familyguy96
familyguy96
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December 31st, 2018 at 10:04:14 PM permalink
I'm curious how much the average amount wagered per shoe would be for a given bet, for example $10 bet and fairly standard rules, 6D S17 LS 1D penetration, playing basic strategy. I would approximate there may be roughly 30 hands for one player, but the bets would greater than $10 x 30 hands or $300 because of splits and doubles.
billryan
billryan
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January 1st, 2019 at 8:21:06 AM permalink
Quote: nanumula

I'm curious how much the average amount wagered per shoe would be for a given bet, for example $10 bet and fairly standard rules, 6D S17 LS 1D penetration, playing basic strategy. I would approximate there may be roughly 30 hands for one player, but the bets would greater than $10 x 30 hands or $300 because of splits and doubles.



I may be wrong, but I think only your original bet is factored in. If you start with a single $10 bet, you might end up with $80 or more after some splits and double downs on a single hand but you only get rated as a $10 player.
familyguy96
familyguy96
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January 1st, 2019 at 2:11:47 PM permalink
Yes, that is correct. I guess what I was wondering was the percent increase on the original bet playing basic. It must be higher than $10 if that is the original flat bet amount for the shoe because of splits and doubles, but is it $15? 17? I would run a simulation to figure it out, but wanted to see if someones already knows.
billryan
billryan
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January 1st, 2019 at 2:24:44 PM permalink
You'd want to find the frequency of splits and doubling, and would vary depending on if DAS was permitted. If a doubled hand counts as $20, shouldn't a surrendered hand count as $5.
familyguy96
familyguy96
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January 1st, 2019 at 3:06:43 PM permalink
Yes. The frequencies of different splits and doubles i'm sure varies. The simulation would have to factor that in. I suppose a surrender would be half.
mustangsally
mustangsally
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January 1st, 2019 at 3:07:15 PM permalink
Quote: nanumula

It must be higher than $10 if that is the original flat bet amount for the shoe because of splits and doubles, but is it $15? 17? I would run a simulation to figure it out, but wanted to see if someones already knows.

I have simulated this before. here is what I got. 3 players in this sim with your rules and basic strategy

player123
hands313431343136
total bet342903487034480
avg bet/hand10.9412890911.1263560910.99489796


looks like about a 10% increase over the flat $10 bet
Sally

added: found a better simulation. 1000 shoes
6D S17 LS 1D penetration, playing basic strategy
--------------------------- summary [6 players] ----------------------------
P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6
hands 14003 13994 14019 13966 14006 13994
wins 5978 6000 5955 5985 5903 5978
losses 6211 6198 6222 6151 6239 6156
surrender 675 688 697 717 673 689
ties 1139 1108 1145 1113 1191 1171
gain -965 480 -160 380 -950 -35
max gain 595 1075 780 1175 1250 1930
min gain -1275 -225 -730 -635 -1155 -920
total bet 150635 150630 150365 149855 151435 150705
ave bet 10.76 10.76 10.73 10.73 10.81 10.77
gain/hand -0.07 0.03 -0.01 0.03 -0.07 0.00
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familyguy96
familyguy96
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January 1st, 2019 at 3:10:54 PM permalink
Great, thank you very much. This information will help me budget my bankroll a bit better.
mustangsally
mustangsally
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January 1st, 2019 at 3:21:17 PM permalink
I added a better simulation with a full table over 1000 shoes
Had to find the software that made this first.

looks like less than a 10% increase
Sally
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Ace2
Ace2
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January 1st, 2019 at 10:43:09 PM permalink
I think the Wiz has already calculated it.

He lists the house edge and element of risk for Atlantic City Blackjack as 43% and 38% respectively . That would mean the average total bet size is 43/38 -1 or 13% larger than original size. Thatís not such a precise number though since I was starting with only 2 digits. I think this ratio would only vary insignificantly with different BJ rules.

Also you can sort of back into the number by saying:

Blackjack is statistically congruent (same house edge and variance) to a binary game with a 43% chance of winning and a payout of 2.31 for 1. All BJ payouts are at 2 for 1 except for natural Blackjack payouts at 2.5 for 1, which happen about 5% of the time. Average payout then is .95 x 2 + .05 x 2.5 = 2.03 for 1. So if average payout is 2.03 but the binary equivalent payout is 2.31 per win, that also implies an average bet size of 1 - 231/203 or 13% more than original bet size.
Itís all about making that GTA
mustangsally
mustangsally
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January 2nd, 2019 at 12:20:34 AM permalink
Quote: nanumula

Great, thank you very much. This information will help me budget my bankroll a bit better.

Here is an adjustment. my sim was counting the number of hands played as more than the number of rounds played. that is correct. I showed the average bet per all hands played as about $10.80
below: D=Double down times
SP = split hands
--------------------------- summary [1000 shoes] ---------------------------
2184 N; 10516 B; 127409 DC; 5118 D17; 4860 D18;
4785 D19; 5968 D20; 2792 D21; 10089 U; 46312 R;
20345 W; 21074 L; 6125 PB; 3969 T; 2131 PN;
3520 PP; 1341 SP; 1184 SPW; 1143 SPL; 200 SPT;
4919 D; 2708 DW; 1858 DL; 353 DT; 0 I;
0 I+; 0 I-; 0 E; 2265 S; 514395 A;
251309 C;
---------------------------- summary [1 player] ----------------------------
P1
hands 47653
wins 20345
losses 21074
surrender 2265
ties 3969
gain 70
max gain 1305
min gain -1445
total bet 514395
ave bet 10.79
gain/hand 0.00

total bet: 514,395
rounds: 46,312
avg bet per round: 11.10716445

this is inline with my 1st sim found
that still looks like 10% to me for the given rules

Sally

just doing some simple math using
9% chance for a double down and 2% for a split (keep it simple and count all splits the same) we can get this
0.09*20=1.8
0.02*20=0.4
0.89*10=8.9
total avg bet:$11.10
Last edited by: mustangsally on Jan 2, 2019
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