Myths About Controlled Shooters, Shooting and the Captain

Ahigh has convinced me. There is skill at the craps table. And stops once the player rolls the dice.

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There was A guy standing at SL1 for 2 hours going up and down with his bank roll... A blackjack player walks up to the table Calls a for a 100 dollar hopping hard 10, hits it, and goes back to Blackjack tables....

People who believe it takes skill are some of the same people who live and die by all of their other superstitions on a craps table....

They spend all of their time trying to study what others end up doing naturally... And that is "Take a chance, with no fear".


Oh and by the way...
And as long as an old lady who never really played craps holds the record for shooting, no one should even bring up DI.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

All blackjack players are playing with an edge at some point. It's only the counters that know when that is.

I dunno. I saw someone stand on 2,2 recently. It's hard to imagine a deck composition where she had an edge.

Quote: TheWolf713

There was A guy standing at SL1 for 2 hours going up and down with his bank roll... A blackjack player walks up to the table Calls a for a 100 dollar hopping hard 10, hits it, and goes back to Blackjack tables....

People who believe it takes skill are some of the same people who live and die by all of their other superstitions on a craps table....

They spend all of their time trying to study what others end up doing naturally... And that is "Take a chance, with no fear".


Oh and by the way...
And as long as an old lady who never really played craps holds the record for shooting, no one should even bring up DI.

Exactly on all points.


ZCore13

Quote: soxfan

Zeus knows I had my doubt for the longest times, but I have now seen enough to convince me that dice "influencing" is, indeed, real, hey hey.

HOLY S---. STOP THE PRESSES.

Quote: Ahigh

Show me don't tell me.

And quite frankly... some people have to have better reputations for honestly if they want to even show me. I know this FS is a famous name in the gambling world and a friend of the Wizard whose been invited to post here, but quite frankly he could be talking about oxygen in the casinos... he has got to show be the big green tanks, not talk about all the time.

Quote: TheWolf713

Oh and by the way...
And as long as an old lady who never really played craps holds the record for shooting, no one should even bring up DI.

Virtually the entire table were neophytes who had just finished a free lecture on craps... and when the record was broken the casino came out with the champagne. The bubbly was for being lucky, not a dice controller.

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There are many people who read these posts and few who actually do post. I'm one of those! I just had to register to jump into the fire pit here with a first hand experience.

I have made over 130 trips to Las Vegas, all on business, over the past 15 years and have played all over the country as well. Been up and down. Craps is always an interesting game.

As an Engineer/Physicist I look at things a bit differently. I agree with most of the statements that the game can't be beat as it's just two cubes of polyester acetate with very predictable long term outcomes. I agree with most of the statements regarding the short term mathematical variance. Heck I rolled 9 sevens in a row once, nowhere near a table record but certainly stretching the limits of improbability.

As far as dice control or influence... I was conducting a meeting at the Orleans three years ago. During a break one afternoon I looked down on the craps tables - easy to view from the meeting floors - and saw a guy throwing lots of yo's. Way more than he should be. He was a memorable person, very large, pushing four bills perhaps. I couldn't get down to the floor because of my meeting, rats!

Later that night, perhaps 10 pm, I was walking back through the casino and guess who comes walking up to an empty craps table? The big guy! I only had a green chip in my pocket and didn't want to waste the moment coloring up anything so I tossed it to the stick man for a quarter yo. They took the bet. He rolled the 6 and 5. I immediately asked to parlay it. They did. Another 6 and 5. I colored up, left one black for the shooter, one black for the table and headed to the cage.

Now this is one data point from one impartial, no axe to grind, no book to sell first time poster. I don't know who the big guy was and haven't seen him again.

Is it possible this guy can consistently throw elevens? My experience tells me yes but I might have caught him in a statistical variance. Long term will this work? The math and my gut says no and those that can may be a rarity.

I doubt the casinos care. There are too many bad shooters out there. Like me. I haven't rolled in four years after a long losing streak and won't again. I just pass the dice along.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

I dunno. I saw someone stand on 2,2 recently. It's hard to imagine a deck composition where she had an edge.

