of skill, and that conversely the games on the carnival midway are legally required to be games of skill and not games of chance.

Quote: Zcore13

The fact that you can try and lose with every ounce of "skill" that you have and still win makes it 100% game of chance. Are there any skills you own (other than craps) that you can purposely try and lose at and fail?

If you hop the easy ways for $2 each ($30 total) and the hardways and hi-lo for $1 each ($1 hop each pair), you will bet $36 per roll. You will lose $5 for every pair rolled and $4 for every non pair rolled.

Not doing something like this (no matter how stupid you think it is) requires skill.

Would you agree, or would you say that not betting this way is luck?

Knowledge and skill are not the same thing.

Knowing that you are making a set of wagers that makes it impossible for you to come out ahead is not exactly what I would call a skill.

Being able to roll enough hard ways to consistently beat the house would be a skill.

Quote: Ahigh

No, as a matter of fact, it is nothing like saying what you suggested.

I know what you're trying (and failing) to imply, and I think that you are thinking "pure skill" when you say "game of skill."

Game of skill has a legal definition that excludes games of chance. And to clarify, I am not saying that craps is a game of pure skill for anyone confused.

I am saying that it is NOT a game of PURE CHANCE.

Skill is involved.

There seems to be a straw man argument forming that is based on the idea that I was suggesting that there is no chance involved.

I never made that suggestion, and it should be obvious to any layperson that craps involves chance as a predominant determining factor for the outcome given that a player is skilled enough not to intentionally lose.

But you can, in fact, intentionally lose. And a player must be smart enough not to do that. FACT.

Therefore, the game requires skill in order to have any chance at all in order to win.

Therefore it is a game of skill that depends predominately on chance FOR A PLAYER SKILLED ENOUGH TO HAVE ANY CHANCE AT ALL NOT TO LOSE ON EACH AND EVERY ROLL.

Most people are skilled enough, in fact, but that's getting into the technical details. You can lose on purpose very easily.

So in the domain of GAMBLING, it's a game that involves skill (not to be confused with a game of pure skill which is not even needed to be regulated and is not even considered gambling by law).

It is not a game of PURE CHANCE.

There is chance involved in every gambling game, skillful or not. No one ever said anything about pure skill.

Your definition of "skill" is an extremely low bar. In baccarat, a player could bet on player and banker at the same time. In roulette, a player can bet on all the numbers at the same time. That does not make these games of skill, by any reasonable definition. You are trying to re-define a word in a different way than it is commonly used, and then claiming that that ridiculous definition makes you correct. It's ridiculous. Craps, baccarat, and roulette are games of pure luck. There is exactly zero skill involved.

Quote: Ahigh

If you hop the easy ways for $2 each ($30 total) and the hardways and hi-lo for $1 each ($1 hop each pair), you will bet $36 per roll. You will lose $5 for every pair rolled and $4 for every non pair rolled.

Not doing something like this (no matter how stupid you think it is) requires skill.

Would you agree, or would you say that not betting this way is luck?

False dichotomy. It is neither luck nor skill.

Every day, I don't buy a gun and shoot myself in the head. Every single day, for decades, I have managed to not do this. That does not make me skilled.

Whether you choose to hop the hardways every bet, or simply bet PL w/ max odds, the house edge will still get you in the end.

"Choice," not "skill" is the determinant.

Throw in a bit of "luck," aka "variance," and voila.

If you were to win six hop bets in a row, and then lose six PL bets in a row, would that mean the hop bettor was more "skillful?"

No, "skill" involves other than bet choice, e.g. DI (ahem).

If I turn my back and throw the dice over my shoulder, with my eye closed, how much less are my chances than Ahigh's of rolling a 7 or any per-determined number ? So much for SKILL versus dumbass luck.

Quote: MrV

the house edge will still get you in the end).

Getting it in the end doesn't sound good....isn't that illegal?

Quote: Buzzard

If I turn my back and throw the dice over my shoulder, with my eye closed, how much less are my chances than Ahigh's of rolling a 7 or any per-determined number ? So much for SKILL versus dumbass luck.

Come on Buzz. If you do that you will roll a seven once every 6 rolls. The really good dice controllers get only 6 sevens per 36 rolls!

You guys are wrong, and I am providing just one example.

The Wizard himself spends a considerable amount of time teaching the skills necessary for having the best chance to win at this game.

A game of pure chance would not need such instruction.

I am so sorry that you're wrong, and I understand the defense mechanisms at play.

I only brought this up because so many people are wrong about this idea (the idea that craps is a game of pure chance), and I run into it frequently (people who think the game is simpler than it is because they simply don't understand the various strategies at having the best chance to win).

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Come on Buzz. If you do that you will roll a seven once every 6 rolls. The really good dice controllers get only 6 sevens per 36 rolls!

