EZ bust side bet

Does anyone have any information on how card counting affects the EZ bust side bet? Seems to be getting increasingly popular.

https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/side-bets/ez-bust/


For example:

- At what TC does the side bet become positive for dealer 6? How about 5? 4?

- What are the EV's of the side bet per true count, as the count goes up?

- How does different counting systems perform against each other in terms of accurately assessing the probability of dealer bust at their own respective high counts?

Here is one calculation:

vs Dealer 6 with 8 decks

Dealer busts with a probability of 0.4999 when the deck composition is:

A, 2, 3: 32
4: 18
5: 11
6: 32-1 = 31 (Dealer's 6 showing)
7, 8,9: 32
Ten: 128

Quote: gordonm888

Here is one calculation:

vs Dealer 6 with 8 decks

Dealer busts with a probability of 0.4999 when the deck composition is:

A, 2, 3: 32
4: 18
5: 11
6: 32-1 = 31 (Dealer's 6 showing)
7, 8,9: 32
Ten: 128
link to original post

This is great, but, it's only one scenario. Perhaps there's a "representative" composition for any true count.

Or maybe not. I think it's due to true counts not factoring in 7,8,9. 9s will cause the dealer 6 to bust. 7s and 8s... I'm not sure if they help or harm the dealer when the upcard is 6.

This side bet was discussed here before. It’s beatable with a special count.

Quote: gordonm888

Here is one calculation:

vs Dealer 6 with 8 decks

Dealer busts with a probability of 0.4999 when the deck composition is:

A, 2, 3: 32
4: 18
5: 11
6: 32-1 = 31 (Dealer's 6 showing)
7, 8,9: 32
Ten: 128
link to original post

Are you saying the key cards for beating the upcard of a 6 are 4s and 5s? What are the key cards for beating the upcard of a 5?

Quote: ViennaPizza

Does anyone have any information on how card counting affects the EZ bust side bet? Seems to be getting increasingly popular.

https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/side-bets/ez-bust/


For example:

- At what TC does the side bet become positive for dealer 6? How about 5? 4?

- What are the EV's of the side bet per true count, as the count goes up?

- How does different counting systems perform against each other in terms of accurately assessing the probability of dealer bust at their own respective high counts?
link to original post

ViennaPizza,

Wow... 9 years ago I used CVData to sim the dealer bust rate as a function of the HiLo TC for a 6D H17 game and found that, for a dealer upcard of 5 or 6, the rate exceeds 50% (making the side bet +EV) at a TC of +9.

See https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/showthread.php?18218-Dealer-Upcard-Probability-Bust-Rate-and-Bust-Frequency-vs-HiLo-TC for more details.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand