BoSox
BoSox
Joined: Mar 9, 2021
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146Dieter
August 3rd, 2021 at 9:17:23 PM permalink
On a side note, any new players who can calculate their daily Expected Value cannot, I repeat cannot bank it and expect a loan officer to give you a mortgage on this information alone.

Mission for Moderator.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146AxelWolf
August 4th, 2021 at 1:54:41 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

You are always in the short term, you will
never play enough to be in the long term.
The game is in the long term every
minute, you never are,




this post, while it may be technically accurate, depending on how one defines long term, is highly misleading

the longer a player plays, the closer his results are likely to be to what his long run expectation indicates

a mathematician (which I'm not) can make quick work of this

he will be able to calculate for example, that an AP playing with a 1.25% advantage:


will be ahead 67% of the time if he plays 1,000 hands

85% of the time if he plays 10,000 hands

and 95% of the time he plays 100,000 hands



these %s are not meant to be accurate -

they are just rough estimates serving as examples of exactly what a mathematician would be able to calculate

he can also make more in depth calculations - such as how often he will exceed his expectation by how much depending on how many hands he has played






anybody considering the worth of an EB post re gambling should consider this:



he has claimed he can easily beat double zero roulette

he has stated that it doesn't matter if the wheel has one or 2 zeroes

he refuses to state his methods for doing this

he has stated that the math doesn't matter

he has stated that he considered buying a Minivan for $2,500 with 200,000 miles

even though if he can easily beat roulette as he says, all he would have to do is up his bets for a day or a few days and he would easily have enough to buy a new Minivan





.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Aug 4, 2021
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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Mission146
August 4th, 2021 at 9:04:36 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

I would disagree with this. Many people play enough that they should approach long term as opposed to short term.



Nope. Here is the long term. Every hand of BJ that's
ever been played in the world and is being played
at the moment. There is no way one person can
even put a dent in being in the long term. Why do
you think it took Thorpe so long, with the help of
computers, to prove card counting works. A computer
is the only thing that can simulate the long term. We
humans are permanently stuck in the short term.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
EvenBob
EvenBob
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Mission146
August 4th, 2021 at 9:04:37 AM permalink
edited
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
EvenBob
EvenBob
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Mission146
August 4th, 2021 at 9:09:25 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster




he has claimed he can easily beat double zero roulette




It only works because I realize I am totally
stuck in the short term. And always will
be. I cannot beat the long term, but I don't need
to. In the long term everything smoothly evens
out. In the short term anything can and will
happen and that can be exploited..
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear 
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
August 4th, 2021 at 9:15:34 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Why do
you think it took Thorpe so long, with the help of
computers, to prove card counting works. A computer
is the only thing that can simulate the long term. We
humans are permanently stuck in the short term.

By that thinking, he didn't prove jack, because you seem to interpret 'the long term' as eternity.
One can prove that card counting works without simulating or playing one single hand. It's actually fairly simple arithmetic.
With just a little bit of maths, and zero simulation, one can say with x% probability that a card counter will be within a range of outcomes where the outcome is 'in profit'
and as number of hands is increased WITHOUT PLAYING ANY, one could calculate and chart how x% varies win n, where count of hands is n.
All without computer simulation or hours of play.

Oh.... And EvenBob cannot beat Roulette $:o)
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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Mission146
August 4th, 2021 at 9:22:17 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

.

What percent is your supposed average advantage?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146darkoz
August 4th, 2021 at 9:25:13 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

It only works because I realize I am totally
stuck in the short term. And always will
be. I cannot beat the long term, but I don't need
to. In the long term everything smoothly evens
out. In the short term anything can and will
happen and that can be exploited..

In that case, you should have no problem beating any game no matter how bad the payback is.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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Mission146
August 4th, 2021 at 9:32:05 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

By that thinking, he didn't prove jack, because you seem to interpret 'the long term' as eternity.
One can prove that card counting works without simulating or playing one single hand. It's actually fairly simple arithmetic.
With just a little bit of maths, and zero simulation, one can say with x% probability that a card counter will be within a range of outcomes where the outcome is 'in profit'
and as number of hands is increased WITHOUT PLAYING ANY, one could calculate and chart how x% varies win n, where count of hands is n.
All without computer simulation or hours of play.

Oh.... And EvenBob cannot beat Roulette $:o)

At -5% that so-called long run shows up fairly quickly.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear 
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
August 4th, 2021 at 9:45:33 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

At -5% that so-called long run shows up fairly quickly.

So True. I suppose EvenBob whups that long term by never playing at all.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.

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