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slackyhacky
slackyhacky
Joined: Jan 18, 2012
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December 3rd, 2019 at 3:37:47 PM permalink
Here is another thing about short sided casinos.

With advantage players, the casino will sometimes loose money, but as the documentary points out - there are soooo few advantage players.

So I would guess that shows like inside the edge would bring traffic.

I think most would get it wrong when trying to count cards. I would think casinos would encourage card counting because it would bring more players, most of them messing up and not getting it right.

Also, psychologically, if a Casino is soooo hard against card counters, I suspect it validates to the rest of us that it is a reliable strategy. But if the Casino said outright- good luck counting your cards! That may make me trust less my ability to make it work.
Wizard
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Wizard
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CrystalMathForager
December 3rd, 2019 at 4:57:14 PM permalink
Quote: slackyhacky

I think I can make a consistent ~$100/hr playing Craps, ...



I should probably know better than ask, but how?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
slackyhacky
slackyhacky
Joined: Jan 18, 2012
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December 3rd, 2019 at 6:57:55 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I should probably know better than ask, but how?



Controlled dice throwing....

jk.

If we are ever in the same room - i'll explain it. I'd love your input.
I came to a Wizard of Vegas get together a few years ago - I was late....and couldn't find you guys.

But just so I'm clear - which I haven't yet been clear - I haven't actually done it yet - because it takes a starting bankroll of $16,000 and I'm not yet in a place in life where I am willing to loose that on a theoretical situation.

However - here is my question for you. If I play a game of craps on my phone (and i think the random number generator is true), and I can start with 16,000 and get to 100K over and over - how many times reproducing that result would it take in order to say - "okay, this money management system seems to have an advantage. I'll think i'll risk my 16K"?

By the way, I think the method is similar to the method I think I read about that you used to win a craps tournament. It's better than a martingale of the don't, but uses similar elements.

I paid someone to program wincraps for me to test it on there - but it is a complicated system and we couldn't get it quit right. Also, who is that guy that continued your challenge about beating the casino and offering 10K or something? I asked him to do the challenge - but said - he would have to guarantee the system was played exactly and he responded "I don't have to guarantee shit!"

Anyway regardless any of that - my MAIN point is - being in the casino all day every day does NOT seem like a great way to live out your days - even if you are winning most of those days, and winning a good amount.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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Thanks for this post from:
slackyhacky
December 4th, 2019 at 12:10:09 AM permalink
Quote: slackyhacky



I think I can make a consistent ~$100/hr playing Craps, but I almost make that with my job - why would I do it in a crappy casino?

At first I was going to say why is it always the guys who don't need money and love their jobs that have all the "winning" gambling systems?

But after reading your other post I'm going to say...

And yet you don't even have a spare $16,000 bankroll to do this.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
slackyhacky
slackyhacky
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December 4th, 2019 at 11:39:05 PM permalink
Haha - touche!

I have no idea if it is a winning system. I'm saying that I "think" it would work based on my simulations. I"ve asked (several times on this forum actually) how many times it would take before you would believe it. Obviously, if i was SO sure it would work, I'd find $16,000.

But I would like a good answer to that question.

Take an assumption (just like we all do when we watch The Expanse, or The Orville, or Star Wars) - and that assumption is that someone defied current understanding of math - and came up with a winning system....how many times staring at 16k and ending at 100k (on a 5 dollar min table, betting a $5 pass with max odds) would you think someone would have to do this before saying....okay...I think this would work. Another question - how many rolls would it take for someone to say - "okay, this is beyond simple chance."

My whole point was not to talk about my craps playing - but to just say - even IF it worked...doing it in the casino is not a great way to make money.

Plumbers make way more than me by the way. Don't they make like $200/hr?
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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December 5th, 2019 at 2:25:13 AM permalink
Quote: slackyhacky

Haha - touche!

I have no idea if it is a winning system. I'm saying that I "think" it would work based on my simulations. I"ve asked (several times on this forum actually) how many times it would take before you would believe it. Obviously, if i was SO sure it would work, I'd find $16,000.

Fair enough, I respect the fact that you admit you don't know and you are just asking questions. You seem to understand that there could(IS) be some confirmation bias going on. You're not overly assertive that something is true just based on something you've kinda observed, unlike some people we know(WMW).

As far as the rest of your questions I don't have an answer. Obviously it would take a lot less testing if you could somehow predict what you think is going to happen and that happens more frequently than it should.

I have no idea how much plumbers make, but I can't imagine I would pay him $200 an hour. I'll make my way down the street and get me a certified Home Depot immigrant.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
tyler498
tyler498
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December 10th, 2019 at 5:38:47 PM permalink
Just saw the movie, I really enjoyed it.
I definitely agree with the above comments that it was short. It felt too short, which is the mark of a good movie, but also a sign it is simply too short.
Thumbs up. I was familiar with most of the concepts described in the movie, but I still learned a lot about how he executed it. The trip planning, the number of casinos where you can do that was surprising. I guess you just have to bet more and most tables will be viable.
I wasn't expecting them to go into hole carding, shuffle tracking and ace sequencing. One thing that left me perplexed is in the part where they explain shuffle tracking and ace sequencing. It is obviously just staged to explain the concept. But that explanation only works for that ridiculously weak shuffle they had in the video. I can't believe there's any place that shuffles like that! what am I missing?
kewlj
kewlj
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November 28th, 2020 at 7:33:55 PM permalink
Ok, so I know I am late to the party here, but I wasn't on this forum last year when this was discussed and only fairly recently got around to watching this documentary.

