Question about winning percentage...

Hi there... first of all thanks for the help... so I'm a newbie at BJ and I want to know if I'm right about some stuff

Pretty much I want to know if a casino can tell if I'm using a system by looking at my wagers and win/loosed money...

So here it is.. what I understand...

If the house edge is let's say 1%, and If I bet on the long run say.. $100 000, based on the house edge they should get a winning of $1000, but what if at the end I end up say 15% or 20% above the house.. meaning I won $15000 or $20000.

What % of winning vs wager will casinos consider normal or abnormal before they start looking at me... is there a way or a site where I can read about this?

Thanks for the help and I hope I made my self clear... like I said I'm a newbie, and sorry if this has been answered before I did not know how to search for it.

Thanks.

House edges only apply to the VERY LONG RUN - like a lifetime session. And even then, it's not exact.

Some people win. That alone is not a signal that a casino should be concerned.

They DO have methods to detect if the player is a card counter.

Quite honestly, if all you have is a betting system, the casino would welcome you. As a general rule, systems don't work, which is why casinos love systems players.

Hey thanks, for the reply... so I kinda get what you are saying.. do you know what methods they use and if they have like percentages that will flag a player for as suspicious...?

I guess what I mean is there a Threshold that they will use to say, OK above 10% winnings is odd and we need to review this game play?

Thanks again.

Quote: lbrenes

.. do you know what methods they use and if they have like percentages that will flag a player for as suspicious...?

They'll suspect you of counting if you're winning, even if you're not counting.

So they don't look at a certain % of winnings to flag a player (by the way I'm talking about live dealer online casinos sorry I forgot that) and most likely they will look at the bet trend..? did I got that right?

The casino will look at your play based on the amount bet and your strategy. If you are varying bets widely they will take a very close look at you to see if you are counting. If you are winning alot they will take a close look at you. I doubt the casino cares about a counter who bets reds. Green betters they'll look at if they are varying bets and winning. Black bettors and above, they'll look at, all of the time.

Quote: lbrenes

Pretty much I want to know if a casino can tell if I'm using a system by looking at my wagers and win/lost money...

If you tell them you intend to use a system and give them an indication of how much money you will be bringing with you, they will be happy to send a limousine to pick you up at the airport and might even pay your airfare for you. Casinos love players with a system. Its them card counters that they hate. And much of that is irrational, much isn't.

What they look for most is Betting Pattern. If you suddenly go from "x" to "3x or higher" they may start to pay attention to you. If they also notice that you tend to make these larger bets when the count is in your advantage, they will start to really pay attention to you. If they see bet variation but note it takes place when the count is against you they will relax a bit. If you go from 10.00 to 25.00 or more they take note. If you bet consistently at 100.00 a hand, they relax. Their first "trigger" is bet variation.

Some casinos are "sweat the money joints"... they don't like winners. Some places will even give heat or eject card counters who went from five dollars to twenty dollars. Most casinos look at people who can hurt them. Bet 25.00 for a few hands and then switch to a 100.00 and they decide to take a look at you. A floorman might come out and start chatting with you. Sort of make you lose your count or something.

If they see you winning, that is okay.

They watch for suspicious things: sitting too close to someone, no interest in any passing "scenery", arms held in awkward position, etc. but they pay most attention to bet size variations. "Chips Play" will be called out by the dealer if you've suddenly increased your bet. That means: Floorman, ... get over here and open your eyes. He will. If after a while he is suspicious, he will phone upstairs for a Count Comparison. They go back and play the tape of your bets while they also count the deck down. If they see your variations are in synch with the count, they are going to have a serious little game with you for awhile and if you don't quietly slink away, they will have someone come out and tell you to play anything you would like to in the casino but not blackjack.

Quote: FleaStiff

If you tell them you intend to use a system and give them an indication of how much money you will be bringing with you, they will be happy to send a limousine to pick you up at the airport and might even pay your airfare for you.

Are you having a flashback? Casinos don't do that anymore, as far as I know. Especially now. They did it all the time in the 80's and 90's, even my mothers husband got a free ride to give all the money back.

Quote: EvenBob

Are you having a flashback? Casinos don't do that anymore, as far as I know. Especially now. They did it all the time in the 80's and 90's, even my mothers husband got a free ride to give all the money back.

The two Connecticut casinos have limos running 24/7 covering all of New England, New York, New Jersey and even points beyond. They both have large fleets and still have to contract out to private companies on busy weekends. A friend of mine has been driving for one of these casinos for years and he recently drove two high rollers to Atlantic City of all places.

So what I make out of this is that there is no winning % threshold that once you are above it they will flag you for review, like a standard for all casinos..., and most likely the first thing they will look at will be if the bet changes is in sync with the count.

So what would you say it will be an average win % for a non professional player? and for a card counting player? is it possible to say?

Quote: lbrenes

So what would you say it will be an average win % for a non professional player? and for a card counting player? is it possible to say?

