Blackjack Switch

A few questions on BJ switch, so I've numbered them:

1. Is there a guide showing what cards ought to be switched in a game of BJ switch? While on the topic, how many have played this game?
2. From what I've seen on the Wiz's odds chart, the house edge is about 1/3 of many regular BJ tables? Anyone have luck at BJ switch with these odds?
3. Why isn't there a line out the door at casino royale?
4. Why oh why do you not split 8's against a 10 in BJ switch? Does a push on dealer 22 really make it more worthwhile to hit on 16? Cam someone explain this to the mathematically challenged?

Blackjack Switch? Sorry, I can barely figure out real Blackjack.
And I think that is why it can have such a low nominal house edge. So many players really don't know what to do to play the game properly so what some might refer to as the Real-World House Edge is probably quite higher.

Casino Royale? I think it has a reputation as a Grunge Joint and many people come to Vegas for a vacation and want to be in a more upscale "splurge-oriented mode" of pseudo-high-roller or something. Most vacationers don't seem to want things like Dennys, Subway and bottled beer in an overly crowded setting. They can get that at home. I know Casino Royale offers 100x at craps, but if its reputation is that its a jammed-up game in a crowded grunge joint many people will avoid it. Its probably the same thinking about Blackjack Switch. If it is offered at Casino Royale at some great bargain of a house edge, fine...but I am not going to even consider it if I happen to be next door at The Venetian where I might be playing real blackjack and probably am not playing it all that well anyway because Basic Strategy is a challenge for me even when I am sober.

Quote: ChallengedByOdds

A few questions on BJ switch, so I've numbered them:

1. Is there a guide showing what cards ought to be switched in a game of BJ switch? While on the topic, how many have played this game?
2. From what I've seen on the Wiz's odds chart, the house edge is about 1/3 of many regular BJ tables? Anyone have luck at BJ switch with these odds?
3. Why isn't there a line out the door at casino royale?
4. Why oh why do you not split 8's against a 10 in BJ switch? Does a push on dealer 22 really make it more worthwhile to hit on 16? Cam someone explain this to the mathematically challenged?

1. What I did was superimpose the probabilities against a standard blackjack players card. When the cards are dealt, I compare the probabilities of both hands against the dealer up card and determine how to switch. I've brought the card with me and used it without any probabilities.

2. I've had decent luck at switch. There's no point of counting this game since you have the power of switching. But you have to play the strategy.

3. There's no line out the door because you can't get an advantage of this game through counting. It's twice as expensive as regular blackjack. And the strategy is hard to learn. It's the same reason that there isn't a line to play Spanish either though the odds are comparable. Plus you'd be better off doing 100x odds at Craps. The Casino Royale ain't exactly the best joint on the strip either. But I played Switch at Casino Royale last time I was there and lost my $200 and left.

4. I can answer this. Your expected result on hitting a 16 on a 10 in switch is (-.558). The odds of winning by splitting a 16 to two 8s in switch against the dealer's 10 is (-.292 x 2 = -.594). Essentially, by hitting the 16, the odds of you making your hand is 38.5%. The dealer's extra out card by drawing to 22 lowers the overall expectation enough to make hitting more desirable.

The power of 22 cannot be underestimated and I have had lots of arguments at the table over the plays I make. The argument that players make is to play the same way in blackjack because the 22 is a push and doesn't matter. Simply put, the dealer has an extra out and that affects the way basic strategy works because every time the dealer hits to 22, instead of winning, you push. Think of it this way: when you have draw to 21 in regular blackjack, the only way you could push is if the dealer also drew to 21. The dealer now has double the chance to push you because he can draw to 22. These pushes lower the entire expectation of the game by 6.91% (which is offset by the player's ability to switch your cards). With that magnitude of shift in the game, basic strategy must change. The biggest change is hitting a 12 on a 4 and a 13 on a 2. It seems counter-intuitive: why hit when the dealer can push or bust you? It's because a push is not a win, so you have to "go for it" and try to improve your hand because it's more likely that the dealer will make their hand.

From what I can see, AFTER the decision to switch has been made, your hands have across the board less 'value' than hands in regular blackjack. Thus the main strategy difference for the 2nd round (the regular hit/stand/double/split decision) is less betting aggression in blackjack switch. This can be seen in all sorts have somewhat borderline hands where in regular blackjack you would split or double to get more money out but in blackjack switch you would not want to. The 22 push rule also causes the relative value of standing (compared to regular BJ) to go down more than the level of hitting in a few instances, causing a few normal BJ stands to change to hits.

