ssho88
ssho88
Joined: Oct 16, 2011
  • Threads: 41
  • Posts: 434
May 6th, 2020 at 7:26:21 PM permalink
Hi,

Is there any Blackjack House Edge Calculator/spreadsheet that can handle depleted Shoe ? Meaning it can calculate the "overall house edge" (and its relevant basic strategy)for any give shoe composition within seconds. With such info, we can calculate exactly(based on Kelly criterion) how much we should bet in next round . . . betting correlation = 1 !

There are 2 methods that can ESTIMATE the overall house edge :-

1) Based on True count - we can estimate the house edge.
2) Based on EOR - Add up all the pre-determined EORs of all removed cards, then add to the full deck house edge to get net house edge.

However, both above methods are not that accurate.

I need exact house edge after each round for online betting(more than 1.5 million daily betting turnover), MGP can handle this but it take too long to calculate it . . .


James
Last edited by: ssho88 on May 6, 2020
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
  • Threads: 31
  • Posts: 2052
May 7th, 2020 at 1:32:53 PM permalink
see this thread as it can be quite complicated to write the code depending on how accurate you need the info - https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/gambling/34652-blackjack-hand-calculator
ssho88
ssho88
Joined: Oct 16, 2011
  • Threads: 41
  • Posts: 434
Thanks for this post from:
heatmap
May 7th, 2020 at 4:02:32 PM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

see this thread as it can be quite complicated to write the code depending on how accurate you need the info - https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/gambling/34652-blackjack-hand-calculator



Thanks for your reply.

I found a link here : https://youtu.be/UEA46N9jl00

It's a spreadsheet that can calculate the blackjack house edge. Anyone here can share it ? Is ithis spreadsheet provided by WIZARD(Michael Shackleford) ?
gordonm888
gordonm888 
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
  • Threads: 38
  • Posts: 2482
Thanks for this post from:
heatmap
May 7th, 2020 at 4:42:54 PM permalink
Quote: ssho88

Hi,

Is there any Blackjack House Edge Calculator/spreadsheet that can handle depleted Shoe ? Meaning it can calculate the "overall house edge" (and its relevant basic strategy)for any give shoe composition within seconds. With such info, we can calculate exactly(based on Kelly criterion) how much we should bet in next round . . . betting correlation = 1 !

There are 2 methods that can ESTIMATE the overall house edge :-

1) Based on True count - we can estimate the house edge.
2) Based on EOR - Add up all the pre-determined EORs of all removed cards, then add to the full deck house edge to get net house edge.

However, both above methods are not that accurate.

I need exact house edge after each round for online betting(more than 1.5 million daily betting turnover), MGP can handle this but it take too long to calculate it . . .


James



James,

The EOR method should, of course, provide a more accurate estimate than the True Count method. In general, I think the linearity assumptions in EOR holds up surprising well over depletion of multiple cards, but I agree that its accuracy is limited and becomes "Fuzzy" after depletion of a large number (100s !) of cards.

Let me propose a conceptual framework for a spreadsheet method that should greatly improve the EOR method. Although it would fall short of the perfect calculational precision that you aspire to, I think it would provide the best capability ever developed for real-time calculations of EV/House Edge vs shoe composition.

My Proposed Method
The basic idea is to split the starting hands of blackjack into 13 distinct categories:

1. when dealer has a blackjack and player doesn't
2. when player has a blackjack and dealer doesn't
3. When both player and dealer have a blackjack
4 - 11. When dealer has a 2, 3, 4, . . ., 9 showing and player has any hand other than a blackjack.
12, 13 When dealer has a Ten showing or an Ace showing, but does not have blackjack, and player has any hand other than a blackjack.

a) For a depleted shoe, the probabilities for categories 1-3 can be calculated explicitly from the abundance of aces and tens and the outcomes (EVs) of those hands are unambiguous.
b) For categories, 4-13 the probabilities of occurrence can also be calculated explicitly from the card composition of a depleted shoe, i.e., the higher the abundance of 9's the more you will be playing versus a dealer 9.
c) Use a simulator to calculate the EOR for all ten of the cards ranks for each of the hand categories 4-13, above. Example: do simulator runs where dealer always has a 9 showing and calculate the EOR of all ten ranks of cards for the "vs 9" category (making a rule to ignore any instances in which player's first two cards are blackjack.)

This would give you the tools to calculate the probabilities and player EV for each of the 13 categories of BJ hands defined above, which you can then combine via algebra (on a simple spreadsheet) into a composite player EV at any point in the shoe depletion. The spreadsheet would be small and the calculation would be instantaneous.

The problem with the standard EOR approach for player EV as a function of shoe composition is that you are calculating the EOR of the difference between factors/influences that have opposite effects on Player EV. For example:

Consider the EOR of Ten on the House Edge/ Player EV. An abundance of Tens:
1. increases player EV by increasing probability of BJs (although this element of EOR is clearly affected by the abundance of aces)
2. decreases player EV because the player will be playing versus a dealer Ten more frequently
3. increases Player EV when facing a dealer 2-6, because dealer must hit a hard 12-16, while player will stand on those stiff hands (most of the time.)
4. decreases Player EV when facing a dealer 7-A, because player will be hitting hard 12-16 and more frequently going bust before the dealer has an opportunity to go bust.
5. Increases Player EV when he doubles his bet with a Hard 9, 10 or 11, because that is a very favorable card when doubling. Note however, that this increment of advantage from doubling is reduced when facing a dealer 10 because basic strategy is that you don't double on a 9 or ten vs 10 and the advantage for doubling on 11 vs 10 is small. However, this "the contribution of doubling to the EOR of 10" is more important when facing 2-6, when the advantages of doubling are great. However, when tens are more abundant, you will be placing "vs 10" more often than usual; and less often "vs" 2-6."

