Could Real-Time Card Tracking and Adjusted Basic Strategy Beat Online Blackjack?

If we had a program or an Excel spreadsheet that tracks every card dealt in a blackjack game, calculates the house edge in real-time based on the remaining cards, and suggests when to play, could this strategy be profitable? Additionally, the program would adjust the "basic strategy" based on the exact composition of the remaining deck.

I believe that since traditional high-low card counting strategy already gives the player an advantage when the count is high, having precise information about every card dealt could allow for even greater benefits. Could such a system be effectively used against online casinos, where players aren’t kicked out for not betting regularly? Would this approach be viable in practice, considering the potential limitations online casinos might have?

Furthermore, with precise knowledge of the remaining cards, could the expected value (EV) of side bets become positive? Would this open additional opportunities to exploit the game, or are there practical limitations that make this unfeasible?

Welcome! This is a simple math question that has been answered in this forum.

Quote: Fatihh

If we had a program or an Excel spreadsheet that tracks every card dealt in a blackjack game, calculates the house edge in real-time based on the remaining cards, and suggests when to play, could this strategy be profitable? Additionally, the program would adjust the "basic strategy" based on the exact composition of the remaining deck.

I believe that since traditional high-low card counting strategy already gives the player an advantage when the count is high, having precise information about every card dealt could allow for even greater benefits. Could such a system be effectively used against online casinos, where players aren’t kicked out for not betting regularly? Would this approach be viable in practice, considering the potential limitations online casinos might have?

Furthermore, with precise knowledge of the remaining cards, could the expected value (EV) of side bets become positive? Would this open additional opportunities to exploit the game, or are there practical limitations that make this unfeasible?
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I did it. exactly as described. except I also made it auto play unsupervised. Kelly betting when I had edge >0.5% Min betting when no edge and wonging out when house had edge. It was 6 deck.
Program spent most of its time switching between tables or sat out. Had to join table and place the odd min bet to stop getting booted.
It was a fun exercise, but not viable. After about 3 months, I got singled out and rebuked for card counting, which they told me was not allowed. They didnt seem to notice the programmatic play.

There are easier ways to make money.

I was imagining a manual program where the user inputs the cards, but your approach is far more advanced. You must have excellent programming skills to create a program that can read cards, automate gameplay, and even switch tables.

Out of curiosity, what was the highest edge you ever observed during your experiment? Do you remember?

This might not come down to the how and what your ev is, but the where and what pitfalls may arise.

I don't have much experience with state regulated online blackjack so I haven't any clue what their procedures are, and if it's viable in those locations.

Well known offshore places have been caught cheating(search Google, and its been talked about here)

I wouldn't automatically give up on the idea, there's probably money to be made via offshore casinos.
Not all the casinos cheat all the time, but some of the casinos cheat some of the time. You would need to factor that in somehow along with getting no paid.

I believe you would have to bounce around and keep your wagering to moderate levels. And don't forget , oftentimes the same companies offer their services to multiple online casinos thus limiting your bounce around ability.

Several of us have studied the subject of using computer-perfect strategy for Blackjack.

The two decisions that provide the most equity are (obviously) the Insurance bet and '16 v T" because they are relatively close decisions and occur relatively frequently. You don't really need a computer to play those very close to perfectly.

Most decisions that are close will only occur rarely and even more rarely with a card composition that changes the decision, and then the average advantages gained by changing the decisions are usually quite small.

At any reasonable level of penetration set by the casino on 6-8 decks, many decisions essentially never change and provide no equity at all.

My general impression is that flat betting with computer-perfect strategy on shoes with 6-8 decks with 75% penetration is not profitable.

There are some combinations of penetration and number of players where flat betting computer-perfect strategy on single deck (and possibly double deck) games might be profitable, but good luck finding such games.

Quote: Fatihh

I was imagining a manual program where the user inputs the cards, but your approach is far more advanced. You must have excellent programming skills to create a program that can read cards, automate gameplay, and even switch tables.

Out of curiosity, what was the highest edge you ever observed during your experiment? Do you remember?
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It started as you envisage with me entering card values as seen and being prompted when to bet. Typically just a couple of bets per hour at up to about 2% edge. Incredibly tedious. So then I devised a sort of OCR reader that read the card values and flagged when to bet. Next step was to automate betting. But that was hard because I kept getting booted for non playing. spent 90% of time wonged out or playing the odd cover bet.
Best advantage was about 2%, but once in a blue moon..
Made less than £10 over a couple of months before they closed me down. It was fun, but not worth the effort.

My biggest concern would be the shuffle points. Is it obvious on most sites? In the old days they would shuffle up without giving any indication which would completely screw the counters.