Oh I see now. I am only allowed 6 tries. WOW That explains everything.

Quote: Ahigh

You guys are wrong, and I am providing just one example.

The Wizard himself spends a considerable amount of time teaching the skills necessary for having the best chance to win at this game.

A game of pure chance would not need such instruction.

I am so sorry that you're wrong, and I understand the defense mechanisms at play.

I only brought this up because so many people are wrong about this idea (the idea that craps is a game of pure chance), and I run into it frequently (people who think the game is simpler than it is because they simply don't understand the various strategies at having the best chance to win).

Do you think that roulette is a game of skill? It passes your "skill" test too. One can bet on 37 out of the 38 numbers on a double-zero wheel and be guaranteed to lose on each spin. I'm sure that someone has been stupid enough to try this at some point. We have had people here who suggest betting player and banker at the same time in baccarat; I guess that makes baccarat a skill game too?

The Wizard spends his time devising proper strategies for games with non-obvious choices. Betting pass or don't pass and taking odds takes all of 3 seconds to teach. See, I just taught everyone how to be an expert craps player.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

The Wizard spends his time devising proper strategies for games with non-obvious choices. Betting pass or don't pass and taking odds takes all of 3 seconds to teach. See, I just taught everyone how to be an expert craps player.

Your question implies to me that you think people that are gambling in the casino are smarter than they are.

Your skill does not define a game of skill.

The general public's skill does.

And yes, even roulette has people betting every possible outcome for at least one unit. A pretty unskilled way to play.

" See, I just taught everyone how to be an expert craps player. "

I can teach anyone to be a superior expert craps player. Just walk on by and leave the fools to their folly.

Quote: Ahigh

Your question implies to me that you think people that are gambling in the casino are smarter than they are.

Your skill does not define a game of skill.

The general public's skill does.

And yes, even roulette has people betting every possible outcome for at least one unit. A pretty unskilled way to play.

What you are describing is not "skill", by the usual definition of the word.

Quote: Ahigh

You guys are wrong, and I am providing just one example.

The Wizard himself spends a considerable amount of time teaching the skills necessary for having the best chance to win at this game.

A game of pure chance would not need such instruction.

I am so sorry that you're wrong, and I understand the defense mechanisms at play.

I only brought this up because so many people are wrong about this idea (the idea that craps is a game of pure chance), and I run into it frequently (people who think the game is simpler than it is because they simply don't understand the various strategies at having the best chance to win).

Oh yea! Everyone I'd wrong again.

Unfortunately, as is normal, you are wrong. The Wizard himself spends absolutely ZERO time teaching the skills necessary to have the best chance to win. He spends a lot of time giving knowledge in hopes people will lose less money than the average player. I'm pretty sure he even suggests that the best thing to do if you like your money I'd to not gamble.

No matter how much you say it (and in my opinion troll on the subject) the fact is craps is a game of pure chance.

Maybe the definition of trolling excludes people that really believe in nonsense? I'm not sure. But to me, repeating the same misleading, incorrect, non-fact based nonsense over and over, if not trolling, is just plain annoying and deceitful.

ZCore13

The definition of "game of skill" has nothing to do with the skill of the players or of the general public.

A game of chance may have some element of skill to it, but chance is the primary deciding factor. Similarly, a game of skill may involve some degree of chance so long as the skill of the player is the primary deciding factor.

For example, golf is a game of skill. If a gust of wind screws up your approach shot, that's a case where a chance event (the gust of wind) influenced what was otherwise a skilled attempt to put the ball in (or at least closer to) the hole.

Many casino games can be played poorly. Never folding at poker. Hitting a pair of 8s when they should be split or hitting on 15 when the dealer is showing a 6, for example. Betting every possible hop bet. Betting black & red simultaneously all night long. This does not make poker, blackjack or roulette games of skill. The primary deciding factor of every wager is chance.

The only possible way to argue that craps is a game of skill is with regards to influencing the dice.

Quote: Zcore13

Oh yea! Everyone I'd wrong again.

Oh yes. Indeed.

Quote: Zcore13

No matter how much you say it (and in my opinion troll on the subject) the fact is craps is a game of pure chance.

Say what? That skill is involved in placing a craps bet?

Just to be clear, you're saying now that there is zero skill in knowing how to bet in craps, right?

Quote: Ahigh

Just to be clear, you're saying now that there is zero skill in knowing how to bet in craps, right?

I know you weren't addressing me, but whatever...

If there is skill in betting on craps, where do you draw the line for good bets vs. bad bets?

https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/#toc-SummaryofMulti-RollBets

Please provide an answer in the form of HE% per Bet Made.

Or perhaps you mean that no single bet at the craps table is a bad bet but that certain combinations of bets are bad?