Edge sorting or hole-card w/ next-card info are two ways, or even just having next-card info (for BP who sits one left). Card steering or ace sequencing (for next hand) is another!

Quote: TerribleTom

Perhaps you mean that no single bet at the craps table is a bad bet but that certain combinations of bets are bad?
You seem to be confusing betting strategies with the game itself.

What else is there as far as the intrinsic nature of the game?

Quote: SanchoPanza

What else is there as far as the intrinsic nature of the game?

The 800 lb gorilla in the casino would of course be DI, if in fact it were proven to exist / actually work as claimed.

A shooter who intentionally influences the outcome of a roll such that his bet is statistically more likely to win would be a skilled craps player.

All the rest of us are just craps monkeys pounding our keyboards, hoping to create the bible.

Quote: Ahigh

The Wizard himself spends a considerable amount of time teaching the skills necessary for having the best chance to win at this game.

You mean the skills necessary to lose your money the slowest way possible.

Quote: 4ofaKind

You mean the skills necessary to lose your money the slowest way possible.

No, not really. To lose the slowest way possible, you may be better off using the five count, no odds, and a single pass line bet.

I think the Wizard advocates that if you're going to gamble, you should embrace volatility and the chance to win.

I've met with him personally and taken issue with him directly for encouraging folks to bet beyond their limits in order to have a better chance to win, so I think I know where he stands on this. I don't think he sees things as I do here, and I respect his view. But I see some folks lose quickly from bad luck doing things the right way and don't totally understand the risks they are taking, just the smaller house edge and that it is better.

If you are just playing to have fun and lose as slowly as possible, the Wizard's views are not the views to follow. You should just forget about odds in that case IMO.

To have the absolute best chance to win, skilled and knowledgeable betting is required. And risking more money is an enabling key whether you are buying the four for $25 instead of placing it for five, or adding odds, more money is key.

The point that I am trying to make is that many people fail to understand the key to having the best chance to win at the game involves more than chance. You have to know stuff about betting.

And those who do know how to bet make far too many assumptions about the skill of others who are trying to do the same. The fact is, craps is not exactly a game that makes a ton of money from smart betters.

The responses you see from folks on this thread that say there is no skill to the game is evidence of my suggestion that people fail to understand these things.

Let's concede for a moment that betting wisely, regardless of the game, is a skill in and of itself. Knowing that the dealer is likely to bust when they're showing a 6, that the twitchy guy a the other end of the table is holding a big hand, that the Big 6/8 is a fool's wager, and that roulette is just expensive entertainment is in fact a "skill" that one can develop and use.

Great. Knowing how to bet is one skill that can be useful in the casino. The point goes to Ahigh.

That skill does not change the nature of the games involved. The dice are random. The shuffle & deal are random. The roulette wheel is random. These are games of chance, and no amount of betting skill can change that.

The best you can hope for is to maximize your chances by betting wisely. Whether that means learning blackjack betting strategy, counting cards, always betting max odds or avoiding roulette altogether is probably debatable. But even the best card counter is still crossing their fingers that the cards they know are in the deck come out in an order that works for them. The best poker players just minimize their losses by folding when they think the other guy is holding four aces.

The only possible way to turn craps into an actual game of skill is to argue that the dice are not random but that the results of the roll are significantly determined by the skill of the shooter. That an unskilled or uncaring shooter gets random results seems widely accepted. The point of contention is whether or not there even is such a thing as a skilled shooter.

Quote: TerribleTom

The point of contention is whether or not there even is such a thing as a skilled shooter.

I think Aaron is arguing that knowing "how" to bet at craps, i.e. making bets with a low HA such as line bets with odds, or perhaps placing six and eight, as opposed to betting high HA bets such as big red or any craps should be considered a "skill."

I suppose that one could say that, but to me that seems to be having greater "understanding of the game" than "skill."

It boils down to how one defines "skill" in the context of casino gaming.

"how to bet" is considered Skilled betting in Craps????

