goatcabin
goatcabin
Joined: Feb 13, 2010
  • Threads: 4
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January 16th, 2013 at 5:01:42 PM permalink
Quote: RaleighCraps

As we have all stated a hundred times, we all know where out lifetime sessions are going to end.........



No, we don't. There will be outliers who are lifetime winners.

Quote: RaleighCraps

But your questions to another poster about their goal got me thinking about a simulation I have not yet run.

If your goal is to DOUBLE your buy-in, what is the BEST way to bet to accomplish that?



Bet your entire bankroll on the pass or don't pass. You have a 49.3% chance of doubling it.

Quote: RaleighCraps

A slow grind of PL bet with odds doesn't seem likely to hit your goal.
A PL with full odds, Come bet with full odds, always working needs someone to throw A LOT of numbers, with NO 7. You could not work the odds, and hope the 7s show up as Come Out roll 7s, which would only cost you your base come bet.
I suppose the answer could be a martingale system on the DP is your best bet to DOUBLE your buy-in,

As a criteria, I suppose you could stipulate that you wanted to double up within 200 rolls (2-3 hour session).

Have you ever looked at the various bets with this criteria ?



My guess is that a table-minimum pass bet with lots and lots of odds would give you the best shot.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 1977
January 16th, 2013 at 5:07:04 PM permalink
Quote: RaleighCraps

If your goal is to DOUBLE your buy-in, what is the BEST way to bet to accomplish that?

"Bet it all on DP on craps, BUT follow these steps for a sure fire winner."
http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/11099-what-s-my-best-strategy-to-double-a-2000-bankroll/

My choice is the same.
Bold play.
One big bet does give you the best chance (highest probability) of doubling a bankroll.

But for most, no fun in it


Quote: RaleighCraps

As a criteria, I suppose you could stipulate that you wanted to double up within 200 rolls (2-3 hour session).

Have you ever looked at the various bets with this criteria ?

There have been some tables created over the years.
You can take any betting method and give it a time limit and see how it does.
All methods to exactly double a bankroll will be below a 50% chance of success.
Some way below
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
goatcabin
goatcabin
Joined: Feb 13, 2010
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January 16th, 2013 at 5:20:30 PM permalink
Quote: 7craps

I am willing to bet $1 that Alan has saved all of his simulations, he has done some really great ones over the years, and has them neatly organized and backed-up.


In your dreams!!
Just another bad bet, 7Craps!
I have a large number of WinCraps .glg files and also output from my own programs on an external hard drive, but they are not organized nor indexed.
Thanks for you high opinion, though! >:-)
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
Headlock
Headlock
Joined: Feb 9, 2010
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January 16th, 2013 at 6:58:16 PM permalink
Quote: 7craps

I happen to have a few sims for a "play until bust" scenarios
parameters
$3k bank
$10 pass, 345X odds
Buy 4/10 for $25 each with $1 vig paid on a win.
Buys and place bets not working on the come out roll.
Max session length 50,000 rolls.
2,000 sessions (yeah, should be longer)
(I have others for less rolls too)



7craps, would you please calculate the probability of busting an $8,000 bankroll, $5 PL, two $5 come bets, 10x odds on each, 12 hours of play? My guess is that the probability is very near zero.
teddys
teddys
Joined: Nov 14, 2009
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January 16th, 2013 at 8:32:54 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

The hilarious thing is that it is JUST AS HARD TO LOSE YOUR MONEY WITH A LOW EDGE BET AS IT IS TO WIN!

I disagree.

I did it.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
teddys
teddys
Joined: Nov 14, 2009
  • Threads: 150
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January 16th, 2013 at 8:41:12 PM permalink
Quote: Headlock

7craps, would you please calculate the probability of busting an $8,000 bankroll, $5 PL, two $5 come bets, 10x odds on each, 12 hours of play? My guess is that the probability is very near zero.

Nah, not near zero, but close. I estimate almost 2σ to the left. So should happen about 6% of the time. Then again, craps is not a standard normal distribution, and I'm just guessing...
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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  • Posts: 1977
January 16th, 2013 at 8:51:32 PM permalink
Quote: Headlock

7craps, would you please calculate the probability of busting an
$8,000 bankroll,
$5 PL,
two $5 come bets,
10x odds on each,
12 hours of play?
My guess is that the probability is very near zero.

I agree.
And your lucky day.

I have a sim for $5 flat bets and 10X odds and max 2 come bets for 1000 rolls and $8k Bank.
added: Checking the code for this sim it looks like the odds are not working on the come out roll.
The bust rate is 0.0% (100k sessions)
and to lose $4000 (lose 50%) is about 1%
and to lose $3000 or more about 4.3%
48.5% chance of ending even or ahead.
EV: -$53
SD: 1710

so the bust rate is about
1.4622E-06 or
1 in 683,899
hate to be that 1

------------------------------
To calculate this.
1000 rolls/3.375 rolls per decision = 297 pass line bets (on average)
1.413 come bets per pass line bet resolved = 297 * 1.413 = 420
420+297 = 717 total line bets (on average)
EV of about -$51

To calculate the SD is more challenging.
I use the sim data
I also show a SD of $1447 for 717 individual bets. But the 3 line bets do resolve at different times.
A $1710 SD comes from 1000 such individual bets.(the number of rolls)
Leave it at that for now
-------------------------------

I also have a sim for $10 flat bets and 10X odds and max 2 come bets for 1000 rolls and $8k Bank.
The bust rate is 1.6% and to
lose $4000 (lose 50%) is about 13%
and to lose $3000 or more about 20%
48.36% chance of ending even or ahead.

I even added some data to one of your Blogs.
I will update it after my work week.

Good Luck
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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January 17th, 2013 at 10:11:00 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

The hilarious thing is that it is JUST AS HARD TO LOSE YOUR MONEY WITH A LOW EDGE BET AS IT IS TO WIN!


Quote: teddys

I disagree.

I did it.

But with a low edge (ev) and a high variance bet like teddys

When one really over bets a bankroll, it is quite easy or at least your chances of busting are very high

http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/12558-really-blew-out-my-bankroll/9/#post208658

Good Luck
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
CrapsForever
CrapsForever
Joined: Mar 6, 2012
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January 17th, 2013 at 11:19:07 AM permalink
What is the probability of a player losing $30,000 in 15 hours betting $25 Pass Line with $125 Odds with Continuous $25 Come Bets with $125 Odds?
Craps is the most "Jekyll and Hyde" casino game ever invented!
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
  • Threads: 300
  • Posts: 8260
January 17th, 2013 at 11:33:57 AM permalink
Quote: CrapsForever

What is the probability of a player losing $30,000 in 15 hours betting $25 Pass Line with $125 Odds with Continuous $25 Come Bets with $125 Odds?



My 2 cents.

Pretty soon you're working with $450 up all the time. You certainly need $5k in my experience. I would say $10k would a safe bankroll for a session of 2-4 hours, so losing $30k in 15 hrs is certainly do-able. Having to go with my gut, I'd say only about 5% chance it'd go to zero.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder

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