gordonm888
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
  • Threads: 38
  • Posts: 2565
July 13th, 2020 at 7:17:43 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I would say the most likely reason for your question is confirmation bias. You see something you think may be happening, and then you make note when it does, but.... when it doesn't you just ignore it. If the dealer has 10 consecutive hands with NO 21, you don't even notice. You may not notice if he has 100 such hands. But if there are 3 consecutive drawn 21s, you are all over it.



SOOPOO, I love you, guy, but you didn't read what I posted, which I repeat here:

"The odds of the dealer getting BJ on those 10 consecutive deals on which HeatMap changed the number of "hands" was roughly one in 100 million. If the shuffler was completely random."

So, I maintain that confirmation bias cannot be evoked to explain something that is a 1/100,000,000 occurrence -because he should never see something so rare. He claims that it occurred exactly when he changed the number of spots to be dealt to 10 consecutive times -which, if true, is proof of a non-random deal.
So many better men, a few of them friends, were dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things lived on, and so did I.
heatmap
heatmap 
Joined: Feb 12, 2018
  • Threads: 161
  • Posts: 1116
July 13th, 2020 at 10:58:32 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

SOOPOO, I love you, guy, but you didn't read what I posted, which I repeat here:

"The odds of the dealer getting BJ on those 10 consecutive deals on which HeatMap changed the number of "hands" was roughly one in 100 million. If the shuffler was completely random."

So, I maintain that confirmation bias cannot be evoked to explain something that is a 1/100,000,000 occurrence -because he should never see something so rare. He claims that it occurred exactly when he changed the number of spots to be dealt to 10 consecutive times -which, if true, is proof of a non-random deal.



Ive also been really lucky at that casino, i didnt make much money but i started off with an 8 card 20 win i think, followed by 4 blackjacks, the fourth of which was a PUSH
technics
technics
Joined: Jul 28, 2014
  • Threads: 4
  • Posts: 19
July 14th, 2020 at 9:51:08 AM permalink
Quote: DogHand

SOOPOO,

According to an old post by the late, great MathProf over at bj21, for a 6D S17 game, these are the percentage probabilities of the dealer drawing to a 3, 4, or 5 card 21:

3-card 21: 5.165%
4-card 21: 1.778%
5-card 21: 0.3093%

Link: /boards/green-chip-forums/sub_boards/green-chip-general/topics/odds-of (scroll down to MathProf's post).

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand



So it would take extreme variance for this to occur naturally over many sessions, right Soopoo?

  • Jump to: