d0n
d0n
Joined: Mar 15, 2011
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 1
March 15th, 2011 at 6:44:21 PM permalink
Hi,
I am wondering, does it have sense to use a perfect play script
one like this:

(I would upload it somewhere online, but I didn't find free hosting.. (it contains a page and the script) password: blackjack)

and a martingale progression?

my calculations are as following:

1 + 2 + 4 + 8 + 16 + 32 + 64 = 127

that means that if I would deposit $150 and play with $1 buttons I could loose 6 games in a row and if I would the seventh one I would still be fine..

1. How big is the probabilty of loosing 7 games in a row while using the script above and playing perfectly? Does the house still have a big house edge?

Would I make it to doubeling it from $150 to $300, so that I could withdraw $150 and play only with money that I won?
Thanks for the ideas!

(P.S.: anything else like la bouchere, or fibonacci, would that be better?)


2. Also, I am thinking about making a site about blackjack with this method, where I would advertise a specific casino and collect affiliate gains.. do you think that has sense?

3. is there anything like card counting in online blackjack? I do not think so, right? and does card counting even have sense, since there are x stacks?
Thanks..
Thanks!!!
kauboj
kauboj
Joined: Dec 19, 2010
  • Threads: 16
  • Posts: 88
March 15th, 2011 at 7:17:10 PM permalink
Quote: d0n

my calculations are as following:

1 + 2 + 4 + 8 + 16 + 32 + 64 = 127

that means that if I would deposit $150 and play with $1 buttons I could loose 6 games in a row and if I would the seventh one I would still be fine..

1. How big is the probabilty of loosing 7 games in a row while using the script above and playing perfectly?



I don't know all the math involved but i can tell you this... it is quite possible to loose more than 7 hands in a row.

no matter how many hands you loose. your next win will only net you $1 profit. you would be better off working at mcdonalds at minimum wage for making money.

and more than likely you will loose your bank roll before you collect.

3 weeks ago i spent a whole week playing an hour or two aday to win 400 bucks... only to give it all back in 2 hours loosing every straight hand playing basic strategy. dealer couldnt bust. dealt himself 4 black jacks in a row. had 5 and 6 card charlies 90% of every other hand.
buzzpaff
buzzpaff
Joined: Mar 8, 2011
  • Threads: 112
  • Posts: 5328
March 15th, 2011 at 7:42:37 PM permalink
Send me the $150 ans I will give you the deed to Hoover Dam
pacomartin
pacomartin
Joined: Jan 14, 2010
  • Threads: 649
  • Posts: 7895
March 20th, 2011 at 6:30:19 PM permalink
Quote: d0n


1 + 2 + 4 + 8 + 16 + 32 + 64 = 127

that means that if I would deposit $150 and play with $1 buttons I could loose 6 games in a row and if I would the seventh one I would still be fine..

1. How big is the probabilty of loosing 7 games in a row while using the script above and playing perfectly? Does the house still have a big house edge?

Would I make it to doubeling it from $150 to $300, so that I could withdraw $150 and play only with money that I won?
Thanks for the ideas!



The probabilty of losing 7 games in a row depends on the exact house edge. I'll assume a 1% house edge since I don't want to look at your file.
After 72 plays you have a 25% chance of losing 7 in a row, and
after 167 games you have a 50% chance of losing 7 in a row.
More than likely you will have to play closer to 300 times to double your money, which means that you will have a 71.7% chance of losing 7 in a row.

Most people underestimate the likehood of a losing streak.

Your betting system does not change the fundamental house edge. Betting systems are based on human emotion, and have no underlying basis. You remember that you lost six in a row, but the betting device has no memory. It will determine if you win or lose based on it's inherent odds, and it doesn't care what happened in the past.

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