RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
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August 9th, 2012 at 3:42:39 PM permalink
If I understand the arguments in a number of other threads, I think it boils down to,

"If the total bet amounts are equal, the Place/Buy bettor, over time, will lose more BR than the PL/CB"
If I have stated this incorrectly, please let me know, so I can reword it.

I agree that over a player's lifetime, that is the most likely outcome, but it is not the only possible outcome. If I was certain that was the only outcome, I would have stopped playing craps years ago. maybe ;-)

In many of the sessions I have played, I have had little success with CB. It has usually led to losses for me, even though the math says it is the best way to play. Therefore, I have 'tried' to make the point that making the CB/odds does not guarantee that the next time you play craps you will fair better than someone who is buy/place betting.

So, help me devise a fair challenge, where a Place/Buy bettor and a Come bettor can play at the same table, during the same rolls, with a wager to be settled by which bettor has the bigger BR at the end of the session.

I will meet you at the craps table. Same starting BR. Opportunity for an equal amount of bets to be wagered, during the same time frame. BR at the end of the session will determine the winner of the bet.
How do we determine the session length? Time? Number of Rolls? Number of unique shooters?

What would the rules need to look like for a fair challenge, on a $10 table (3-4-5x), vig on the win for the Buy 4,10? (If the challenge takes place in MS, then it would be vig on win for Buy 4,5,9,10)

Proposed Rules
- Both Players will make a Pass Line bet and take full odds. This is always mandatory for both players, and the amount of this bet never changes.
- The Come Bettor will place a $10 CB at every opportunity, and take full odds each time.
- The Place bettor will Place the 6/8 for $60, 5/9 for $50, and Buy the 4/10 for $35.
- Each bettor can take down their bets at any time, following craps rules (ie. base CB cannot be taken down)
- Each bettor can work their bets on the Come Out roll.

Pressing is a key component of the Place/Buy play. How do we create rules that keeps the potential total amount bet the same?
In the rule below, I am allowing the Place/Buy to go up what would be a $5 CB, with full odds, each time a number gets hit. This is not the way I would press, but I think it would be okay for this challenge.

- Each time a number has been hit, the Place Bettor can press their bet ( $20 on the 4/10, $25 on the 5/9, $30 on the 6/8).

But how do we allow the CB to be pressed? Obviously, it can only be pressed after the original CB for that number has been paid once, but that means the new $10 CB has already been placed. We could allow the CB player to increase the bet via a $5 w odds PUT bet, but that would negate the come out roll advantage of that extra $5. Allowing a CB of $15 before every CB number has been hit at least once, would potentially allow the CB to have a higher bet amount , since they could be putting up a $15 CB for the first time on a number that had not previously been hit.

I would not consider allowing the Come bettor to increase their bet at any time to be a fair rule, as a single $100 CB with odds would decide the outcome.

Is there any way to allow for pressing, yet keep the total amount wagered to be equal?
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
RonC
RonC
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August 9th, 2012 at 4:59:13 PM permalink
I enjoy the passion with which you seem to enjoy craps--it is my favorite game.

This challenge could be interesting, but the result won't mean a whole lot. If the table goes a certain way, the results would be slanted that way. What if there were a tremendous amount of 11's along with 7's hitting at the "right" time? The pass line bettor could be making money when you're on the sidelines.

To allow for pressing, you could find a 10x or more table and restrict the starting odds to 345x but allow pressing after that.

I'll look for the results of this challenge, if it happens, but it'll mostly be just another story about experiences at the craps table.
RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
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August 9th, 2012 at 5:54:43 PM permalink
Quote: RonC

This challenge could be interesting, but the result won't mean a whole lot. If the table goes a certain way, the results would be slanted that way. What if there were a tremendous amount of 11's along with 7's hitting at the "right" time? The pass line bettor could be making money when you're on the sidelines.

To allow for pressing, you could find a 10x or more table and restrict the starting odds to 345x but allow pressing after that.

I'll look for the results of this challenge, if it happens, but it'll mostly be just another story about experiences at the craps table.



You are hitting on precisely my point.
Any time I make an example of how the place/buy bet could be a benefit, I get accused of cherry picking my example, and get ripped for it. I'm a big boy. I understand why that happens. Sure, a number of 11's could roll, when a point is ON, and I get crushed, $10 at a time. Of course, a number of 2,3,12 could roll too, and hurt the CB. Or, a number of shooters could go PSO, killing me. Then again, a number of shooters could throw single box numbers, and never repeat (which is generally my experience, and perhaps teddys based on his post), in which case I would benefit greatly. Holy cow, sounds like a real craps game! :-)

So, I say let's take it to a live game, with a separate wager riding on the outcome. It should be a great time! It certainly will be a lot of fun, regardless of whether I win or lose the wager, and you're right, it will make a great story.

MustangSally did key me into a certain point though. I was looking at units won, but was not really accounting to the fact that I generally was putting more money at risk during that same time. So somehow that has to be accounted for to make it a fair wager.

And that is the hard part of creating this challenge. How to structure it to keep the amount wagered equal.


Quote: RonC

To allow for pressing, you could find a 10x or more table and restrict the starting odds to 345x but allow pressing after that.



Interesting idea, but I have two thoughts:
1. This would only account for basically the first press by the Place/Buy bettor
2. Allowing the CB to increase their bets with a 'free' odds bet would skew the bet a bit, since the base come bet, paying 1:1 would remain low.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
CrapsForever
CrapsForever
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August 20th, 2012 at 6:31:51 PM permalink
Played close to 40 hours of Live Craps in 3 days. Played Come versus Place Bettors and compared the two. On monster rolls, Place Bettors made a KILLING. The biggest part of why I HATE Come Bets is it invites lots of Horn/Any Craps Bets during the "ON" cycle of the game when shooters keep repeating 2,3,12's. It also totally compromises the landing zone for "lucky" Craps shooters trying to avoid the Pass Line, Odds and Come Bets chips.