I haven't seen a documentary or movie on blackjack that I liked and thought was realistic until Inside the edge. I call what KC did, the "slash and burn" style of play. It came about in the early.mid 2000;s when new casinos and jurisdiction were exploding's here in the US. The idea was to play super aggressively at higher stakes until you are told "no more". Then just move on to the next place, the idea being there are just too many locations.

KC clearly demonstrated the problem with this approach. Technology and the databases working against you. Your history of heat, backoffs, barrings arrives at the new destination before you do, as evident by a number of very quick backoffs and 86ings (within minutes). One place, I forget where, he didn't even get in the front door. lol

In addition, this film/documentary show just what the variance of advantage blackjack play can be like. KC hit 600k, about a third of the way through his year on the road, only to lose 50%, 300k back fairly quickly. He then spent months and months recouping most of that 300k loss. I think one of the most important statements he made was that anyone who plays this game for a living and has done so for awhile, will encounter months long losing periods. Amen to that!

The final thing that was important about this film was it clearly showed just how sleazy casinos and the casino industry can be. The intimidating and rough backoffs and barrings when there is no need for that. The lying at numerous locations stating how it the law says a player has to show ID. AS Mr. Nersesian said, no where is that the law, except maybe Indian Casinos where they make their own laws. One pit woman emphatically told KC "not to argue with her, she knows the law. it is her job".

And several places refusing to cash chips which is flat out illegal, forcing KC to go to gaming for help. I can only hope when gaming showed up to help get the chips that a fine went along with that, but I doubt that occurred.

In conclusion, This film shows exactly why I don't think "slash and burn" is a valid strategy. I mean if you are just out to get what you can for 3-6 month....maybe. But anyone interested in any kind of longevity, needs to figure how to keep your play in the 'tolerated' zone.

Kudos to KC for a realistic look at 'Slash and burn' blackjack. Congrats to Mike on his appearances.
Minty
Minty
Joined: Jan 23, 2015
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November 29th, 2020 at 1:47:54 AM permalink
I know there are prominent people in gambling who advocate for this style of play or at least claim it makes more money in the long-term than playing with more cover and less aggressively. Munchkin and Colin Jones being the first two that come to mind. I'm not entirely comfortable with playing till a backoff or barring and think there's a middle ground between longevity and aggressive play.

The documentary was my favorite movie to reference counting in that it's not sensationalized like 21 and it doesn't push the myth that you have to be a genius to do it or that you win all the time. Really well made.
"Just because I'm not doing anything illegal, doesn't mean I won't have to defend myself someday." -Chip Reese
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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November 29th, 2020 at 7:06:43 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

Ok, so I know I am late to the party here, but I wasn't on this forum last year when this was discussed and only fairly recently got around to watching this documentary.

I haven't seen a documentary or movie on blackjack that I liked and thought was realistic until Inside the edge. I call what KC did, the "slash and burn" style of play. It came about in the early.mid 2000;s when new casinos and jurisdiction were exploding's here in the US. The idea was to play super aggressively at higher stakes until you are told "no more". Then just move on to the next place, the idea being there are just too many locations.

KC clearly demonstrated the problem with this approach. Technology and the databases working against you. Your history of heat, backoffs, barrings arrives at the new destination before you do, as evident by a number of very quick backoffs and 86ings (within minutes). One place, I forget where, he didn't even get in the front door. lol

In addition, this film/documentary show just what the variance of advantage blackjack play can be like. KC hit 600k, about a third of the way through his year on the road, only to lose 50%, 300k back fairly quickly. He then spent months and months recouping most of that 300k loss. I think one of the most important statements he made was that anyone who plays this game for a living and has done so for awhile, will encounter months long losing periods. Amen to that!

The final thing that was important about this film was it clearly showed just how sleazy casinos and the casino industry can be. The intimidating and rough backoffs and barrings when there is no need for that. The lying at numerous locations stating how it the law says a player has to show ID. AS Mr. Nersesian said, no where is that the law, except maybe Indian Casinos where they make their own laws. One pit woman emphatically told KC "not to argue with her, she knows the law. it is her job".

And several places refusing to cash chips which is flat out illegal, forcing KC to go to gaming for help. I can only hope when gaming showed up to help get the chips that a fine went along with that, but I doubt that occurred.

In conclusion, This film shows exactly why I don't think "slash and burn" is a valid strategy. I mean if you are just out to get what you can for 3-6 month....maybe. But anyone interested in any kind of longevity, needs to figure how to keep your play in the 'tolerated' zone.

Kudos to KC for a realistic look at 'Slash and burn' blackjack. Congrats to Mike on his appearances.



I still think the crash and burn can work for much longer than 3 to 6 months if you are willing to travel anywhere that there is a game. Too many people limit themselves to the U.S.
Order from chaos

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