WTflush
WTflush
Joined: Jan 27, 2020
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AxelWolfOnceDearsabrekewlj
January 7th, 2021 at 5:39:11 AM permalink
Quote: heatmap

You havenít thought about it enough to understand that when playing heads up, you can more likely take those blackjacks from the dealer because of how the positions of the cards work. In my opinion.



Math doesn't care about your opinion.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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WTflush
January 7th, 2021 at 4:27:24 PM permalink
Quote: Nimadamus

(snip)
4) How much is enough to start a blackjack card counting career? Lets say minimum bet at the table is $15, and blackjacks pay 6 to 5.


Short answer, I would want $135,000+ using the strategy below:

For the 6/5 BJ game I would want, as a minimum:
. Single-deck (anything above that and 6/5 is not worth playing as a counter).
. Knowledge of all the cards dealt / all the players' cards are dealt face-up
. Spread 1 or 15 units (see below)
. Bet 1 unit, when the true count is less than +4, and bet 15 units when the true count is +4 (or more).
. Use a "basic high - low" counting strategy
. To see half a deck of cards (or more) per shoe before the cards were shuffled.

The benefits of this strategy would be that:

. It gives an EV of about 0.81 units per 100 hands
. It gives an average return on all money invested/wagered of 0.280...%

The cons/potential cons of this strategy would be that:

. You probably would need to have very short sessions, as using a strategy like the one above would (very likely) get you flagged by the casino pretty quickly.
. You would need a large "bank-roll", otherwise you would probably have an unacceptable Risk of Ruin (RoR), see below:
1) 1000 unit bank, if you were happy to have a RoR ~ 59.5%
2) 2000 unit bank, ... to have a RoR of ~ 35.4%
3) 5000 unit bank, ... to have a RoR of ~ 7.4%
4) 9000 unit bank, ... to have a RoR of ~ 0.9%
5) 10000 unit bank, ... to have a RoR of ~0.55%

Note: I don't know how to work out RoR myself, so I plugged 55.793 as the Standard deviation per 100 hands and the win rate as 0.808 units per 100 hands into a program (it would be great if someone could prove or disprove this for me, thanks).

Questions you need to ask:

1) Can I find any investment streams out there that have a better "risk to return on investment" profile?
2) For a $135,000 investment, is ~ $12.13 in EV per 100 hands worth all this work?
3) Have I done enough counting practice to minimize mistakes?
Note: I would personally have answered no to question 3) when using this strategy (because you would have to be as close to a perfect counter and BJ player as humanly possible, for such a low edge, IMO)
4) As someone else pointed out, 6/5 BJ is terrible (around 1.2% house edge for a "good" 6/5 game, for the basic strategy player), so are there any good 3/2 games near me?
5 a) When using something like the above strategy, how much cover play will I need (this is hard to answer yourself, you will need to ask around)?
5 b) Will the costs (if any) of the cover play(s) that I plan to use turn my core +EV strategy into a -EV one, overall?

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Spelling not checked

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Update (~435 pm, Pac Time):

I forgot to mention these important rules that I used were: dealer hits on soft 17, split to 4 hands, no double after split , and you can only double down on 10 or 11,
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 7, 2021
fantom
fantom
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January 8th, 2021 at 7:31:24 AM permalink
Shorter answer: Bring all the money you have, because over time you will need it..

Assuming that you could find such a game:
6:5
Single deck
50 % penetration
H17
Double down only on 10 and 11
No DAS
No surrender (assumed, not mentioned above)
No RSA (assumed, not mentioned above)

Spread of 1 - 15 @ $10 game: $10-$150
Spread of 1 - 15 @ $25 game: $25-$375
Maybe don't bring so much after all. Assuming there is such a game, somewhere, how long would you last before getting a tap on the shoulder with such a spread?
Then again, how often does a 50% pen game, single deck, get to a +4 count?

There ought to be a warning on responses like this. At least "your mileage will probably be less." Much less.
moses
moses
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February 10th, 2021 at 10:54:20 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

There are other players at the table? I've never noticed.