You seem to be confusing betting strategies with the game itself.

If we play craps for amusement - no bets at all - is the outcome based on skill or chance?

Zeus knows I had my doubt for the longest times, but I have now seen enough to convince me that dice "influencing" is, indeed, real, hey hey.

Quote: TerribleTom

I know you weren't addressing me, but whatever...

If there is skill in betting on craps, where do you draw the line for good bets vs. bad bets?

https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/#toc-SummaryofMulti-RollBets

Please provide an answer in the form of HE% per Bet Made.

Or perhaps you mean that no single bet at the craps table is a bad bet but that certain combinations of bets are bad?

You seem to be confusing betting strategies with the game itself.

If we play craps for amusement - no bets at all - is the outcome based on skill or chance?

This is such a simple answer, but let me just say that I know the edge per roll of every bet on the craps table, even the ones that I don't take.

I have absolutely no idea where you came up with me saying something about strategies. Even if you make a bet for a single roll and take it down, skill is still involved.

The edge that matters that is easy to compare is the edge per roll.

And just to get started, and to further illustrate my point, the chart you point to is wrong. The edge per roll on the hardways in the US is 2.78% not 3.40%. The hardways and the field when the 12 plays triple are the exact same edge per roll as each other in general here in Vegas.

I generally am alright taking bets with an edge per roll of 0.5% or less.

But the CLEARLY UNSKILLED PLAYER has no problem making a horn bet and hopping a three-way seven at the same time.

You guys that disagree that there is skill in NOT BETTING RIDICULOUSLY HIGH HOUSE EDGE BETS are absolutely hilarious in your profoundly absurd assertion that the game is a "game of pure chance."

Even if a casino does not offer odds or lay odds bets with a house edge of zero, the game is still a game of skill as far as casino games go.

And in the case of roulette, even when every single bet except for one has the same house edge, you still need to be skilled enough to have an opportunity to win (not betting every possible outcome for one unit and/or hedging away your opportunity to win).

That's not the ONLY mistake, but the closer you get to making too many bets that hedge against one another, the less skilled a player you are.

As an example of an unskilled craps player, consider the person who bets the horn-high-ace-deuce instead of a four-unit crap-check and a dollar yo.

The only difference between these two betting practices is that the four-unit crap-check and the dollar yo pays a dollar more on the hi-lo outcome.

They are all RIDICULOUSLY stupid bets to make. But even still, a skilled player who wants to make one bet or another has the skill to know which one is better when the only difference is one pays more than the other.

I spent, I think, about eight hours trying to explain this to someone on this forum.

Another example might be a $6 big six is an unskilled bet. There are plenty of bets that require the skill of knowing how to make the bet in a skilled way.

Others on this forum also lack the skill to understand how to bet the game.

My whole point in bringing this up was to illustrate the lack of knowledge of the skill of placing bets in the game and the mistaken belief that the entire game is pure chance.

Anyone who has the capacity to understand what I am saying understands my point.

Everyone else who disagrees is attacking terminology, but the point remains. And here is the point. A skilled craps player can make better bets than an unskilled craps player raising the opportunity to lose less money than the player who does not understand how to properly bet in the game.

Dealers spend time explaining how to bet too. Plenty of folks do.

It's just NOT a game of pure chance. I don't know how more clear it could be, honestly.

Quote: soxfan

Zeus knows I had my doubt for the longest times, but I have now seen enough to convince me that dice "influencing" is, indeed, real, hey hey.

Yeah between that and the baccarat bet progressions it's amazing that the casinos are still in business.

Tell me, then how come every single cat who ever steps up to a 21 table ain't counting cards, and playin with an "edge", hey hey?

deleted

Ahigh is arguing that craps is a game of skill in the sense that poker is a game of skill. The skill is in what a poker player does depending on what cards he gets or what a craps player does after a certain roll. In that sense, neither craps nor poker are games of skill because there is no way of controlling what cards you get or what the dice do. (DI is irrelevant, here.) Now, in golf, baseball pitching, or any other sport, there is more skill in that you can control to some degree how you deliver a ball or what you do with it once you get it.

A baseball batter, however, is skilled in the sense that a craps or poker player is skilled. The batter has no control over how the pitch is delivered; he has to make a (skilled?) decision whether or not to swing, just as a poker or craps player has to decide what to do with the hand/roll he's given.

Skill has a large amount of judgment involved, and in craps, poker, any gambling, for that matter, no player can exercise any judgment over what the initial challenge will be. The judgment (and skill, if any) comes AFTER the fact. So, what I'm saying is that craps or any gambling combines chance (luck) with skill, unlike other sports that require more judgment to anticipate and execute a future result.

IOW, Ahigh, TT, & Zcore are ships passing in the night.