Predicting push-22 at Free Bet BJ
March 11th, 2023 at 4:20:59 PM
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Quote: DRichQuote: richodude
This is very interesting. Remember of course most 22's happen at a count of 0 because most of the time the count is 0 anyways.
What makes you think that most of the time the count is 0? I would say just the opposite, most of the time the count is not 0.
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Depends how zero is defined. I’m assuming the count is truncated meaning a running -7 between +7 (8 decks) is rounded to a true 0. Unless an ace five count is completely different. It would also make sense for a running 0 since we start a new count every 50 cards or so and most cards dealt don’t even affect the count.
March 11th, 2023 at 5:00:55 PM
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If you're using a simple count then it's easy to get back to zero. This shows how during a run of 370m hands nearly 34m were at zero count, and half the hands were between -1 and 1.
The program uses a simple Hi-Lo count, so uses the running count divided by the number of remaining decks, rounding down to one decimal point. It's impossible to get -0.1 as a count of -1 divided by 6 or smaller, cannot round down to -1/10.
The program uses a simple Hi-Lo count, so uses the running count divided by the number of remaining decks, rounding down to one decimal point. It's impossible to get -0.1 as a count of -1 divided by 6 or smaller, cannot round down to -1/10.
March 11th, 2023 at 8:14:11 PM
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The numbers I have seen so far indicate that a zero count is the least common of three scenarios (more aces, more fives or neither). I think this is because the number of unusual sequences that do not have the same number of Aces and Fives is much higher than the number of sequences that even out (ex: +11, -20, etc).
I think I will be able to publish the full notebook tomorrow, showing all numbers and charts. On the positive side, since I started this experiment I've played roughly 15h of Free Bet Black jack at the local casino and I could just be lucky but I've made a tidy profit on that side bet. It mostly hit at 7x but I got a few 20x and a couple 50x.
Interesting anecdote. At one point I was up to a $25 bet (increasing $5 every turn while the count remained 0) and the dealer shows a 4 of spades. Then a player to my left *hit* on a hard 15 (the dealer asked to confirm and the player confirmed); he got an 8 of spades. Bust. And then of course the dealer pulls a 10 of spades. I never blame other players usually but that dude prevented me from getting a $1,250 bonus. I walked away, went to play baccarat to cool down, and the pit boss showed up and told what just happened to the baccarat dealer, both were furious on my behalf :-)
I would also like to clarify that I do not work with a partner. When I mentioned adding another player I meant that I will run scenarios in my simulation that involve other simulated players just to see if it changes anything in the numbers I get. I prepared two simulated players profiles (one proper player and one typical casual player), I may put in another type of bad player that somehow seems to hang out a lot at this type of black jack table, the kind that "doesn't like to bust".
Stay tuned!
I think I will be able to publish the full notebook tomorrow, showing all numbers and charts. On the positive side, since I started this experiment I've played roughly 15h of Free Bet Black jack at the local casino and I could just be lucky but I've made a tidy profit on that side bet. It mostly hit at 7x but I got a few 20x and a couple 50x.
Interesting anecdote. At one point I was up to a $25 bet (increasing $5 every turn while the count remained 0) and the dealer shows a 4 of spades. Then a player to my left *hit* on a hard 15 (the dealer asked to confirm and the player confirmed); he got an 8 of spades. Bust. And then of course the dealer pulls a 10 of spades. I never blame other players usually but that dude prevented me from getting a $1,250 bonus. I walked away, went to play baccarat to cool down, and the pit boss showed up and told what just happened to the baccarat dealer, both were furious on my behalf :-)
I would also like to clarify that I do not work with a partner. When I mentioned adding another player I meant that I will run scenarios in my simulation that involve other simulated players just to see if it changes anything in the numbers I get. I prepared two simulated players profiles (one proper player and one typical casual player), I may put in another type of bad player that somehow seems to hang out a lot at this type of black jack table, the kind that "doesn't like to bust".
Stay tuned!
March 18th, 2023 at 10:55:45 PM
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I'm still working on this analysis but I have preliminary results now that my simulator implements the full strategy described by Mike on his Free Bet webpage.
Interestingly the numbers show that my initial gut feeling (sweet spot on -2 count) was decent.
Both normal and push-22 rounds typically conclude when the count is between -2 and +2 (around 2/3 of the rounds) but within that bracket, the push-22 occurs more frequently on lower counts. At least according to my homemade simulation.
So until I get a chance to further this analysis, my own strategy will be to bet on that Push-22 side bet only when the Aces/Fives count is at -2, or possible -1 if I'm ahead.
Of course this is preliminary and either way I don't have actuarial skills so this is to be taken with a bag of salt.
I can't post links directly (the forum won't let me) but if you go on my site "enterprise-grade" dotcom you can see the charts and some more details by scrolling to the bottom for the article titled "Analyzing Free Bet Blackjack".
To be continued!
Interestingly the numbers show that my initial gut feeling (sweet spot on -2 count) was decent.
Both normal and push-22 rounds typically conclude when the count is between -2 and +2 (around 2/3 of the rounds) but within that bracket, the push-22 occurs more frequently on lower counts. At least according to my homemade simulation.
So until I get a chance to further this analysis, my own strategy will be to bet on that Push-22 side bet only when the Aces/Fives count is at -2, or possible -1 if I'm ahead.
Of course this is preliminary and either way I don't have actuarial skills so this is to be taken with a bag of salt.
I can't post links directly (the forum won't let me) but if you go on my site "enterprise-grade" dotcom you can see the charts and some more details by scrolling to the bottom for the article titled "Analyzing Free Bet Blackjack".
To be continued!
March 18th, 2023 at 11:43:09 PM
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That’s awesome! Try and program it in a way where you aren’t focusing on only a five ace count. Be able to change the deck for every rank card. Maybe then you’ll discover the optimal count to be 2s and 7s or something. That is if you want to get serious about taking an advantage
March 19th, 2023 at 11:31:14 AM
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Quote: jdmartin
I can't post links directly (the forum won't let me) but if you go on my site "enterprise-grade" dotcom you can see the charts and some more details by scrolling to the bottom for the article titled "Analyzing Free Bet Blackjack".
To be continued!
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Here is jdmartin's link:
Analyzing Free Bet Blackjack
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
