EV + Side Bet

Can someone help me calculate when EV is positive based on the count for a standard 52 card deck on this side bet?

If the sum of your two cards plus the dealers face up card equals any of these numbers then a payout is triggered.

30 - 7:1
29 - 4:1
28 - 3:1
27 - 2:1

The basic Hi Lo strategy works, but I think for this bet making 7 +1 is more effective instead of 0. Some people say at a count of +4 the bet is EV positive? Can anyone confirm this and if so what is the EV for +4 through +8?

Aces are helpful, but I am not sure if they are as important as tens because sometimes the player gets a blackjack and the dealer gets a 10 and the sum is 31 which does not trigger a payout.

Quote: justwantap

Can someone help me calculate when EV is positive based on the count for a standard 52 card deck on this side bet?

If the sum of your two cards plus the dealers face up card equals any of these numbers then a payout is triggered.

30 - 7:1
29 - 4:1
28 - 3:1
27 - 2:1

The basic Hi Lo strategy works, but I think for this bet making 7 +1 is more effective instead of 0. Some people say at a count of +4 the bet is EV positive? Can anyone confirm this and if so what is the EV for +4 through +8?

Aces are helpful, but I am not sure if they are as important as tens because sometimes the player gets a blackjack and the dealer gets a 10 and the sum is 31 which does not trigger a payout.
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I didn't work on the EV vs hi-lo count, but here are my effects-or-removal (E.O.R.) The E.O.R.'s are the difference in EV between a deck of cards with one card removed and a full deck of cards. I get an EV of -20.163% for a full deck.



We can see the size of the E.O.R.'s for nines and aces are double that of seven and 0.7 the E.O.R. of ten.

That is good so a seven is a +1 for the correct counting strategy on this side bet.

Correct me if I am wrong because I am newer to the scene, but once cards are removed the EOR returns are higher/make more of an impact.

If we calculate the house edge with 2 dead fours, 2 dead fives, and one dead three what would the EV be?

I ran this through Chat GPT and it gave me this.

In a simulation of 100,000 trials with two dead 2s, two dead 4s, and one dead 5 removed from the deck (resulting in a +5 count):

Expected Value (EV): +0.1103 (positive)
Payout distribution:
No payout: 77.30% of the time
2:1 payout (total = 27): 6.61% of the time
3:1 payout (total = 28): 5.72% of the time
4:1 payout (total = 29): 4.89% of the time
7:1 payout (total = 30): 5.48% of the time
With a +5 count, the bet has a positive EV, confirming it can be profitable.



Here are the simulation results for the expected values (EV) at counts +4 through +8:

+4 count: EV = +0.04697
+5 count: EV = +0.1103 (from earlier simulation)
+6 count: EV = +0.18201
+7 count: EV = +0.2533
+8 count: EV = +0.31252


Can someone confirm this?