So, using the standard EORs methodology, all of these influences on the player EV are combined together and you then look at the effect of removing tens on the net summation of all these influences. It is similar to taking the EOR on the difference between two large numbers each of which are effected in different and sometimes opposite ways by the removal of the card, rather than performing an EOR on the large numbers themselves and then taking the difference.

In my proposed method, you can use straightforward algebra to calculate the probabilities of blackjacks (correctly combining the effects of an abundance of aces with the abundance of Tens), and to calculate the frequency of playing vs 10, vs 6, etc. This takes the probabilities of situations (which are affected by the removal of cards) and removes them from the lumped EOR calculations and instead yields mathematically perfect values for the probabilities of hand categories as I have defined them.

And then, when you use a simulator to calculate the EOR of 10's when facing a dealer 6, you are able to get a much cleaner analysis of how the players advantage from not hitting Hard 12-16 vs 6 and of doubling 9-11 vs 6 is affected by the abundance of tens.

The major drawback of my proposed method is that it will require 110 simulations to calculate the EORs of each of the ten ranks of cards when facing a dealer up card of 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. 9, Ten and Ace (10 baseline calculations and 100 EOR calculations.) But, from what you have posted, I suspect that you are excellent at simulations. ; )

Feedback and comments would be appreciated.
So many better men, a few of them friends, were dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things lived on, and so did I.
ssho88
ssho88
Joined: Oct 16, 2011
  • Threads: 41
  • Posts: 434
May 7th, 2020 at 6:00:23 PM permalink
Hi Gordon,

Thanks for your reply.

I will go through your write up and I hope I able/capable to understand it.
ssho88
ssho88
Joined: Oct 16, 2011
  • Threads: 41
  • Posts: 434
Thanks for this post from:
charliepatrickheatmap
May 7th, 2020 at 9:52:00 PM permalink
Hi Gordon,

This link can generate HE for depeleted shoe : http://www.bjstrat.net/cgi-bin/cdca.cgi


After removed eight "small" card, the no of remaining cards = 408 and the HE changed from -0.715% to -0.184%

See the results : https://ibb.co/wzPq0X3
gordonm888
gordonm888 
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
  • Threads: 38
  • Posts: 2482
Thanks for this post from:
heatmap
May 7th, 2020 at 11:38:05 PM permalink
Quote: ssho88

Hi Gordon,

This link can generate HE for depleted shoe : http://www.bjstrat.net/cgi-bin/cdca.cgi


After removed eight "small" card, the no of remaining cards = 408 and the HE changed from -0.715% to -0.184%

See the results : https://ibb.co/wzPq0X3



I use that Bjstrat calculator all the time, although I had forgotten it had that calculated HE in the corner of its output table. I honestly don't know how that HE is instantaneously calculated! I wonder if it uses EORs?

Maybe that online calculator is the capability you are looking for. Although the user interface for removing cards from the deck is kinda clunky.
So many better men, a few of them friends, were dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things lived on, and so did I.
ssho88
ssho88
Joined: Oct 16, 2011
  • Threads: 41
  • Posts: 434
Thanks for this post from:
heatmap
May 8th, 2020 at 2:19:01 AM permalink
Hi Gordon,

I used other software MGP's BJ CA, with removal of same eight small cards, the HE changed from -0.717% to -0.814%, MGP also generated the relevant basic strategy and EORs. However, it take much longer time and not practical for real time online betting.

See the results : https://ibb.co/gD7QVYZ

May be you can help to verify the accuracy of the results ?
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 78
  • Posts: 882
Thanks for this post from:
heatmap
May 8th, 2020 at 5:03:30 AM permalink
Before I started using bjstrat and MGP, here is one that I used in the past >>> http://www.bewersdorff-online.de/black-jack/

Important note: the starting "expected gain" is not the same as bjstrat or MGP, but the EORs are similar, so it may still be helpful.

Main thing I liked about it: fairly quick and easy to use.

Maybe someone on this site can explain why the starting EV is different, could be because the bewersdorff site is using "old estimates from the 60's" (just a guess though, I really have no clue why it is different)

Also, I think I had a better reply almost completed, but my browser closed on me when I was just about finished.

Hope this was helpful or at least interesting
gordonm888
gordonm888 
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
  • Threads: 38
  • Posts: 2482
Thanks for this post from:
heatmap
May 8th, 2020 at 8:32:48 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Before I started using bjstrat and MGP, here is one that I used in the past >>> http://www.bewersdorff-online.de/black-jack/

Important note: the starting "expected gain" is not the same as bjstrat or MGP, but the EORs are similar, so it may still be helpful.

Main thing I liked about it: fairly quick and easy to use.

Maybe someone on this site can explain why the starting EV is different, could be because the bewersdorff site is using "old estimates from the 60's" (just a guess though, I really have no clue why it is different)

Also, I think I had a better reply almost completed, but my browser closed on me when I was just about finished.

Hope this was helpful or at least interesting



Thank you very much for posting this. I have never seen this caclulator before and it is very interesting.

Regarding "expected gain": It seems this Danish calculator does not allow double on soft hands? Is this correct?
So many better men, a few of them friends, were dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things lived on, and so did I.

  • Jump to: