Can this game be profitable?
November 28th, 2019 at 9:47:44 AM
permalink
The best rules I have seen in a long time:
$10 minimum
3:2
DAS
S17
Surrender
NO RSA
Except: 8 deck, 81% penetration (1.5 deck cutoff)
Assuming Basic Strategy, Sweet 16 and Fab 4, my simulations seem to indicate something like $12 per hour, so to answer my own question, NO.
Count Bet
<1 $10
2 $20
3 $40
4 $70
>5 $95
Anybody want to give me some false expectations that it can be any better than that?
8 decks. Kiss of death
$10 minimum
3:2
DAS
S17
Surrender
NO RSA
Except: 8 deck, 81% penetration (1.5 deck cutoff)
Assuming Basic Strategy, Sweet 16 and Fab 4, my simulations seem to indicate something like $12 per hour, so to answer my own question, NO.
Count Bet
<1 $10
2 $20
3 $40
4 $70
>5 $95
Anybody want to give me some false expectations that it can be any better than that?
8 decks. Kiss of death
November 28th, 2019 at 11:02:42 AM
permalink
Wong out
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
November 28th, 2019 at 12:42:04 PM
permalink
Off the top of my head, a 1-10 spread on that game with those rules should be worth way more than $12/100 hands
December 3rd, 2019 at 11:25:20 AM
permalink
So a few things here...
1) 8 deck only changes the house edge .02%, and the old adage is accurate... a lot of people that still work in a casino simply think 8 decks can't be counted. 8 decks generally yield lower target counts for side bets too. 8 deck games should not be dismissed.
2) With these rules you should absolutely be upping your bet at TC +1, you're missing EV to do so.
3) You're getting your max bet out too late. Generally it's a good rule to have your max bet out by TC +4.
4) Your biggest "hike" in spread should be at TC +3. This is where you essentially get the most bang for your buck frequency/advantage wise.
5) Even at $12/hour, that answered the question that the game is in fact profitable.
***Taking the above in to account and still spreading $10-$95, I'm showing I can get the EV up to ~$16/hour. Now take game selection in to account where you can play solo and up the hand speed, etc... You can absolutely make this game over $20/hour just on $10-$95.
6) Try higher denom's with even friendlier spreads: $25-$175 (only 1-7) with what I stated above comes in around $30/hour.
Always more and more ways to maximize your EV. So grateful for my teammate and my 300 hour blackjack run in the red... made us look at ALL of these things so much closer to realize there is TONS you can be doing to maximize your EV! Fiddle with spread, change denom's, learn more indices, focus on hands per hour, etc, etc, etc.
1) 8 deck only changes the house edge .02%, and the old adage is accurate... a lot of people that still work in a casino simply think 8 decks can't be counted. 8 decks generally yield lower target counts for side bets too. 8 deck games should not be dismissed.
2) With these rules you should absolutely be upping your bet at TC +1, you're missing EV to do so.
3) You're getting your max bet out too late. Generally it's a good rule to have your max bet out by TC +4.
4) Your biggest "hike" in spread should be at TC +3. This is where you essentially get the most bang for your buck frequency/advantage wise.
5) Even at $12/hour, that answered the question that the game is in fact profitable.
***Taking the above in to account and still spreading $10-$95, I'm showing I can get the EV up to ~$16/hour. Now take game selection in to account where you can play solo and up the hand speed, etc... You can absolutely make this game over $20/hour just on $10-$95.
6) Try higher denom's with even friendlier spreads: $25-$175 (only 1-7) with what I stated above comes in around $30/hour.
Always more and more ways to maximize your EV. So grateful for my teammate and my 300 hour blackjack run in the red... made us look at ALL of these things so much closer to realize there is TONS you can be doing to maximize your EV! Fiddle with spread, change denom's, learn more indices, focus on hands per hour, etc, etc, etc.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
December 3rd, 2019 at 12:48:48 PM
permalink
$12 per hour is considered "not profitable?"
December 3rd, 2019 at 1:11:43 PM
permalink
Quote: TigerWu$12 per hour is considered "not profitable?"
I’d judge that by the opportunity cost of playing. Is what you’re earning at this game more than what you’d earn doing something else during that time ?
December 3rd, 2019 at 2:07:43 PM
permalink
Quote: michael99000I’d judge that by the opportunity cost of playing. Is what you’re earning at this game more than what you’d earn doing something else during that time ?
Depends on if you want to make it your full time job or just something to do on the side.
I personally wouldn't do it full time, but if I knew how to count cards and wanted to kill 3 or 4 hours on the weekend, earning $36-$48 playing blackjack in that time is not a bad deal.
Heck, even if someone wanted to do it full time, $12 an hour is still more than minimum wage... WAY more depending on the state.
December 3rd, 2019 at 2:55:32 PM
permalink
And you can easily get that up to ~$15/hour pending spread adjustments I mentioned above. Let alone changing denoms. Def a profitable opportunity.Quote: TigerWu...Heck, even if someone wanted to do it full time, $12 an hour is still more than minimum wage... WAY more depending on the state.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
December 3rd, 2019 at 8:43:25 PM
permalink
Sounds basically like PA rules.
It can definitely be profitable but it varies greatly depending on h.ow you play. I'd say you have to be more aggressive to make it worthwhile. If you get backed off it's not that rare of an opportunity IMO. And typically you would feel some heat before getting backed off, at which point you should take a break or find a different pit.
I have spent a lot of hours playing at exactly the spread you mentioned, maxing a bit earlier. 10$ tables tend to be crowded and slow and indeed I was very close to my median EV of about 15$/hour (Il18 + Fab 4 100 hands/h PA rules).
Then I thought, screw it I'm gonna get bolder. There is often very little heat on shoe games. So I supercharged my game:
I switched to a 25$ min table. spreading to 400$ (2x200). often playing very fast alone or with 1 other player only at the table, meaning I easily averaged 200 Hands/h.
Picking fast dealer with sometimes better pen.
That made my EV over 100$/h.
Add to that potentially countable side bets, vulture plays, dealer mistakes and even comps/match play if you play rated and you can have a very profitable game.
It can definitely be profitable but it varies greatly depending on h.ow you play. I'd say you have to be more aggressive to make it worthwhile. If you get backed off it's not that rare of an opportunity IMO. And typically you would feel some heat before getting backed off, at which point you should take a break or find a different pit.
I have spent a lot of hours playing at exactly the spread you mentioned, maxing a bit earlier. 10$ tables tend to be crowded and slow and indeed I was very close to my median EV of about 15$/hour (Il18 + Fab 4 100 hands/h PA rules).
Then I thought, screw it I'm gonna get bolder. There is often very little heat on shoe games. So I supercharged my game:
I switched to a 25$ min table. spreading to 400$ (2x200). often playing very fast alone or with 1 other player only at the table, meaning I easily averaged 200 Hands/h.
Picking fast dealer with sometimes better pen.
That made my EV over 100$/h.
Add to that potentially countable side bets, vulture plays, dealer mistakes and even comps/match play if you play rated and you can have a very profitable game.