About .5%-1%, give or take, if you're just counting and spreading. Maybe more like 1.5% if you're also sitting out the hands when the count is bad - but that's a big red flag.

Have you actually found a non-continuously-shuffled live-dealt online game?

If by that you mean manually shuffled ones, yes... ladbrokes, unibet, Victor Chandler..

So if I'm winning constantly 9% or more I will be flagged as a card counter then?

Quote: lbrenes

If by that you mean manually shuffled ones, yes... ladbrokes, unibet, Victor Chandler..

So if I'm winning constantly 9% or more I will be flagged as a card counter then?

That's impossible, so I'd say it's more likely that you'd be flagged as a computer hacker:-)

At the end of the day casinos hate people they can't make money from and counters are the most likely candidates. A skillful blackjack player knows (a) how to play perfect strategy (b) when to increase their bet (presumably using some counting method) (c) when to vary from perfect strategy depending on count. As an aside similar logic applies to craps, i.e. knowing the better bets (Come, Don't Come) and avoiding the sucker bets.

My personal experience suggests they might look for non-obvious plays such as hitting soft-18 against a 9; hitting 12s and 13s against low cards; and most importantly varying ones bet size. Anything that suggests you're counting AND likely to take them for serious money raises their concerns.

I should like to suggest that merely using a consistent correct strategy, level or mildly varying bets gives a low house advantage, and shouldn't get any heat.

Starting out, the most important thing is to know instinctively the correct move with any combination of cards and any variations. Additionally I will sometimes double 9 vs 2, or not 9 vs 3, or hit 13 vs 2, 12 vs 4 or double 11 vs 10 (UK rules) - but otherwise will usually stick to [UK] infinite deck strategy.

So I got again confused by this... how is people getting 40% +

Quote: lbrenes

So I got again confused by this... how is people getting 40% +

http://www.mansioncasino.info/blackjack/whats-the-win-percentage-of-a-good-blackjack-player/

There's a difference between winning 40% *of the time* and making a 40% profit.

Let's take these one by one...

Quote: "Catherine B says:

September 9, 2010 at 12:47 pm

Well, since the house advantage is about 51%, anything better than 49% would be good."

Well, if the house advantage were 51%, then the player would win 24.5% of the time and the house would win 75.5% (a 51% difference). The actual house edge in blackjack is about 0.5%, so the player's win-rate should be about 49.75%.

Quote: Kasey R says:

September 9, 2010 at 12:47 pm

I average about 60% but I don’t consider myself a professional. People who can count card (which isn’t necisarilly cheating) could get around 80% if they’re smart (losing some hands so as not to make it obvious.)

First, I doubt Kasey has played a hand of blackjack in his(?) life. Second, an 80% win-rate is unattainable. Let's say the count is Crazy-good. Hell, let's say we're playing BJ with Switch's Juicy deck and all of the cards are 10-A. There are 3 possible outcomes: 1. the player has BJ and the dealer doesn't, 2. the player has 20 and the dealer has 21, 3. the player and the dealer tie. When the player wins, he gets 150% of what he bet. When the player loses, he loses 100% of his bet. These outcomes are equally likely. 150/2=75, so a 75% win percentage is the best-case scenario in this laughably-better-than-real-life game.

Quote: sandynlily says:

September 9, 2010 at 12:47 pm

The win rate per playing session can approach and is usually quite near 60% for a very proficient player.

The win rate in terms of hands won is 44% for the most professional of players.

Its interesting to note that even an advnatage blackjack player never wins more hands than he loses, the edge comes from getting payed 3:2, and being able to split and double down at very oportune moments.

My actual real world session win rate for this year is 56.9% which is slightly under par, but variance is somethign you have to deal with.

You need a very large sample of rounds played for your number to be anywhere near where it should, iv played evenings where i figured i won or lost as many as 70% of all the hands i played.

The hands-won statistic (44%) is probably about right. But the win-rate is very high. If I win 44% of hands and lose 56% (ignoring ties), then I have to win about 1.75 units per bet to attain the 60% win-rate. 1.75 is higher than the payout on a blackjack, so my winnings would have to come from successful splits and doubles. Splits and doubles don't achieve the required rate of success for this to work out.

Quote: lbrenes

So I got again confused by this... how is people getting 40% +

Need to be careful about terminology. I think you have been talking about positive return as a percentage of buy-in or bankroll. These posts are talking about the percentage of hands won vs. hands played. So a 50% win rate in these posts is equivalent to a 0% return using your terminology.

Also, don't take those posts too seriously. The guy who says a counter can win 80% of the hands, and only loses because he doesn't want to get caught, has no idea what he's talking about.

@papa, well you are right I'm interested of knowing what will be an average % of win money not played hands vs won..

Depends how many hands you play....

Also, don't take those posts too seriously. The guy who says a counter can win 80% of the hands, and only loses because he doesn't want to get caught, has no idea what he's talking about.

