What if Aces can only be 11s? (Hypothetical Thought experiment)
June 15th, 2025 at 7:40:49 PM
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I'm wondering what would change with the math of the game if Aces are only allowed to be 11? Very curious, but I lack the math/programming capabilities to simulate it.
To clarify:
Ace would no longer count as 1 for either the player or the dealer, it would only count as 11.
An A and a T is still a blackjack, and still pays 3:2
There will be no more soft hands, an A7 for example would be a hard 18. And you probably don't want to double any hand with an ace.
If you have a hard 16 and draw an Ace, that is a bust, not a 17
Same goes for the Dealer. If the Dealer has upcard 5, hole card A, draws a 7, they don't get to keep drawing, that's a bust.
And the unfortunate special scenario that I must decide a ruling on: Pair of aces
And this is my ruling, which I think would be fair.
If the dealer has A and flips over a hole card A, that's a bust
If the player has AA, the player will be offered an opportunity to split Aces. If the player cannot afford or does not want to split, the hand is a bust and loses.
If on the split, another Ace is dealt, the player may split again. If either player has already reached split maximum, or resplit aces is not allowed per house rules, that specific AA hand is a bust and loses.
All other rules same as standard blackjack.
I have many curiosities what would happen in this hypothetical game. Such as:
- What would be the house edge on the game?
- How does basic strategy change if Aces can only be counted as 11?
- Is the Hi-lo counting system still the overall "best" system?
- Does the rule change make Hi-lo counting system perform even better than it does on the standard blackjack game?
- What will be the changes to the Hi-lo indexes? I'm guessing probably 16v10 would have its tipping point to stand at a much more negative count, instead of TC0.
A bit into my thought process of how I came up with this thought experiment:
I was thinking about the hi-lo counting system. Where in terms of EOR, aces are lumped with tens as high cards.
However, in terms of play, Aces sometimes behaves as a 1/11 hybrid, sometimes it can only be a 1 (11 would bust the hand)
For example in 16v10, any additional ace is forced to be a 1. Even though, the Hi-lo deviation lumps it with tens. But I think it behaves much more similarly to a 2 than to a 10. In other words, more aces being previously out makes the hand decision lean more towards stand, rather than hit. Despite more aces being dealt out means a lower True count.
Also imagine doubling a 11 and getting an Ace. The effect of this Ace is nearly identical to 2,3,4,5,6, and opposite of 10.
So I'm a bit uncomfortable with the Hi lo system counting Aces as high cards. From a EOR perspective, they are very similar to 10s, and that's fine. But from a playing deviation perspective, many, possibly even most of the time, they behave like a small card rather than a 10. Causing me to think many of the hi-lo deviations are dubious since it lumps Aces and Tens together.
That's what led me to this thought experiment, of what the blackjack game would look like if we force Ace to always be a big card.
I'm hoping in digging through the math together, it would shed some light on how to think of Aces in hi-lo deviations. Therefore bringing pragmatic benefits to this otherwise completely hypothetical thought experiment.
To clarify:
Ace would no longer count as 1 for either the player or the dealer, it would only count as 11.
An A and a T is still a blackjack, and still pays 3:2
There will be no more soft hands, an A7 for example would be a hard 18. And you probably don't want to double any hand with an ace.
If you have a hard 16 and draw an Ace, that is a bust, not a 17
Same goes for the Dealer. If the Dealer has upcard 5, hole card A, draws a 7, they don't get to keep drawing, that's a bust.
And the unfortunate special scenario that I must decide a ruling on: Pair of aces
And this is my ruling, which I think would be fair.
If the dealer has A and flips over a hole card A, that's a bust
If the player has AA, the player will be offered an opportunity to split Aces. If the player cannot afford or does not want to split, the hand is a bust and loses.
If on the split, another Ace is dealt, the player may split again. If either player has already reached split maximum, or resplit aces is not allowed per house rules, that specific AA hand is a bust and loses.
All other rules same as standard blackjack.
I have many curiosities what would happen in this hypothetical game. Such as:
- What would be the house edge on the game?
- How does basic strategy change if Aces can only be counted as 11?
- Is the Hi-lo counting system still the overall "best" system?
- Does the rule change make Hi-lo counting system perform even better than it does on the standard blackjack game?
- What will be the changes to the Hi-lo indexes? I'm guessing probably 16v10 would have its tipping point to stand at a much more negative count, instead of TC0.
A bit into my thought process of how I came up with this thought experiment:
I was thinking about the hi-lo counting system. Where in terms of EOR, aces are lumped with tens as high cards.
However, in terms of play, Aces sometimes behaves as a 1/11 hybrid, sometimes it can only be a 1 (11 would bust the hand)
For example in 16v10, any additional ace is forced to be a 1. Even though, the Hi-lo deviation lumps it with tens. But I think it behaves much more similarly to a 2 than to a 10. In other words, more aces being previously out makes the hand decision lean more towards stand, rather than hit. Despite more aces being dealt out means a lower True count.
Also imagine doubling a 11 and getting an Ace. The effect of this Ace is nearly identical to 2,3,4,5,6, and opposite of 10.
So I'm a bit uncomfortable with the Hi lo system counting Aces as high cards. From a EOR perspective, they are very similar to 10s, and that's fine. But from a playing deviation perspective, many, possibly even most of the time, they behave like a small card rather than a 10. Causing me to think many of the hi-lo deviations are dubious since it lumps Aces and Tens together.
That's what led me to this thought experiment, of what the blackjack game would look like if we force Ace to always be a big card.
I'm hoping in digging through the math together, it would shed some light on how to think of Aces in hi-lo deviations. Therefore bringing pragmatic benefits to this otherwise completely hypothetical thought experiment.