The only smart bet is the one that pays... I see 'smart' betters all the time in the casino.... And they are usually doing 4 things... Pulling more money out of their wallet, At the ATM machine, Asking for a marker, or Leaving....

Another good one, a young couple walks up, virgins to the table. The lady looks at my bets and says, "wow he has a lot of money on 5, lets put it there"...... She did well.....Where in the hell was the skill????



Over analyzed..... Thats the table... Craps is like the girl at the bar winking... And while you're trying to figure out whether she has something in her eye, The other guy has jumped in and is going for the kill....

Quote: TheWolf713

"how to bet" is considered Skilled betting in Craps????

It does, in fact, require skill in order to bet in the game of craps. I'm not sure why you need to ask, but the answer is yes.

Quote: TheWolf713

The only smart bet is the one that pays...

I'm pretty sure that this incorrect notion is extremely prevalent. But if you'll let me nitpick a little bit, if you only bet the bet that always pays, first off, it's no longer a bet. Second off, if there's a house edge, it will pay less than the bet amount on average, and you will still lose if you keep playing that way.

Many people incorrectly believe that smart betting is betting on something that is certain to pay.

Certainty of payment is nothing more than certainty of losing a portion of your bet.

Your sentiment is coincident with thoughts of many losers.

It's also possible you are victim of "post facto definiteness" if you believe things such as "smart betting is knowing that if you had bet something that paid off it would have paid off still."

There is an entire class of logic of "missing out" on paying bets after observing the resolution that is completely a fallacy if you are interested to read up.

Quote: Ahigh

It does, in fact, require skill in order to bet in the game of craps. I'm not sure why you need to ask, but the answer is yes.



I'm pretty sure that this incorrect notion is extremely prevalent. But if you'll let me nitpick a little bit, if you only bet the bet that always pays, first off, it's no longer a bet. Second off, if there's a house edge, it will pay less than the bet amount.

Many people incorrectly believe that smart betting is betting on something that is certain to pay.

Certainty of payment is nothing more than certainty of losing a portion of your bet.

Your sentiment is coincident with thoughts of many losers.

It's also possible you are victim of "post facto definiteness" if you believe things such as "smart betting is knowing that if you had bet something that paid off it would have paid off still."

There is an entire class of logic of "missing out" on paying bets after observing the resolution that is completely a fallacy if you are interested to read up.

@Ahigh

Ok lets try this, On my last session Wednesday, I left with +3600 bucks.... I never thought once about if the bet "paid less", or "the house edge is...." It did not matter, I played the table. No super shooters, just good sound play that was reflective of the table..

Your first video for beginners is a video about Superstitions..... I want you to think about that real hard for a second......
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3OBsJTeiAw&feature=player_embedded#at=47


With that statement, You have told me everything I need to know about your play to "KNOW" about your logic and reason on a Craps table....

Some novice players as yourself tend to think about the variance so much during their play, that they can never make the sound decisions to leave as a winner...I press when you would probably tell them to pull back. When you say "you should never place a 9" I press it to the Sky. While you're teaching a person about the proper place to put their drink (I don't know how the in the hell that correlates with your play, by the way) , I have turned my bets off and Im at the door.


If you want to help a newbie out by giving him a superstition about sevens and making them beLIEve that there are "skilled bets", I guess I cant stop you..

But I will say to those newbies... Learn the math of the Game, Systems are for losers..... Skilled betting=Fat free Bacon.....Makes no sense, I know....

You are running a Monte Carlo Algorithm with your mind if you continue to believe this Skilled betting hoopla...

The faster you get away from it, the better.
Much respect.

Quote: TheWolf713

@Ahigh

Ok lets try this, On my last session Wednesday, I left with +3600 bucks.... I never thought once about if the bet "paid less", or "the house edge is...." It did not matter, I played the table. No super shooters, just good sound play that was reflective of the table..

Your first video for beginners is a video about Superstitions..... I want you to think about that real hard for a second......


With that statement, You have told me everything I need to know about your play to "KNOW" about your logic and reason on a Craps table....

