Joined: Apr 20, 2020
• Posts: 1
April 20th, 2020 at 12:12:32 AM permalink
I wanted the input from the more knowledgeable AP's about the concept of "inverse spreading" also known as "Grifter Gambit."

The theory is (when playing HEADS UP) instead of betting 1 unit at TC < 1, we bet 3 hands of .33 units at TC < 1. This accomplishes a higher expectation PER ROUND, because we metaphorically eat through the bad counts to get to the good counts quicker. Also, the concept is we move our max bet out to 1 hand of x units as to get more rounds in +EV situations.

RESULTS: Higher Win-rate, lower ROR bankroll restrictions, camouflage. (according to zengrifter)

Normal High-Low​ Inverse hand spreading​ difference​ 6d, S17, DAS, 3/4 PEN, 8-1 spread max bet at TC>3=8u (TOP)

(BOTTOM)
TC<1=3x1u
TC>=1, TC<2= 2x2u
TC>=2, TC<3= 2x3u
TC>=3 = 1x24u

Expectation
0.6172%​
0.9028%​
+46.2735%​

Std. dev./round
\$45.51​
\$46.25​
+1.6157%​

Avg. bet size.
\$31.29​
\$32.16​
+2.7934%​

Win rate/hour
\$19.31​
\$29.04​
+50.3591%​

5% ROR 8 hour trip bankroll
\$2,392.50​
\$2,370.50​
-0.9195%​

\$16,067.21​
\$11,033.94​
-31.3263%​

Does this look correct? I know the original spread is sub-optimal and you math wizards can find your optimal betting spread, I just wanted to introduce this concept for those who didn't know of it and to get comments on its validity.
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
• Posts: 9295
April 20th, 2020 at 6:17:21 AM permalink
Maybe just semantics, but if you are at a \$15 table, say, What are you calling a unit? If my lowest bet will be \$15, that's what I call a unit. It seems like you are just starting at 3 units, or \$45. And going down to 1 unit when doing your spreading to 3 hands play. So if you bet \$450, which is ten times your ORIGINAL wager, you, in my mind are not spreading 1-10, but rather, actually spreading 1-30. If you can get away with that, great.
GMan
Joined: Jan 5, 2013
• Posts: 78
April 20th, 2020 at 8:49:13 AM permalink
Try it after Covid-19 and let us know if you survive spreading 3x\$25 to 1x\$600
G Man
charliepatrick
Joined: Jun 17, 2011