Understanding basic strategy
November 2nd, 2018 at 3:45:31 AM
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Hello,
I might be cutting some corners here but I'm interested in understanding why the basic strategy is how it is - or the logic of it. So why I'm going to make a decision based into it in any given situation, when I'm making it. Not to question it but in my head I need to understand why.
I found some "background" information from Google but I play with European rules with 6 decks and I didn't manage to find anything related to that. Also Wizard's training game has different kinds of rules, which is actually why I began to think about this in the first place. So should I just study the logic from any kind of a chart with what I can find and just shift it to my home rules?
I might be cutting some corners here but I'm interested in understanding why the basic strategy is how it is - or the logic of it. So why I'm going to make a decision based into it in any given situation, when I'm making it. Not to question it but in my head I need to understand why.
I found some "background" information from Google but I play with European rules with 6 decks and I didn't manage to find anything related to that. Also Wizard's training game has different kinds of rules, which is actually why I began to think about this in the first place. So should I just study the logic from any kind of a chart with what I can find and just shift it to my home rules?
November 2nd, 2018 at 5:30:07 AM
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If you have Excel and can understand very basic probability, then see the derivation.
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
November 2nd, 2018 at 5:43:40 AM
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There are blackjack hand calculators on the Wizard of Odds site that tell you, for any hand you specify, what the EV is for any action you take -Stand, Hit, Double, Split, etc. Observing the trends in those EVs usually helps people to understand the underlying probabilities.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
November 2nd, 2018 at 6:57:29 AM
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Okay, thanks! Missed that hand calculator for some reason. I'll play with it.
November 3rd, 2018 at 12:19:58 PM
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As has been said you can work it out yourself (use an approximation that the chances of each card stay at 1/13, called infinite deck analysis) as it gives a great understanding. I first did it using computer printout paper and a calculator on a long flight, but if you understand spreadsheets it can be reasonable to achieve.
Work out the chances of the dealer getting to 21,20,19,18,17,Bust from hand totals 21, 20, 19... 4, then soft totals 21....1. This gives the chances of the player winning [by standing] on various totals.
The next phase is to work out whether it's best to hit, stand, double split etc based on the 10 possible outcomes of taking a card.
Work out the chances of the dealer getting to 21,20,19,18,17,Bust from hand totals 21, 20, 19... 4, then soft totals 21....1. This gives the chances of the player winning [by standing] on various totals.
The next phase is to work out whether it's best to hit, stand, double split etc based on the 10 possible outcomes of taking a card.