I agree. I have never been able to win more than 75% of the hands. ROFLMAO

The hands-won statistic (44%) is probably about right. But the win-rate is very high. If I win 44% of hands and lose 56% (ignoring ties), then I have to win about 1.75 units per bet to attain the 60% win-rate. 1.75 is higher than the payout on a blackjack, so my winnings would have to come from successful splits and doubles. Splits and doubles don't achieve the required rate of success for this to work out.

You forgot to factor in pushes and a spread of from 1 to 8 on bet sizes. plus the profits from insurance bets when the count is high. You can achieve a profit of as high as 1.5 % , but only with absolute perfect counting and a big bankroll The bankroll is vastly underestimated by most players. Ken Uston lost over $200,000 in a single week as a big gorilla ( only playing in high positive counts)
All most all the bets were in the $1,000 and $2,000 range. Were in not for early surrender he estimated his losses would have been 30% higher. So we are talking about over a quarter of a million dollars. !!!!

A 1.5% win rate is not that unattainable but you gotta have a great deal of bankroll to ride out the variation, AND you have to be on the right side of that variation when the casino catches you. My feeling nowaday is that this, like the Video Poker machines that pay about 100%, are not great sources of income. If you want to sit in a casino for 8 hours a day, catch some cancer from the second hand smoke, be paranoid about getting caught, to make $45 / hr (assuming green better), 60 hands an hours, $50 average bet, go for it. I just think that kind of action is really available long term. Yep, while you are not getting caught, you'll be RFBd, and you'll get into the gambler lifestyle, but I think nowadays with the technology it will be short-lived, especially when the casinos slowly move over to the new shufflemaster technology that will tell the folks upstairs exactly what the count is at any time on any given table and would be able to correlate your betting action to the count. For me, not worth it.

Quote: buzzpaff

You forgot...

Oh, I didn't forget. It just wasn't necessary to complicate things - I'd already shown that the stated win rate was ridiculous;-)

I would not worry about new technology at BJ tables. Casino's are reluctant to invest in a dying game. That's why there are no card readers for club cards, plastic drink holders to slide under a cheap padded rail, no real bonuses, etc

Quote:

Quote: FleaStiff
If you tell them you intend to use a system and give them an indication of how much money you will be bringing with you, they will be happy to send a limousine to pick you up at the airport and might even pay your airfare for you.

Quote: Evenbob

Are you having a flashback? Casinos don't do that anymore, as far as I know. Especially now. They did it all the time in the 80's and 90's, even my mothers husband got a free ride to give all the money back.

Yes, even these days, casinos will send a limo to pick you up at the airport. If you put up even a reasonable amount of money in the cage, then they most certainly will offer you limo service, if you would like it, to and from the airport.

And yes, they still regularly comp airfare. Even if you don't put money up in the cage.

Talk to your casino host.

Quote: Keyser

And yes, they still regularly comp airfare.

How the hell would YOU know? You can't get a room comped at the Cortez, let alone airfare. You're starting to believe your own PR, which you yourself put out..

Don't you just love it when two trolls from other boards change their handles and carry on their warfare?

Casinos arent stupid anymore... more and more VP's understand the math.... they look at a patron's SD. Even those below the typical win threshold. If a patron is approaching 2.5 or greater... an automated order will be issued... observe play. Use this information as you see fit, and adjust accordingly.

Quote: DeMango

Don't you just love it when two trolls from other boards change their handles and carry on their warfare?

Come again DeMango? I simply posted some accurate facts about comps. And what warefare?

Why is it that system players such as yourself are always out to start problems?

How can I report a post for moderation?

Quote: buzzpaff

I would not worry about new technology at BJ tables. Casino's are reluctant to invest in a dying game. That's why there are no card readers for club cards, plastic drink holders to slide under a cheap padded rail, no real bonuses, etc

I do not think that casinos consider Blackjack to be a dying game. They are undoubtedly aware of popular trends involving decline in play but that is not "dying". Alot of people still make a beeline for the blackjack tables. Its often a good combination of popularity in the game and conversational opportunities. Its unlikely to be declared "dead".

Now as to nomenclature and percentages.

In my Trainer Sessions which are calculated. My Hands-Won percentage will usually vary from 35 to 45 percent and I will be at a slight profit based mainly on my BlackJacks and Doubles. I can be exactly at my 1,000.00 electronic buy-in level or I can be up 100.00 from it and still be quite below the fifty percent mark on HandsWon.

Just let me know when a casino removes slots to add some BJ tables !!!!!!

.....

Quote: gofaster87

I can actually name one that did it recently. Hard Rock did it a few months ago.

Not to mention all the casinos in PA, almost a year ago. (Although admittedly, some of the space may have been taken up by ShuffleMaster virtual tables, rather than slots.) Reportedly, the majority of them have significantly higher profits than they did with just slots on the floor.