if the first card is a ten its about 13%

but what if i know the dealers upcard before the round is an Ace or a ten? how much -EV is that.

i heard a dealers ace is -35% but dont know about the ten? basically i want to know what happens if my known card goes wrong.

Any suggestions on the answer ? book or online sources to find the answer are also very welcome.

thank for the help Dagobert

Quote:DagobertAssume you know the first card dealt to you in Blackjack is an Ace. Your edge will be roughly +51% rule depending

if the first card is a ten its about 13%

but what if i know the dealers upcard before the round is an Ace or a ten? how much -EV is that.

i heard a dealers ace is -35% but dont know about the ten? basically i want to know what happens if my known card goes wrong.

Any suggestions on the answer ? book or online sources to find the answer are also very welcome.

thank for the help Dagobert

link to original post

https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/expected-values/

The Wizards appendices at the link above give you everything you need to know to answer this question and many others. You can easily copy and past a table to a spreadsheet. Just add a formula to the next column to select the highest EV from the available strategy choices for the Dealer Ace rows. Then multiply this EV by the probability column to weight the hand properly. The sum of this weighted EV divided by the sum of the probabilities is the EV of the situation where all you know is that the Dealer will have an Ace up.

If you can do this calculation yourself, you will learn more than just asking someone for a number.

Edit: you need to divided the probability for hands where dealer has BJ by 2. Only half the hands where deal has BJ have an Ace up.

Sometimes though the dealer will end up with the 10 up, and you'll get a hard 16 or such, with a million expected 10/faces coming. 🤷🏻♂️ At that point the ability to tell the dealer to take that stiff and pound it up his a** is helpful.

What get outta here?

I got a marker comin'. Deal.

unfortunately I believe that sth about this data set is of.

/games/blackjack/appendix/9/euro-6ds17r4/

was working on this rule set but the probabilty of all hand combinations should add up to 100% and it only adds to 95.25%

so some probabilities are either wrong or sth is missing.

greets

8 decks, H17, DOA, DAS, SPL3, NRSA, surrender

Up |

card | Overall expected value (%)

---------------------------------

2 | 9.199338442

3 | 12.547665556

4 | 16.210025716

5 | 20.176745790

6 | 23.827060161

7 | 14.446546319

8 | 5.773773293

9 | -4.065456190

10 | -17.103675114

A | -36.890021293

---------------------------------

Total | -0.553001743

I think you are close to getting the spreadsheet right. The reason that you don't get 100% is that the way Mike presents the tables requires you to correct the dealer blackjack probabilities. Mike gives you the probabilities for a hand like Ace up vs 7,8, but then he lumps a dealer blackjack with Ace up together with blackjack with Ten up. If you are looking specifically for EV versus dealer Ace up or Ten up, you have to divide the Dealer BJ probabilities by two. You could just create two extra lines in your spreadsheet with Ace up and Ten up and half the probability.

If you make this correction, you should get the total probability for dealer ace as 0.0070765951 = 1/13. I get the overall probability as 0.99999921 which is not 1.00 due to adding many rounded numbers.

There are different numbers of columns for the different tables. I use the maximum function to get the max EV into an additional column. For example =MAX(E3;G3;I3) when there are three columns.

I have a column with the formula =IF(A8=$K$2;1;0) in row 8 where column A has the value A, 2, etc, and $K$2 has one of these values. If I multiply the probability and EV columns by this formula, it selects out just whatever deal up card is entered into the cell $K$2. Then, if I want to see the EV versus Dealer 4, I get it immediately after entering a 4 into cell K2.

Quote:Dagobertthanks for the reply

unfortunately I believe that sth about this data set is of.

/games/blackjack/appendix/9/euro-6ds17r4/

was working on this rule set but the probabilty of all hand combinations should add up to 100% and it only adds to 95.25%

so some probabilities are either wrong or sth is missing.

greets

link to original post

Fixing the link to:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/9/euro-6ds17r4/

Known Ten vs Ten, EV = -0.6451%

Known Ten vs Ace, EV = -22.85%

Known Ten vs Any upcard, EV = 14.14%

I do appreciate your input to help me how to think which is the most important in the long run.

Thanks a lot