Odds of a True Count Counting Cards
I have a theory, that counting cards simply isn't worth the effort to gain a 1% advantage over the casino in, say, 1 in 10 or 1 in 20 shoes. (Especially with the amount of dollars I play).
I have practiced counting cards. I just don't think the effort is worth it. Especially after ya'll tell me the odds of a shoe having a positive true-count.
Just curious to see how many positive shoes I'll see, and if I should improve my card counting skills. Esperically considering I generally go to a casino, play at or slightly under $25 a hand, and expect to lose the $300 I bring. (But sometimes double it).
Quote: bluerogMethinks the negative shoes are worth noticing too. Good point. I'm pretty sure everyone knows the "I gotta pee" trick when the shoe gets bad.
Just curious to see how many positive shoes I'll see, and if I should improve my card counting skills. Esperically considering I generally go to a casino, play at or slightly under $25 a hand, and expect to lose the $300 I bring. (But sometimes double it).
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You may be having fun card counting, but with a bankroll only 12x your initial bet you don’t have the resources to be a ‘card counter’.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: bluerogMethinks the negative shoes are worth noticing too. Good point. I'm pretty sure everyone knows the "I gotta pee" trick when the shoe gets bad.
Just curious to see how many positive shoes I'll see, and if I should improve my card counting skills. Especially considering I generally go to a casino, play at or slightly under $25 a hand, and expect to lose the $300 I bring. (But sometimes double it).
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You may be having fun card counting, but with a bankroll only 12x your initial bet you don’t have the resources to be a ‘card counter’.
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Not trying to be professional. Nor do I have the time to properly dedicate myself to the art.
I'm simply curious if anyone has done the calculation on how often a true-count occurs when playing with a 6-deck shoe. If I learn it happens every 4 or 5 shoes (maybe once per hour), then for a player like me, it may be worth it to develop the skill. If it happens every 10 shoes... for someone like me, that's 2 times per night I'm gambling. And maybe 5 or so hands where my chances of winning v the casino are 51%+. And certainly not worth it to count cards.
I have plenty of resources. I simply don't use them towards gambling. At least not with the casino edge being 2% or more.
Note: For the "6-deck part of the graph(s)", the penetration is about 80% ("4.81/6")
Quote: bluerogWhat are the odds of a 6-deck shoe, with a penetration of 1-1/2 decks, having a true-count of over +1? Of over +2? etc... the last 2 hands of the deck (say 3 people playing)?
I have a theory, that counting cards simply isn't worth the effort to gain a 1% advantage over the casino in, say, 1 in 10 or 1 in 20 shoes. (Especially with the amount of dollars I play).
I have practiced counting cards. I just don't think the effort is worth it. Especially after ya'll tell me the odds of a shoe having a positive true-count.
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bluerog,
I ran two 400-million-round CVData sims for a 6D, H17 game with 75% penetration. In the first, a lone HiLo counter played Heads Up (HU); in the other, he played with two other players (3 tot).
Here are the Cumulative TC Distributions for both cases:
| HiLo TC | HU | 3 tot |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.01% | 0.01% |
| 12 | 0.02% | 0.03% |
| 11 | 0.04% | 0.04% |
| 10 | 0.10% | 0.10% |
| 9 | 0.20% | 0.20% |
| 8 | 0.44% | 0.44% |
| 7 | 0.75% | 0.75% |
| 6 | 1.49% | 1.48% |
| 5 | 2.69% | 2.67% |
| 4 | 5.22% | 5.18% |
| 3 | 8.59% | 8.51% |
| 2 | 15.89% | 15.75% |
| 1 | 27.51% | 27.25% |
| 0 | 71.32% | 71.69% |
| -1 | 83.48% | 83.71% |
| -2 | 91.11% | 91.23% |
| -3 | 94.62% | 94.69% |
| -4 | 97.23% | 97.27% |
| -5 | 98.46% | 98.48% |
| -6 | 99% | 99% |
| -7 | 100% | 100% |
As you can see, in either case the HiLo TC is +1 or more on just over 27% of the rounds.
Hope this helps!
Dog Hand
It basically shows me if I play with the house 2.5% edge over me to the end of the shoe for a chance at a positive shoe, I'll never beat that house edge without obviously increasing my bet 10 times or more at the end.
I'll stick with my day job. I may still "eyeball" a few shoes for when lots of little ones seem to have come out and do my typical double or triple my typical bet, "when I feel lucky."
Reading ya'lls stuff has been great. Thanks again.
Quote: DogHandQuote: bluerogWhat are the odds of a 6-deck shoe, with a penetration of 1-1/2 decks, having a true-count of over +1? Of over +2? etc... the last 2 hands of the deck (say 3 people playing)?
I have a theory, that counting cards simply isn't worth the effort to gain a 1% advantage over the casino in, say, 1 in 10 or 1 in 20 shoes. (Especially with the amount of dollars I play).
I have practiced counting cards. I just don't think the effort is worth it. Especially after ya'll tell me the odds of a shoe having a positive true-count.
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bluerog,
I ran two 400-million-round CVData sims for a 6D, H17 game with 75% penetration. In the first, a lone HiLo counter played Heads Up (HU); in the other, he played with two other players (3 tot).
Here are the Cumulative TC Distributions for both cases:
HiLo TC HU 3 tot 13 0.01% 0.01% 12 0.02% 0.03% 11 0.04% 0.04% 10 0.10% 0.10% 9 0.20% 0.20% 8 0.44% 0.44% 7 0.75% 0.75% 6 1.49% 1.48% 5 2.69% 2.67% 4 5.22% 5.18% 3 8.59% 8.51% 2 15.89% 15.75% 1 27.51% 27.25% 0 71.32% 71.69% -1 83.48% 83.71% -2 91.11% 91.23% -3 94.62% 94.69% -4 97.23% 97.27% -5 98.46% 98.48% -6 99% 99% -7 100% 100%
As you can see, in either case the HiLo TC is +1 or more on just over 27% of the rounds.
Hope this helps!
Dog Hand
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