Some novice players as yourself tend to think about the variance so much during their play, that they can never make the sound decisions to leave as a winner...I press when you would probably tell them to pull back. When you say "you should never place a 9" I press it to the Sky. While you're teaching a person about the proper place to put their drink (I don't know how the in the hell that correlates with your play, by the way) , I have turned my bets off and Im at the door.


If you want to help a newbie out by giving him a superstition about sevens and making them beLIEve that there are "skilled bets", I guess I cant stop you..

But I will say to those newbies... Learn the math of the Game, Systems are for losers..... Skilled betting=Fat free Bacon.....Makes no sense, I know....

You are running a Monte Carlo Algorithm with your mind if you continue to believe this Skilled betting hoopla...

The faster you get away from it, the better.
Much respect.

Let me just quote this whole thing, but I will tell you that as soon as I got to your sentence, "Some novice players (such) as yourself" I had to stop. That's an insult, so I'm done reading.

If you honestly think that I am a novice, I apologize for interpreting this as an insult. I am not a novice player, though, and I am finding it hard to believe this could be anything but an insult.

Quote: Ahigh

Let me just quote this whole thing, but I will tell you that as soon as I got to your sentence, "Some novice players (such) as yourself" I had to stop. That's an insult, so I'm done reading.

If you honestly think that I am a novice, I do feel sorry for you. Otherwise, you're just insulting me at this point and there is no point to read further.

Ok lets say expert.... I apologize if your were offended...

But superstitions.... C'mon man.... The words Logic and Superstition. Really???

Quote: TheWolf713

Ok lets say expert.... I apologize if your were offended...

Sure no worries then.

Look, I'm only trying to help the new players. And I'm not selling a system where you always win. I'm trying to help them enjoy the game with those videos.

Not saying seven is one of the primary things that prevents a new player from getting under the crosshairs of an experienced craps player. A bad experience between a new player and an experienced player can be a bad way to start learning the game.

At tourist traps where everyone is a new player, this isn't a problem.

But if you play around players who play for big money and are superstitious and you want to enjoy the culture and entertainment value that is the game, I stand by my advice.

I apologize if you misinterpreted my advice as advice for how to generate income.

I never intended to present it that way. I intended to help the player avoid bets that have ridiculously high house edges to resolve (the put bet at 33.33%) and other mistakes that could be very costly.

That's about it. It should be really simple stuff here to have a good time without doing something stupid.

Quote: TheWolf713

Ok lets try this, On my last session Wednesday, I left with +3600 bucks.... I never thought once about if the bet "paid less", or "the house edge is...." It did not matter, I played the table. No super shooters, just good sound play that was reflective of the table..

Why does it matter how you did in one session. Are you ever going to play again? If so, does it really matter? They are all going to get added together anyway.

If the suckers lost every time they would stop coming back.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Why does it matter how you did in one session. Are you ever going to play again? If so, does it really matter? They are all going to get added together anyway.

If the suckers lost every time they would stop coming back.

You are very correct..... No argument there...

Quote: Ahigh

Sure no worries then.

Look, I'm only trying to help the new players. And I'm not selling a system where you always win. I'm trying to help them enjoy the game with those videos.

Not saying seven is one of the primary things that prevents a new player from getting under the crosshairs of an experienced craps player. A bad experience between a new player and an experienced player can be a bad way to start learning the game.

At tourist traps where everyone is a new player, this isn't a problem.

But if you play around players who play for big money and are superstitious and you want to enjoy the culture and entertainment value that is the game, I stand by my advice.

I apologize if you misinterpreted my advice as advice for how to generate income.

I never intended to present it that way. I intended to help the player avoid bets that have ridiculously high house edges to resolve (the put bet at 33.33%) and other mistakes that could be very costly.

That's about it. It should be really simple stuff here to have a good time without doing something stupid.

I can respect that..

Quote: Ahigh

https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/video-poker-+-perfect-play/id420985787?mt=8

You should have supported the Wizard and bought his video poker product.

I pretty much bought an Apple product just so I could get the Wizard's app. You can confirm that with odiousgambit.