VegasDiceController
Joined: Dec 18, 2011
• Posts: 33
February 19th, 2013 at 3:21:41 AM permalink
I want to ask you guys about Progressions. I've been playing Craps a lot of years and have seen guys use different Progressions for Field Play, Pass/DP, come.DC etc.

Assuming you have a winning strategy that is over 50%, a Progression could get you to your win goal quicker as well take your bankroll. I have seen but forgot how Tiered progression works and #used to achieve diff betting Levels. Example. ... Lose 3 units , so now go to Level 2 of progression until on plus side and resume Level 1. If lose on Lev 2 , go to Level 3 etc

Progressions that have seemed to work for some betting Models:

Martingale: 1.2,4,8. 15u risk. Need 100u Bankroll to use this

D'lamerant : (sp) 1,1,1,-1,1,1. You bet the 2 outside #'s. so 1st bet is a 1 and 1 =2. 2u. If win cross off 2 outside 1's if lose add a 2 to your count. So new count looks like this (1,1,1-1,11,2) , so next bet is a 3u bet. If win cross off 2 outside number a 1 and 2 , pick up :u and next bet is 2 outside # or 2u. On winLoss win Loss you pick up 1 net unit every Loss/Win cylcle

Fibonacci: 1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21(54u). You need a \$250 u bankroll for this one but it takes 8 consecutive Losses to sink your buy in.

Count Systems. : this is where you count -1,+1. When count is negative (x) amount, you start playing until it gets back to even count. Once even then stop and wait down a negative (x) count again. This should put you on positive runs as table starts to balance out. I've seen these stay neg for a while

Positive Progression:
Simply pick a number and parlay win 1,2,3 times. Similar to Martingale but Positive. After any Loss is -1u. If going for a 2 consecutive Win. Bet 1u if win bet 2 u ..if win collect 4u and 3 net u win. Same could be done for 3 consecutive wins. Bet 1 u, if win the 2u, if win then 4u. If win you have collected 8u and 7u net win. You could Lose 4 straight bets, then W, W, W for a 3-4 overall record but +3 net units

A while back I read about tier betting where after you suffer "x" loss you move to next tier where you try and recover but instead of 1u bets It's now 2 u. If you don't recover and suffer another tier loss , you now move to 3u bets. Recover back to T2 then back to T1 eventually. This process could be over multiple sessions and days.

Any other worthy of discussion??!
http://www.trendsettercraps.com
eyerollsixes
Joined: Feb 11, 2013
• Posts: 16
February 19th, 2013 at 7:08:12 AM permalink
I just came to the table and stood next to this DP with no odds player. He played \$10, come out roll 7... He followed his loss with \$20, come out roll another 7.... he then put the rest of his chips on the DP line(\$40-60) and the roller rolled an 11. Game over. I felt pretty bad for the guy..
dwheatley
Joined: Nov 16, 2009
• Posts: 1246
February 19th, 2013 at 8:29:18 AM permalink
I've seen them all fail.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
Harley
Joined: May 13, 2012
• Posts: 119
February 19th, 2013 at 5:20:45 PM permalink
Quote: dwheatley

I've seen them all fail.

AMEN !! .... you have to adapt to the table ... go with what the table is giving you

I have seen so many GTC guys come in and bet just the 6 and 8 only to have the outside numbers show up more often {roll eyes}
.... that is simply my opinion .... Ciao, Harley ... Link = http://crapsadvantageplayers.blogspot.com/
dicesitter
Joined: Jan 17, 2013
• Posts: 1157
February 24th, 2013 at 10:06:54 PM permalink
This is a sure sign of a loser...... see a 5 bet a 5.....

Mindless dribble........ each bet on the table carries a house advantage.... pass line with odds 1.41% place 6 & 8
1.52%,,,, buy a 4 or 10 with vig paid on win 2.44% , place a 5 or 9 5% and play the field where 2-12 is paid double...it is 5.56%

for every \$100 you bet you will lose that much... period lets say you play \$25 on the field.... every 4 rolls you will
lose \$5.56 cents... its math you cant think your way out of it... then there are the Iron cross players that
bet both the 6 & 8 and 5 and the field at the same time. They not only lose 5.56% on fields over time, they also take their entire
field bet loss out of a win on the 6 & 8 increasing the house advantage on them over time.

NOw as far as GTC guys or Dice Coach guys..... if they bet the 6 & 8 and outside they reduce the house advantage as
much as possible, but if that player does not really have an edge over the dice, i dont care what group you are in your
going to lose. If your computer records indicate an advantage over the 6 , 8 and maybe even the 4 , you will be ahead.

It is not rocket science.... it is math

dicesitter.
boymimbo
Joined: Nov 12, 2009
• Posts: 5994
February 24th, 2013 at 10:19:03 PM permalink
No betting systems really work because each roll in craps is independent. Therefore, all you are doing is increasing or decreasing your EV based on the bet size.

When you talk about using a D'Alembert, Fibonacci, or Martingale, they all have their weaknesses. With Martingale, you have the unlikely but very realistic probability of going broke. With the other systems, the same is true -- you will run into the streak that kills you at some point, and the reward on the other side is a unit or two...
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
• Posts: 2769
February 25th, 2013 at 4:49:41 AM permalink
D'Alembert is an up one unit as you lose, down one as you win. Invented by the math geek of his day for European roulette, with the prison rule, for even money bets. What you described, the 1,1,1,1,1,1, is the La Bouchere', AKA cancelation system.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
• Posts: 14484
February 25th, 2013 at 7:05:56 AM permalink
Why would one want to get locked into some complex progression? Its either working well or its not. If its not working, abandon it.
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
• Posts: 5152
February 25th, 2013 at 7:57:27 AM permalink
Quote: boymimbo

No betting systems really work because each roll in craps is independent. Therefore, all you are doing is increasing or decreasing your EV based on the bet size.

Independent of previous results: ABSOLUTELY NO QUESTION.

Independent of the way that the dice are thrown: ABSOLUTELY FALSE NO QUESTION.

I think often you guys are being vague with the term "independent." People who attempt to throw the dice with a particular throw and set are not looking for results from one throw to the next (IE: same number over and over and over because they are perfect). They are looking for results that favor specific numbers in the long run.

Quote: boymimbo

When you talk about using a D'Alembert, Fibonacci, or Martingale, they all have their weaknesses. With Martingale, you have the unlikely but very realistic probability of going broke. With the other systems, the same is true -- you will run into the streak that kills you at some point, and the reward on the other side is a unit or two...

If you can create your own edge, reverse martingale is a very effective way to turn a relatively small edge into a very large profit. They don't say "double up to catch-up for nothing." They want you to bet bigger when they know they have the edge. Almost everything amounts to "please bet bigger" when it comes to dealer comments that the house encourages.

If you do have an edge, you want to bet bigger too. Parlaying your wins can exploit any edge you might have pretty quickly.

All betting systems work in the long run. Whoever has the edge wins and they win bigger because you are betting bigger with any system that increases the size of the bet.

For free bets, betting systems absolutely work with a bankroll of appropriate size (even if it's infinite).