Chance of winning any given hand
June 3rd, 2011 at 12:51:42 PM
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https://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix1.html
Can I use that chart, and just multiply the values by something to get the chance of winning a given hand? If this were a magical blackjack game where you couldn't lose, only win, well then the % of every $1 would be equal to win rate. I'm thinking that for a hand that's +.5 EV, well that would be a 75% chance of winning that hand, since winning half your bet is 75% of the way from losing all of it to winning all of it. So in that example, you'd multiply the .5 by 1.5, which gets you .75. That sounds good and all, but what about hands that have like a +.8 EV? That would mean it'd be 120% chance of winning the hand? No.
Can I use that chart, and just multiply the values by something to get the chance of winning a given hand? If this were a magical blackjack game where you couldn't lose, only win, well then the % of every $1 would be equal to win rate. I'm thinking that for a hand that's +.5 EV, well that would be a 75% chance of winning that hand, since winning half your bet is 75% of the way from losing all of it to winning all of it. So in that example, you'd multiply the .5 by 1.5, which gets you .75. That sounds good and all, but what about hands that have like a +.8 EV? That would mean it'd be 120% chance of winning the hand? No.
June 3rd, 2011 at 1:03:00 PM
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I figured it out:
Put all values on a scale from 0-200, where 0-99 would be negative EV, and 101-200 would be positive. To do this, just subtract the negative amounts from 100, add 100 for positive numbers. Then take that number and divide by 200 to get the % of winning that hand. For instance, let's say your EV for a certain hand is +.86. Well, on that scale, it'd be 186. 186 / 200 = 93%. And then for a negative example, -.47% would be 53 / 200 = 26.5%
I have a feeling that this chart can't be converted to win % in any way, but it's close I'd think. The only problem is it doesn't work for hands where your EV is higher than 1, meaning you doubled.
Put all values on a scale from 0-200, where 0-99 would be negative EV, and 101-200 would be positive. To do this, just subtract the negative amounts from 100, add 100 for positive numbers. Then take that number and divide by 200 to get the % of winning that hand. For instance, let's say your EV for a certain hand is +.86. Well, on that scale, it'd be 186. 186 / 200 = 93%. And then for a negative example, -.47% would be 53 / 200 = 26.5%
I have a feeling that this chart can't be converted to win % in any way, but it's close I'd think. The only problem is it doesn't work for hands where your EV is higher than 1, meaning you doubled.