Nothing a "lucky" shooter likes better than having ZERO chips in his/her landing zone. This is why I usually identify a "lucky" shooter and play directly in the spot in front of his landing zone. I "protect" his landing zone by not having Come Bets, Pass Line Bets or Odds. I make Place Bets; giving up a higher House Edge but the longer roll by the "lucky" Dice thrower is worth it.
Craps is the most "Jekyll and Hyde" casino game ever invented!
ahiromu
ahiromu
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August 20th, 2012 at 7:11:07 PM permalink
I had an a-hole shooter ask me to move my passline bet. It took me a minute to realize what was going on, nobody on my side of the table understood what he was talking about.

In my passive aggressive nature, I decided to stand directly in his way and took away his line of sight. He seven'd out pretty quickly. The only time I was happy to lose money at the craps table.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
CrapsForever
CrapsForever
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August 20th, 2012 at 7:25:29 PM permalink
Quote: ahiromu

I had an a-hole shooter ask me to move my passline bet. It took me a minute to realize what was going on, nobody on my side of the table understood what he was talking about.



I had the same thing happen to me years ago and after making boatloads of money, I realized that it's important to a lot of shooters. I ALWAYS listen to shooters requests. On a second MONSTER roll this past weekend, the shooter 7'ed out when his Dice hit the Come Bet by this woman who kept on making Late Come Bets. The shooter was very upset!
Craps is the most "Jekyll and Hyde" casino game ever invented!
ahiromu
ahiromu
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August 20th, 2012 at 7:47:47 PM permalink
On a similar line of messing with the shooter. I had the dice in my hands on a come out roll and someone on the opposite side of the table laid their bet down around the come bet area. After getting scolded (nicely, nobody was a dick) what did he do? He tried to pick up said come bet $. Again, all this happened while I was holding the dice. At that point, you've lost the respect of EVERYONE at the table.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
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August 20th, 2012 at 8:35:46 PM permalink
Quote: CrapsForever

Played close to 40 hours of Live Craps in 3 days. Played Come versus Place Bettors and compared the two. On monster rolls, Place Bettors made a KILLING. The biggest part of why I HATE Come Bets is it invites lots of Horn/Any Craps Bets during the "ON" cycle of the game when shooters keep repeating 2,3,12's. It also totally compromises the landing zone for "lucky" Craps shooters trying to avoid the Pass Line, Odds and Come Bets chips.

Nothing a "lucky" shooter likes better than having ZERO chips in his/her landing zone. This is why I usually identify a "lucky" shooter and play directly in the spot in front of his landing zone. I "protect" his landing zone by not having Come Bets, Pass Line Bets or Odds. I make Place Bets; giving up a higher House Edge but the longer roll by the "lucky" Dice thrower is worth it.



That is interesting, but it is also what I expect. If the Come Bettor places all the numbers initially, so that the first time the number is rolled, the CB is getting paid , and then uses that money as odds, then I would expect the CB and the Place bettor to come out the same (assuming equal amounts are being played). But, therein lies the difference! In my experience, I see the Place bettors pressing their bets, putting much more money into play. The Come Bettors may press their CB, and odds, but most of the time they just keep playing the same amount. So, if the 7 out takes a while, the Place bettor has gained some serious rack, but also loses a boatload of money left on the table at the 7-out.

I have decided the Come Bet strategy works best overall, as long as the Come Bettor is not Placing anything across. The CB loses a lot less on those shooters who only make 0 or 1 point, and throw 1 box number. And if you get that one shooter that throws the same box number 3x and then 7 outs, the Come Bettor makes out much better than the Place Bettor. While they both win almost the same amount on the 3 box numbers, the Place bettor has a much bigger loss on the 7 out.

That is the piece that I was missing for the longest time. I was looking at the money won (especially on the good to monster rolls) and the Place bettor absolutely kills the Come Bettor (as you also noted). But all the other shooters results in a bigger loss for the Place bettor, and thus leads to a higher chance of a greater loss.

But, I don't play craps for 6 hours hoping to break even. I am looking to win 3 or 4k, so I am willing to play the higher risk game. Give me 2 good rolls in that time, and I will hit my win goal.

Which leads me to the title of this thread.
I would be surprised if any of the staunch Come Bet strategists would be willing to put up their money for this challenge. One good shooter and the Place bettor would win the challenge going away.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
odiousgambit
odiousgambit 
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August 21st, 2012 at 12:30:32 AM permalink
Quote: RaleighCraps

{losing} a boatload of money left on the table at the 7-out.



Piling up that boatload and losing it is the bane of the Come bettor.

When I have made money with Come bets it has exclusively been when the money failed to pile up but instead only one or two numbers are covered. The shooter hits a number and I notice I have to replace it, and this happens again and again.

Tough duty, having to make the Come bet again when the damn shooter keeps rolling the number !! [g]
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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August 21st, 2012 at 2:18:13 AM permalink
The point of Pressing a Place Bet is that you are pressing it with what is often viewed as "the casino's money" hoping for continued hits and continued presses until you take it down just before a seven rolls. Its been paying off with excitement and the risk of loss and can pay off big with continued luck.

In reality its just as much "your" money as if you increase your Come Bet.

Its a matter of waiting for a humungous roll wherein six and eight keep hitting but that shooter somehow stays away from Seven. Its not much fun on a choppy Point Seven Out table.

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