Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
• Posts: 5114
August 26th, 2012 at 8:08:24 AM permalink
Oops..
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
• Posts: 1977
August 26th, 2012 at 11:57:59 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

But just going to max odds on a six or an eight. The second bet is free, but you already lost 9.09% of your first bet when you make the second bet.

This is NOT what the math says and my billions of perfectly coded computer simulation have shown.

A flat out WRONG 100% statement you have posted.

The flat bet ALWAYS has a 7/495 house edge.
Not 9.09%.
The odds bet always has a 0% house edge.
but you already lost 1.414% of your first bet when you make the second bet.

You can not change that with your Enron Accounting tricks.
Another math challenged individual.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
TheLion
Joined: Aug 19, 2012
• Posts: 2
August 26th, 2012 at 4:36:23 PM permalink
Okay lets change the wording around on this question. The new revised question is.
What is the probability of someone rolling 17 fours or 18 tens in one hand of craps?
In about 48 rolls of the dice.
ahiromu
Joined: Jan 15, 2010
• Posts: 2101
August 26th, 2012 at 6:22:49 PM permalink
I just wanted to say that I hate it when dealers use extreme variance (three 12's in a row) to point out the retarded bets. I know calling things "retarded" isn't politically correct, but betting on a hop bet that pays 29:1 with a HE of 16.67% is, in fact, retarded and the pit should be ashamed they aren't paying 30:1 at least.

Also, I taught my friend the beginnings of craps. He rolled the dice, both of which went flying about a foot above the wall and hit some poor people playing mini-bacc.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
• Posts: 5114
August 26th, 2012 at 6:38:50 PM permalink
Quote: 7craps

This is NOT what the math says and my billions of perfectly coded computer simulation have shown.

A flat out WRONG 100% statement you have posted.

The flat bet ALWAYS has a -7/495 house edge.
Not 9.09%.
The odds bet always has a 0% house edge.
but you already lost 1.414% of your first bet when you make the second bet.

You can not change that with your Enron Accounting tricks.
Another math challenged individual.

The boat is getting crowded

When I make an odds bet on the 6 or 8, the edge on the passline has already gone up from 1.41% to 9.09%. The passline bet becomes a big6 big8 bet that you can't take back as soon as you roll the eight. Some people refer to it as a "put bet."

If it were still a passline bet with a 1.41% edge as you mistakenly believe it to be, the house would let you take it back.

Of course me talking to you after you blocked me with your arrogant post is even more entertaining because someone you haven't blocked will have to tell you that I wasn't wrong.

I take great offense to your posting. But I'm glad that you blocked me because I don't really care for your arrogant attitude.

Can someone with more math skills than 7-craps correct him for me on this thread?
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
• Posts: 5114
August 26th, 2012 at 6:51:22 PM permalink
Quote: TheLion

Okay lets change the wording around on this question. The new revised question is.
What is the probability of someone rolling 17 fours or 18 tens in one hand of craps?
In about 48 rolls of the dice.

The probability of rolling 17 fours before rolling a single seven is one over 3 to the power of 17.

Or about one in 129,140,163.

I could be wrong, as it appears 7 craps is the expert on this board.

The video I provided shows me rolling 6-2 five times in a row. That's 1 over 16 to the power of 5 for the chance of that happening.

Or 1 in 1,048,576

The chance of rolling any non-pair five times consecutively (instead of 6-2 specifically) is only one in 78,643. Still not very likely.

But I have it on film.

The thing about this and any other number of unlikely events is that when you start talking about betting on it. All kinds of unlikely things happen ALL THE TIME!!

Just like someone said .. the dealers see three pairs in a row, they say "that's coming up bet it" but I have NEVER seen 4 pairs in a row. It still happens one out of every 36 times three pairs in a row occurs on average.

But you know I want to say one more thing here while I have some people's ears.

I am really a little emotional about this 7 craps guy and his arrogant response to my post.

Somebody ask him what the edge on the passline bet is AFTER the point is established on a 6 or an 8 for me, would ya?

The edge changes on the passline bet after the point is established. I mean correct me if I'm wrong, and I will start making put bets on the 4 and 10. But I'm pretty sure the edge on the passline after a point is established can go up to 33.3%, RIGHT? LOL.
CrapsForever
Joined: Mar 6, 2012
• Posts: 517
August 26th, 2012 at 6:56:49 PM permalink
7 Craps simply does analysis....the rest of us on his blocked list actually play the game of Craps.
Craps is the most "Jekyll and Hyde" casino game ever invented!
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
• Posts: 5114
August 26th, 2012 at 7:01:39 PM permalink
Quote: CrapsForever

7 Craps simply does analysis....the rest of us on his blocked list actually play the game of Craps.

Yeah conflicts like this are why I generally stay off other people's craps forums.

Oh well.
CrapsForever
Joined: Mar 6, 2012
• Posts: 517
August 26th, 2012 at 7:10:36 PM permalink
I refuse to argue with anyone about Craps....We have all seen the craziest things happen on Craps tables.

I NEVER ask for proof because I have seen enough to know anything can and will happen on a Craps table.
Craps is the most "Jekyll and Hyde" casino game ever invented!
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
• Posts: 5114
August 26th, 2012 at 7:19:16 PM permalink
Yeah, I went and looked at his most recent posts where he posted some obviously false crap, and I, like a child, went back and did to him what he did to me, except that I had a reason to do it besides just the reason of being a total jerk.