War side bet – Parlay option after winning, any EV potential?
May 13th, 2025 at 3:26:10 PM
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Hey everyone,
I’m currently playing blackjack in my local cassino and came across a version of the War side bet that’s a bit different from what I’ve seen discussed here or on Wizard of Odds
Here’s how it works:
I place a $25 main bet and a $10 War side bet.
If I win the War bet (i.e., my card is higher than the dealer’s), I win $10 at 1:1 odds.
Now here’s the twist: I’m allowed to parlay the full $20 (original side bet + win) into my main bet, increasing it to $45 — whereas what I saw on Wizard of Odds was the possibility of parlaying only the $10 from the winnings.
For example, if I get a Queen and the dealer shows a 6, I can choose to add the $20 from the War bet to my main bet after already knowing I’m in a strong position.
I know Wizard of Odds has an optimal parlay strategy chart assuming similar rules, but I’m wondering:
Has anyone here played under this exact structure? Do you think this creates a meaningful +EV opportunity?Appreciate any insights from those who've studied this or seen it in the wild.
Thanks in advance!
I’m currently playing blackjack in my local cassino and came across a version of the War side bet that’s a bit different from what I’ve seen discussed here or on Wizard of Odds
Here’s how it works:
I place a $25 main bet and a $10 War side bet.
If I win the War bet (i.e., my card is higher than the dealer’s), I win $10 at 1:1 odds.
Now here’s the twist: I’m allowed to parlay the full $20 (original side bet + win) into my main bet, increasing it to $45 — whereas what I saw on Wizard of Odds was the possibility of parlaying only the $10 from the winnings.
For example, if I get a Queen and the dealer shows a 6, I can choose to add the $20 from the War bet to my main bet after already knowing I’m in a strong position.
I know Wizard of Odds has an optimal parlay strategy chart assuming similar rules, but I’m wondering:
Has anyone here played under this exact structure? Do you think this creates a meaningful +EV opportunity?Appreciate any insights from those who've studied this or seen it in the wild.
Thanks in advance!
May 13th, 2025 at 3:56:15 PM
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It's possible that could help boost your counting game, but a critical piece of information is what's the house edge on the War bet? What happens if you have a tie?
May 15th, 2025 at 4:56:36 AM
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Take a look at this Wizard of Odds page: /games/war-blackjack/
There, the house edge on the War side bet is listed as 1.16%, assuming you’re only allowed to parlay the winnings from the side bet — not the full amount (original stake + winnings). That’s the correct rule implementation.
In the casino I’m playing at, they’re allowing me to parlay the entire side bet (including the original stake) into the main bet, which is clearly not how the side bet was designed to function. Given that, it really seems like I’m in a +EV situation here — especially when the parlay gets applied only after seeing both upcards.
There, the house edge on the War side bet is listed as 1.16%, assuming you’re only allowed to parlay the winnings from the side bet — not the full amount (original stake + winnings). That’s the correct rule implementation.
In the casino I’m playing at, they’re allowing me to parlay the entire side bet (including the original stake) into the main bet, which is clearly not how the side bet was designed to function. Given that, it really seems like I’m in a +EV situation here — especially when the parlay gets applied only after seeing both upcards.
May 15th, 2025 at 5:22:14 AM
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Functional link to WoO page, for convenience:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/war-blackjack/
https://wizardofodds.com/games/war-blackjack/
May the cards fall in your favor.
May 15th, 2025 at 7:23:08 AM
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If the mathematical expectation in $ of the additional bet covers more than the losses of the initial one, then this is already an advantage.
I don't remember, what is the probability of winning, for example 10 vs 6?
I don't remember, what is the probability of winning, for example 10 vs 6?
May 15th, 2025 at 8:38:41 AM
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My 30 second math says this:
You will tie 1/13 times with an infinite deck, so because ties lose the HE without a parlay is 7.69%
If HE with the parlay brings it down to 1.16% (HE of the bet)
Then allowing a parlay with the original winnings would double that delta, so it would have a positive player advantage of 5.372%
Real number would differ based on number of decks used, but probably a fairly close approximation. Also probably magnified even more in any kind of count was incorporated.
You will tie 1/13 times with an infinite deck, so because ties lose the HE without a parlay is 7.69%
If HE with the parlay brings it down to 1.16% (HE of the bet)
Then allowing a parlay with the original winnings would double that delta, so it would have a positive player advantage of 5.372%
Real number would differ based on number of decks used, but probably a fairly close approximation. Also probably magnified even more in any kind of count was incorporated.
