teddys
teddys
Joined: Nov 14, 2009
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March 25th, 2013 at 12:29:57 AM permalink
Psychology is an important part of it. You should leave if you feel like you are going on tilt or can no longer make proper, informed decisions. Leaving after a jackpot is often a good move, too. (Although many times I've continued playing after hitting a JP. How else could one get 2 royals in 35 minutes? :) )
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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March 25th, 2013 at 6:32:18 AM permalink
One thing about leaving a winner is if you come back during another month and lose them, you're often better off for offers than if you stayed and played them back the month before.
I am a robot.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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March 25th, 2013 at 6:40:53 AM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
24Bingo
24Bingo
Joined: Jul 4, 2012
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March 25th, 2013 at 9:48:49 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Mathematically that's correct... if you're a professional gambler. But I'm a recreational gambler, so I truly value leaving with a win and enjoying it.



Mathematically, it's true for everyone. It's nice to win, but keep in mind, whatever your strategy, the more likely you are to win, the more you'll lose when you finally do. Sure, if you'd kept to your goal this time, you'd have won, but what if instead of exceeding your goal, your goal had been a tiny bit higher? Whatever it is, the protection afforded comes at a price.

What it certainly doesn't do is change the edge.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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March 25th, 2013 at 2:07:03 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

At my highest point I had about $2800. I should have gone home... but I thought about "the math" and reasoned "it makes no sense to go home... the royal could just as easily happen on the next play."



Thats the greed the casino depends on. The coolest
cucumber of a player is my sister in law. If she gets
$75 ahead, she quits. She says she likes having $75
and doesn't want to risk losing it with another spin.

Casinos hate her and have contracts out on her life..
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
24Bingo
24Bingo
Joined: Jul 4, 2012
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March 25th, 2013 at 4:18:29 PM permalink
(They don't care.)

(They're probably not huge fans of her low volume, but they don't need her to lose every time, as long as she, taken with similar bettors, is losing overall.)

(And she is.)
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
TheWolf713
TheWolf713
Joined: Feb 12, 2013
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March 25th, 2013 at 4:46:25 PM permalink
Quote: 24Bingo

(They don't care.)

(They're probably not huge fans of her low volume, but they don't need her to lose every time, as long as she, taken with similar bettors, is losing overall.)

(And she is.)



So everyone is a lifetime loser.... Come on man.... Close the theoretical book and come into a casino..

You know whats funny about "negative expectation", its nothing more than a slope on a chart.... All it takes is someone to go on a tangent a few times and it becomes just another line on a graph... Do buy too much into the math... It's just as wrong as buying into DI..

A double amputee can run... Higgs boson (nothingness and anti-matter) exists... You might not ever meet a lifetime winner, but it won't be because he doesn't exist, it will be because he doesn't hang around at the casinos..
"I'm a DO'er and you my friend, are a Don'ter" -Mark Walberg pain and Gain
Boney526
Boney526
Joined: Sep 25, 2011
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March 25th, 2013 at 7:22:32 PM permalink
II'm sorry I'm confused (by your statement) that seems to be saying that we buy too much into the math?

What else are we supposed to "buy into." The fact is the math is accurate. Negative expectation is just that.... And nobody said that everybody is a lifetime loser playing -EV games. Say you go bet a dollar on red on roulette, and it wins. That's very possible. In fact, there's an 18/38 chance that your a life time winner! But that's only if you never play again. The more you play negative expectation games, the more likely you are to be a lifetime loser.

That's what the math tells us, and how many gamblers do you know that play once and never again? And I don't mean a specific game. I'm talking go gamble once and never gamble again. And even if they did, they'd still be more likely to lose than to win.

But the opposite is true of positive expectation games. Take me, as an example. So far, this year, I think ALL of my gambling has been AP (aside from the ver rare lottery ticket - but I never consider that gambling even if it is, b/c it's so rare that I buy one and is so cheap anyway.) I've bought into .25/.50 poker games.... approximately 20 times, with an average of maybe 5 hours of play each time. I've won about 1000 Big blinds at those stakes. I think the players at my 1/2 game were way weaker than at my .25/.50, but I've only played there.... 4 times, averaging about 3-4 hours of play each time. I'm down around 350 BB at that game. So overall, I think I'm playing at a relatively big edge. And if I had played in the 1/2 game many more times, I'd be way more likely to be ahead. Overall, as you can see by the math, I'm about about 500 dollars at .25/50 and down about 700 at 1/2, putting me at a loss for the year. Of course, that really doesn't mean much, b/c my volume of play is pretty ridiculously low. And ANYTHING can occur in the short run.

Obviously, I'm up in EV but that doesn't mean I'm up in actual dollars. I see your point, but any good player knows that it's all about volume. Losing 350 BB over the course of maybe 12 hours of poker play is not outside the norm. That's only about 400-500 hands! And I play pretty loose aggressive, I could say my STD DEV is probably around 120 BB/100 hands, and my EV is probably around 8-12 BB/100. So my play in that game may be two STD DEV off, but that will not last forever.


So to answer your question.... and to get at what you're saying. Setting a stop loss in a negative expectation game (like craps) does improve your EV, but only in the same sense that NEVER playing would improve your EV compared to playing. It doesn't affect the house edge. The only reason it affects EV is b/c in essence, EV is "add-able." If you take a 1 dollar bet with an EV of .99% your value is expected to be -$.01. Play it 100 times? Your EV is now -$1.

EV is simply an AVERAGE. Anybody CAN, and many people will, end up outside of their EV. Keep playing, though, and you're VERY likely to be VERY close to it.






TL;DR

Play at an edge? Play as much volume as possible! To get at what your point is, that's the point for every AP. The very reason you would limit your play is the reason an AP want to play limitless amounts without a loss. The longer you play, the more likely you are to lose. The longer an AP plays, the more likely he or she is to win.

Play against an edge? Play for fun, limit volume, set stop wins/losses only if losing money back after winning it would ruin your day, or if you have more fun with them. Gambling against an edge should ALWAYS be considered an activity someone does for FUN.
Lexinger
Lexinger
Joined: Feb 21, 2013
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March 25th, 2013 at 7:46:55 PM permalink
Quote: Boney526

Gambling against an edge should ALWAYS be considered an activity someone does for FUN.


It's the power of not starting and re-starting. All else soon leads again and again to such similar problematic stuff found in about 99.999% of the gambling talk. There is just no way to properly handle trouble.
Those who can, do; those who can't, teach. But those who confuse the two... they wind up on the internet.
24Bingo
24Bingo
Joined: Jul 4, 2012
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March 25th, 2013 at 10:38:26 PM permalink
Quote: TheWolf713

So everyone is a lifetime loser.... Come on man.... Close the theoretical book and come into a casino..



Not necessarily. It depends how much you bet, on what, and how often. But the casinos, except the wicked high-end ones, don't charge a penny; that should be a hint. Even if you're ahead all your life, even if you die at a hundred, taken with similar bettors, you're one of a class of losers. You're just one of the ones who got lucky.

I go two or three times a month, but I spend most of my time downstairs. (Honestly, probably playing a losing game, but I've been lucky.)

Quote: TheWolf713

You know whats funny about "negative expectation", its nothing more than a slope on a chart.... All it takes is someone to go on a tangent a few times and it becomes just another line on a graph... Do buy too much into the math... It's just as wrong as buying into DI..



And yet, it's that line on a graph that's an entire industry's whole business model. You might get lucky. You might stay lucky all your life. But you've just been lucky. "The power of leaving," like Martingaling, purchases (albeit slightly less expensively) many small wins for a few large losses, that's all. The house edge, as per your original question, is exactly the same.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.

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