mkl654321
mkl654321
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February 13th, 2011 at 12:22:09 PM permalink
I saw the recent video featuring the Wizard on the ACG website re "How Not To Get Beaten Like An Ugly Stepchild at Blackjack' (OK, that wasn't actually the title). In it, the Wiz mentions that autoshuffler games have a lower HE than an equivalent shoe game (though their cost to play per hour is greater, due to more hands/hour). He mentions that the reason for this is "mathematically complicated." I am pretty clueless when it comes to the higher math concepts involved in gambling, but I still was wondering if the Wiz or anyone else could explain the above statement in relatively simple terms.

I'm not likely to ever play against an autoshuffler unless it's a condition of my parole or something like that, but I'd be interested to know what the effect is on HE, and how much that is offset by increases in drop and/or hold.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
teddys
teddys
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February 13th, 2011 at 6:32:35 PM permalink
Search his website for "cut card effect."
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
NicksGamingStuff
NicksGamingStuff
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February 13th, 2011 at 8:12:40 PM permalink
From what I read on his website, generally more 10's appear with a constant shuffle, that is why the house edge is lower.
thecesspit
thecesspit
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February 13th, 2011 at 10:19:48 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

I saw the recent video featuring the Wizard on the ACG website re "How Not To Get Beaten Like An Ugly Stepchild at Blackjack' (OK, that wasn't actually the title). In it, the Wiz mentions that autoshuffler games have a lower HE than an equivalent shoe game (though their cost to play per hour is greater, due to more hands/hour). He mentions that the reason for this is "mathematically complicated." I am pretty clueless when it comes to the higher math concepts involved in gambling, but I still was wondering if the Wiz or anyone else could explain the above statement in relatively simple terms.

I'm not likely to ever play against an autoshuffler unless it's a condition of my parole or something like that, but I'd be interested to know what the effect is on HE, and how much that is offset by increases in drop and/or hold.



A CSM is always playing at or around a 0 count. That means basic strategy is almost always right.

In a shoe game, the count varies much more, and basic play will be --imperfect-- at a lot more points, costing the player more often that it benefits a basic strategy player.

Or at least, that's how I understand it. Maybe the cut-card effect is also part of this.

Maybe I'm completely off base.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Jufo81
Jufo81
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February 14th, 2011 at 5:02:02 AM permalink
Here's how I would think it:

If you enter a Blackjack game in a random point in the middle of a shoe there will be either

A) excess of Tens/Aces in the remaining shoe
B) shortage of Tens/Aces in the remaining shoe

Both outcomes A) and B) are equally likely (I think) but in case of B) the increased house edge resulting from shortage of Tens/Aces (and surplus of small cards) is larger than the corresponding diminishing of house edge in situation A).

So if you enter a shoe game in a random point and haven't been counting you expect to get slightly worse odds than if you entered the game right after shuffling.
mkl654321
mkl654321
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February 14th, 2011 at 9:42:06 AM permalink
Quote: Jufo81

Here's how I would think it:

If you enter a Blackjack game in a random point in the middle of a shoe there will be either

A) excess of Tens/Aces in the remaining shoe
B) shortage of Tens/Aces in the remaining shoe

Both outcomes A) and B) are equally likely (I think) but in case of B) the increased house edge resulting from shortage of Tens/Aces (and surplus of small cards) is larger than the corresponding diminishing of house edge in situation A).

So if you enter a shoe game in a random point and haven't been counting you expect to get slightly worse odds than if you entered the game right after shuffling.



I would think just the opposite because as the count gets largely negative, the HA actually starts to lessen--but the player advantage continues to increase even as positive counts become extremely high.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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March 1st, 2011 at 10:01:17 AM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Jufo81
Jufo81
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March 1st, 2011 at 12:18:52 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Only if there are more than average number of aces. If you had a shoe with nothing but tens, who has the advantage, player or dealer? Answer...neither. Also Jufo neglected to say that it could also be neutral.



I mentioned Tens/Aces in my post.

The deeper you deal into the shoe the less likely it is that the remaining composition of the shoe is perfectly symmetrical ie. neutral. And as the average deviation from symmetrical shoe increases the deeper it is dealt, the less accurately basic blackjack strategy estimates the remaining composition of the shoe, and I guess this is where the increased house edge due to cut card effect stems from.

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