If there are? I'm a spectator.
fantom
fantom
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February 10th, 2021 at 10:57:55 AM permalink
The point was that other players are irrelevant. They deserve no consideration in deciding how you play and have absolutely no impact on your overall success. If you are never going to play unless you are one-on-one with the dealer, you certainly are going to be a spectator for a lot of the time.

What do you do when someone else sits down at a table where you are playing by yourself?
moses
moses
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February 10th, 2021 at 11:04:28 AM permalink
Quote: fantom

The point was that other players are irrelevant. They deserve no consideration in deciding how you play and have absolutely no impact on your overall success. If you are never going to play unless you are one-on-one with the dealer, you certainly are going to be a spectator for a lot of the time.

What do you do when someone else sits down at a table where you are playing by yourself?


I watch. Usually they lose all their money and leave in a very short amount of time. If not? I go find another game.
fantom
fantom
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February 10th, 2021 at 11:16:16 AM permalink
I don't know where you play, but now especially there are not a lot of one-on-one situations out there such that you have the luxury of getting up anytime someone else comes along and wants a seat next to you. Maybe at high-limit tables or off-hours.

I've seen players ask to raise the minimum at a table so as to chase other folks away, but as a rule I am forced to take what I can get. I prefer heads-up play, but that doesn't happen often.

If I'm in a good place in the shoe, I don't like other people coming it to dilute the positive "karma", but there's nothing I can do about it, and I'm not going to give up an advantage such that I move somewhere else and have to reset to zero.
moses
moses
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February 10th, 2021 at 11:24:58 AM permalink
For the game desrcibed in the OP? The 1961 LeRoy Van Dyke tune should be humming in his head. Just Walk On By.

IF you are going to play with more than one other person, then you should jump to double deck. Otherwise, with two people, you are spending most of your time watching the dealer shuffle.

Quality over quantity. CV Data is essential.

I thought we were talking about single deck. Of course 6 decks would be different.
Last edited by: moses on Feb 10, 2021
moses
moses
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February 10th, 2021 at 11:43:32 AM permalink
) For a $135,000 investment, is ~ $12.13 in EV per 100 hands worth all this work?

Definately a question one should ask themselves before they ever play their first hand.

For instance, KJ writes about his success/losses in the game. 21forme is a grinder from what I gather. It must be worth it to them. But it wouldn't be for me. And vice versa.
kewlj
kewlj
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February 10th, 2021 at 12:59:09 PM permalink
Ok, a couple things for this thread.

First it should be noted that Moses plays only single deck. He lives and plays one of the few places left that has decent single deck BJ (and from the sounds of things that may have changed a bit or started to change in the post covid era). And as we have learned in the past few days, only plays heads up. Apparently a session that he is playing where someone else joins the game is an "interruptted session", a term and concept several of us that play the game regularly were not familiar with. But in fairness to him, many of us (other players) don't have access to or play the single deck games that he does.

Question Moses: Does Reno not have NMSE for single deck? This would eliminate your "interrupted sessions". Many places in Vegas have it for double deck, I would think they should have it for single deck as well. It is not unreasonable to expect a new player joining to wait 3, or 4 rounds for the next shuffle. (Except those players trying to wong into a positive count.....they find it unreasonable. lol)

Next, Moses's experience aside, blackjack card counting, the way most of us play and the games we have access to is a game that involves significant variance. That would be swings in both directions that can last weeks, even months for a player that plays frequently. I have had 5 (five) different losing periods that lasted 4 months or longer and 30K or more.

Now that is not losing every single day. It usually consists of a significant short losing period and then slow climb back to where you were. That is what card counting is to most players playing double deck and 6 deck games....a grind. But that shows the kind of bankroll needed for most players (playing the more common 6 deck and double deck games) to sustain the variance associated with blackjack card counting. I guess the idea of substantial variance is as foreign to moses as some of his are to us.

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