In essence, you will overall draw better average hands in blackjack switch because you had the opportunity to switch (ie you will see more 11s, 19s 20s etc). But the SAME hand is worth more in regular BJ due to the push on 22 rule and the dealers ability to bust less often and push more.

What's an easy way to explain changes in basic strategy to Blackjack Switch? I have gotten in arguments from players and dealers about the changes in strategy. I don't mind getting into it with the players, but it bothers me when the dealers (who I know quite well) don't agree with me.

My current explanation is that the 22 for the dealer is very powerful and that basic strategy has to change. Their reply is "but a 22 is just a push - you don't lose and you don't win" so you change strategy. My response is that the entire Blackjack basic strategy is based on wins, losses, and ties, not just wins and losses and that the 22 gives you one more way to tie, but they just roll their eyes at me.

One good example I can think about is doubling an 11 on 10. In regular blackjack, this is a no brainer because you have more ways to win than they do. In switch it becomes questionable because if you double and get a 9 for example, they will tie you with a 10, any combination that gets them to 20, or any combination to get them to 22. This gives you alot more chances to tie where you would have normally won, and as a result, the expected result of doubling is reduced to the point where it is better for you to hit. Does that make sense?

I've had had the same arguments playing BJ Switch. However, it isn't nearly as bad as what you get in Spanish 21. The main different in Switch is that you double and split a lot less. The basic reason is that the expected value of every hand is less. Any additional money you put on the table is bucking worse odds than in regular blackjack. In the 11 vs. 10 example, the EV of both hitting and doubling is less than BJ, but the decrease is more doubling. Basically, don't put more money on the table unless you have the best of it.

Another difference is hitting more. This is even harder to explain. The way I think of it is that your expected value is less with any hand of 21 or less. However, if you bust, they can't take anything additional from you. Let's say you have 13 against a 2. If you stand, there is a 15.2% chance the push-22 rule will work against you. If you hit, it is only a 10.5% chance, because if you bust first, you don't care what the dealer gets. It makes hitting more attractive, by default.

At the Spanish 21 table, if I try to explain you should hit more, because of more small cards in the deck, nobody ever seems to understand the point. If that principle is too difficult for the average player to grasp, what hope is there in BJ Switch? If I get rebuked for not playing BJ basic strategy in Switch, I now just say I'm learning, and don't know what I'm doing.

Quote: boymimbo

... you can't get an advantage of this game through counting.

Why is this? Do they all use CSM's? Otherwise it seems you could get just as much advantage counting in this game as any other (or close anyway). I'm certainly no BJ expert, but I'd be curious to know why this is the case.

They deal it out of a shoe in Ontario. Intuitively, I think you could get an advantage counting, but have never seen a simulation confirming this.

Blackjack Switch has changed to a CSM at Casino Niagara.

Hmmm... as to the counting question, you are taught to bet larger when you know there are large cards remaining and to bet smaller when there are low cards remaining in the shoe.

In switch, first, there is the tie on 22. Secondly, you have the opportunity to switch your cards to more favorable situations, and you are dealt four cards instead of two. Because of this, the expected value of all hands is lower, but this is compensated by the ability to switch. This inevitably helps you when you are dealt low cards but hinders you when you are dealt high cards. That's why I don't think counting helps as much in this game as it does in regular blackjack.

I too would love to see an analysis on what strategies to change in positive and negative counts.

I've heard rumors that BJ Switch is countable, and some people are doing it. However, a strategy has never been published, at least as far as I know. Not even in Beyond Counting. I'm tempted to take that up that challenge myself.

Quote: Wizard

I've heard rumors that BJ Switch is countable, and some people are doing it. However, a strategy has never been published, at least as far as I know. Not even in Beyond Counting. I'm tempted to take that up that challenge myself.

Hmmm...

Not only would you need to adjust betting strategies and basic strategy switches, but you would also need to look at changes to switching strategies as well based on the count.

Good luck...

I think it would be much more cooler to come up with a counting strategy for Spanish.

I think a BJ switch counting strategy would be really interesting - Due to the two hands, it would automatically be easier to get more money on the table in good count situations. Plus its status as somewhat of a carnival game would bring less heat as well. You could probably use a very large spread, and since nobody really knows the best strategy anyway, certain strategy changes would not set off flags either like they can in regular BJ.

Quote: boymimbo

I think it would be much more cooler to come up with a counting strategy for Spanish.

There is one for Spanish 21. It is in the book 'The Pro's Guide to Spanish 21 and Australian Pontoon' by Katarina Walker.

Are there any switch games in Las Vegas that are not csm?

Quote: Ploppyman

Are there any switch games in Las Vegas that are not csm?

Lots of them. I would estimate at least 60% are on automatic shufflers.