AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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March 25th, 2013 at 11:40:48 PM permalink
Quote: 24Bingo


What it certainly doesn't do is change the edge.



Whenever there is a discussion about win goals, someone always says it doesn't change the edge of the game. No one ever said win goals change the edge of any game. But keeping to win goals afford you a chance to leave with a profit before you put it all back.

Yes, I agree that "win goals" can also limit your wins. Earlier this month I hit two royals -- one on a Thursday night at Rincon, and a second at Caesars on Saturday. Both royals came after I reached what normally would have been a win goal -- but I kept playing because I raised my "stop loss" much as a stock market investor would.

In both cases, I was on negative expectation machines. My royals didn't change the negative paytables, but they sure did put profits in my pocket. And so do smaller wins.
TheWolf713
TheWolf713
Joined: Feb 12, 2013
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March 26th, 2013 at 2:55:38 PM permalink
Quote: 24Bingo

Mathematically, it's true for everyone. It's nice to win, but keep in mind, whatever your strategy, the more likely you are to win, the more you'll lose when you finally do. Sure, if you'd kept to your goal this time, you'd have won, but what if instead of exceeding your goal, your goal had been a tiny bit higher? Whatever it is, the protection afforded comes at a price.

What it certainly doesn't do is change the edge.



I appreciate your replies.....

I am totally aware of the edge of the house edge in the game. But I'm talking about the very last proposition bet on the craps table.. The bet that most players don't even see... It's The bet that you can't leave with the money... And the odds on every player is like a little light over their head... It's also on the screen when you buy in... They are only clocking your time...

In asymmetric warfare the big money (casino) doesn't matter.. Limited time exsposure, on high payoff targets is what wins.. I know what I'm saying is not as fancy as some super sofware data chart, but I wouldn't expect to find any math on the time aspect of craps, because it's obviously the most important element in the game.. Their game plan is to keep you playing..they even make you play it (comps)... Of course they won't tell you that you have an advantage by limiting expsosure..

I can't tell you how many times I've seen an old timer be up 3 grand and put it right back... And then the next words out of his mouth, with anger, is "give me a dam comp meal for me and wife!!"

From the comments, It seems some people want to lose just to be mathematically correct.

I don't expect people to agree with this... Because This might get them a few wins, and the we know the "math" doesn't agree with that!


When you are 2500 dollars up which one of these words is on your mind... (more) or (enough)???
"I'm a DO'er and you my friend, are a Don'ter" -Mark Walberg pain and Gain
24Bingo
24Bingo
Joined: Jul 4, 2012
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March 26th, 2013 at 3:06:03 PM permalink
The fact that individual players will lose over time is a bug, not a feature. What they care about isn't whether you leave with "their" money or not, but whether someone gives them money to give out. The reason they want to keep you there isn't to suck you dry, but to keep up the volume of play. And while you may be proud of your discipline for walking away up - and by all means enjoy your win - keep in mind that if you ever, ever, plan to go back into a casino, it will be as if you'd never left. "A win is a loan."

Quote: AlanMendelson

No one ever said win goals change the edge of any game.



Ahem:

Quote: TheWolf713

The one thing that most Players will agree on about craps is over TIME, craps is a negative expectation game..

...

2) What is the house edge on a player who has the POWER to leave??

The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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March 26th, 2013 at 3:35:36 PM permalink
Quote: 24Bingo

The reason they want to keep you there isn't to suck you dry, but to keep up the volume of play



Its both. The longer you play, the longer the edge
has to work on you. Sure they want all your money,
now or next time. Whats the difference.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
Joined: Jan 12, 2013
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March 26th, 2013 at 3:38:48 PM permalink
how about the power of NOT going?
Each day is better than the next
Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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March 26th, 2013 at 3:51:52 PM permalink
power of GREYSKULL?

EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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March 26th, 2013 at 4:03:53 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

power of GREYSKULL?



With him and the Masked Man its nothing but fun
fun fun at Ahigh's 'parties'..
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
TheWolf713
TheWolf713
Joined: Feb 12, 2013
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March 26th, 2013 at 5:42:53 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: Ahigh

power of GREYSKULL?



With him and the Masked Man its nothing but fun
fun fun at Ahigh's 'parties'..





2 more super heroes on the ahigh show an we'll have a Marvel vs. DC superfriends show
"I'm a DO'er and you my friend, are a Don'ter" -Mark Walberg pain and Gain
24Bingo
24Bingo
Joined: Jul 4, 2012
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March 26th, 2013 at 7:29:53 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Its both. The longer you play, the longer the edge
has to work on you. Sure they want all your money,
now or next time. Whats the difference.



The difference is they don't want your money. They just want money. They're equally happy with a thousand players making ten bets and one making ten thousand; it's just that if they could get the whole thousand making ten thousand bets, all the better.

They don't want everyone to lose, since without winners, there's not much incentive to come. That's sort of why jackpots exist, to give a lucky few enough money that they'll probably stay ahead for some time. It's just that there's no way to ensure a win over all patrons without ensuring a win over a sufficiently prodigal patron's lifetime.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
  • Threads: 434
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March 26th, 2013 at 7:45:20 PM permalink
Quote: 24Bingo

The difference is they don't want your money.



Sure they do. Its all comes down to the individual
player and its HIS money they want. Once again
my fave quote from Benny Binion: "Our job isn't
done until the players last check to us bounces."
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal

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