Would you double down on stiff if dealer shows his next card openly

I drew some inspiration for this question from some of the discussions on another thread here about doubling hard 12v2.

What wasn't mentioned on the thread, is that sometimes the dealer ACTUALLY shows the next card openly. This has happened several times when I've played. It's usually caused by misdeals. The pit usually comes over and you usually have an additional option of pulling the entire bet back (like a free surrender). Of course I'd do that when I see the bust card would bust my hand.

But the question is if the dealer's next card actually helps you. Would you double down in an otherwise impossible situation, with everyone including the pitboss watching.

Let's say as an example, you have Hard 18 vs 10, and the dealer makes a mistake and shows a 3. You can stand (- 18% EV), Pull the whole bet back (0 EV), Hit (+96% EV), or double down on your hard 18 (+192% EV)

Just wondering if the pit boss is going to frown upon my theoretical doubling down on hard 18, or even if I hit the hard 18. If it would be viewed as severe angle shooting. Kinda reminds me of people who mess around with 4s, since they can kinda go both ways for doubling down (high TC) or split. The'd put out the extra bet and hope the dealer doesn't ask them if it's a split or double and assume. And then when the cards are unfavorable they'd claim they actually intended the other action. Perhaps a good comparison, perhaps a bad comparison? It's the closest I can think of, even though one is intentionally trying to induce dealer into making a mistake, and the other one is unintentional. But the similarity is maximizing EV after dealer making mistakes.

I think they're testing you and will ban you if they don't like your move. But it's only one bet among thousands and why should they care?

Quote: VladPutin

I drew some inspiration for this question from some of the discussions on another thread here about doubling hard 12v2.

What wasn't mentioned on the thread, is that sometimes the dealer ACTUALLY shows the next card openly. This has happened several times when I've played. It's usually caused by misdeals. The pit usually comes over and you usually have an additional option of pulling the entire bet back (like a free surrender). Of course I'd do that when I see the bust card would bust my hand.

But the question is if the dealer's next card actually helps you. Would you double down in an otherwise impossible situation, with everyone including the pitboss watching.

Let's say as an example, you have Hard 18 vs 10, and the dealer makes a mistake and shows a 3. You can stand (- 18% EV), Pull the whole bet back (0 EV), Hit (+96% EV), or double down on your hard 18 (+192% EV)

Just wondering if the pit boss is going to frown upon my theoretical doubling down on hard 18, or even if I hit the hard 18. If it would be viewed as severe angle shooting. Kinda reminds me of people who mess around with 4s, since they can kinda go both ways for doubling down (high TC) or split. The'd put out the extra bet and hope the dealer doesn't ask them if it's a split or double and assume. And then when the cards are unfavorable they'd claim they actually intended the other action. Perhaps a good comparison, perhaps a bad comparison? It's the closest I can think of, even though one is intentionally trying to induce dealer into making a mistake, and the other one is unintentional. But the similarity is maximizing EV after dealer making mistakes.
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Politely ask the pit boss if you are still allowed to double down! He will say yes, and then you can double down. It’s simple to me.

Quote: VladPutin

Let's say as an example, you have Hard 18 vs 10, and the dealer makes a mistake and shows a 3. You can stand (- 18% EV), Pull the whole bet back (0 EV), Hit (+96% EV), or double down on your hard 18 (+192% EV)

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I don't understand this part. Why would you hit a hard 18?

If the dealer flashed a 3 and you got that card you would have 21

I once doubled 13 vs 6.

I suspect it was a hand dealt game at a full $3 table (it was ages ago!). The hands to the right had doubled (10) Jh, (11) 10h, 9h (onto their 12) so it seemed rude not to double and sure enough I got the 8h. I think the supervisor saw the funny side of it and let the hand stand, especially as we were all betting small.

The other time was a Joker promotion, once a day you got paid 2/1 for any regular win, including double and the first hand on splits. If you work it out you do double some stiffs. I think I did double one once.

Quote: VladPutin

But the question is if the dealer's next card actually helps you. Would you double down in an otherwise impossible situation, with everyone including the pitboss watching.

Let's say as an example, you have Hard 18 vs 10, and the dealer makes a mistake and shows a 3. You can stand (- 18% EV), Pull the whole bet back (0 EV), Hit (+96% EV), or double down on your hard 18 (+192% EV)
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With my luck, the floor will say "You can double if you like, but I'm going to tell the dealer to burn the 3."

Quote: avianrandy

If the dealer flashed a 3 and you got that card you would have 21
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I just got it. This question is like this, would you buy a guaranteed winning lottery ticket? This is just too rare for us to worry about. What I thought was that more often the dealer accidentally exposed her undercard and thus the player would take advantage of this dealer’s fault.

Basically it depends if I think I could get away with it and not attract any heat. If I don't think I'd get heat for it, gimme the money.

Quote: Romes

Basically it depends if I think I could get away with it and not attract any heat. If I don't think I'd get heat for it, gimme the money.
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I would always double if they offered me that opportunity on a good double hand.

Quote: DRich

Quote: Romes

Basically it depends if I think I could get away with it and not attract any heat. If I don't think I'd get heat for it, gimme the money.
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I would always double if they offered me that opportunity on a good double hand.
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The question wasn't a good double hand, it was a specific hand where the dealer exposes the next card and everyone knows about it... at least that's how I read and responded to it.

Or are you saying heat be dammed double down your min bet on an exposed card no matter what?

Quote: Romes

Or are you saying heat be dammed double down your min bet on an exposed card no matter what?

Yes, if it is a card that would be +EV to double on. (eg. 18 and the card is a 3). I wouldn't worry at all about heat if the card is exposed and the PB allows you to double. I don't think that would raise any suspicion.

Most places I've found will burn the exposed card before you even get a chance.

The one place I worked that kept the card in play, the floor would even encourage the player to double down if it was a good card for them. Chalk it up to customer service. A remarkable percentage of the time, the player wouldn't do it, either wanting to not "mess up the cards", or maintain good karma.